Cork's traffic congestion to worsen despite delivery of key public transport projects, analysis shows
The impacts from traffic congestion in Cork are bad and are going to get worse, with the economic cost set to hit almost €100m by 2040, the Department of Transport has said.
Furthermore, even delivering key infrastructure projects like BusConnects may only ease congestion 'temporarily', as population and economic growth put greater demands on travel infrastructure in the city.
The department's strategic research and analysis division has published a new paper on the economic cost of congestion in Ireland's 'regional cities', looking particularly at Cork, Galway and Waterford.
It builds on a previous study of Dublin, which projected the economic cost in the capital could increase four-fold to more than €1.5bn by 2040.
'The results indicate that congestion will increase significantly over the coming decades across the regional cities, primarily driven by population and economic growth,' it said.
'Investment in transport infrastructure, particularly large-scale public transport projects, will likely lead to a reduction in the rate of increase in the cost of congestion.
However, increased congestion is an unavoidable consequence of continued economic and population growth.
In Cork, it estimated the cost of congestion across the metropolitan area in 2022 was €57.5m. This is forecast to rise to €97.2m by 2040. Even under a lower growth scenario, the cost is expected to hit €75m.
However, the Department of Transport's estimates assume the key infrastructure elements of the Cork Metropolitan Area Transport Strategy are delivered, such as BusConnects.
'Delays to the delivery of these projects will postpone the alleviation of congestion,' it said.
However, even delivering on these projects will not provide a great deal of relief.
The report said: 'In the Cork Metropolitan Area, population and economic growth will be likely to generate more demand for commuting trips.
'This results in the growth of congestion costs in the morning and evening peaks over the period as well as overall growth of congestion in this area. Deliveries of public transport and road infrastructure could reduce congestion temporarily, however, population and economic growth will likely generate demand that exceeds infrastructure provision.'
While in 2022, heavy traffic congestion was mainly observed in junctions near the city centre, this congestion is likely to spread over the east, west and north of the city centre in future, it said.
In the Galway Metropolitan Area, the cost of congestion was €35.3m in 2022 but this is expected to hit €106.9m in 2040. Meanwhile, in Waterford, it suggested congestion came at a cost of €5.8m in 2022 and is forecast to rise to €22.4m in 2040.
In terms of the cost of congestion per capita, the projected cost in Galway is almost triple the amount in Cork, at €891 per person by 2040 compared to €309 in Cork.
The department said a greater cost per capita suggests each resident is more affected by congestion, either through longer travel times, increasing fuel consumption or worsening wellbeing outcomes.
In Waterford, the cost per capita from congestion is set to rise a staggering 238% by 2040 compared to just 20% in Cork, which the report said is reflective of the wide-ranging investment in public transport in Cork.
'This demonstrates that large scale investments in sustainable modes can slow down the growth of congestion and that further proactive measures in improving sustainable modes and effective policies to control demand increases should be followed to keep congestion under control,' it said.
'Tackling congestion is essential to prevent the deterioration of people's wellbeing and economic productivity in regional cities.'
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"This policy is fully consistent with foreign military and state aircrafts being allowed to enter Irish sovereign airspace or land in the State under certain circumstances," they said. A peace activist and contributor to Shannonwatch, a group which has monitored US activity at the airport for twenty years, said he believes Shannon Airport is a 'de-facto' military base for the United States. Edward Horgan, who has spent two decades protesting the use of Shannon Airport by the US military, said now is the time for the US to be forbidden from using the airport. Last year, the Department of Transport confirmed that nine civilian aircraft, reported by The Ditch website, carried munitions of war which were destined for Israel over Irish sovereign airspace. "I spent 22 years in the Irish Defence Forces, was heavily involved in logistics and logistics play a huge role in modern warfare. Shannon Airport is being used as a logistic hub for the US military. "This is particularly important at the moment and particularly inappropriate with the genocide that is happening in Gaza," he said. Military bases deployed in a foreign territory usually have a formal legal agreement or treaty with the hosting nation. A base usually has a permanent military presence and control over part of a secure site for the use of military-specific operations or missions. The Department of Foreign Affairs said this week that they have not been notified of any US Military Officers permanently based at Shannon Airport. Figures show that US military aircraft and civilian aircraft regularly and routinely land and refuel there with minimal oversight by the authorities here. However, the Irish Government insists that the US military's use of the airport is subject to strict conditions include no arms or ammunition without specific permission and that no operation missions are launched from Shannon. Other civilian airports in neutral countries with significant US military logistical use, but not military-controlled or designated bases, include Switzerland and Austria. Similar to Ireland, all US military flights must declare their purpose and contents but physical inspections are limited. Retired US army officer Davis said that he believes it is not a de-facto military base. "What would distinguish it from a military base if you had fighter jets on there. If you had routine military transport aircraft, if you had US air force facilities… like what we do in the Middle East, in Qatar for example or Kuwait. "We have parts of the whole airfield that are fenced off and it's just US territory there, that's what I consider a base but this sounds more like a leasing agreement and an arrangement to use existing facilities," he said.
