Got a Ukraine war question? Send it to Michael Clarke here
Send in your Ukraine war questions
It's Wednesday, which means our security and defence analyst Professor Michael Clarke is back to answer your questions on the Ukraine war in his weekly Q&A.
Hundreds of you have already sent in your questions after a very significant few days on the battlefield in the three-year conflict.
Ukraine has pulled off three daring attacks - on two bridges and Russia's bomber fleet over the weekend and on the key Kerch Bridge linking Russia to Crimea yesterday - and the world is waiting to see how Vladimir Putin responds.
Watch: Ukraine strikes Russian bombers
Watch: Kerch Bridge explosion
And there are reports Moscow is launching a summer offensive as peace talks make little sign of progress.
Teams from Kyiv and Moscow met for a second round of direct talks in Istanbul on Monday, agreeing only to another prisoner swap and exchanging terms for a full ceasefire, which still appears a long way off.
And all the while, the usually vocal Donald Trump has remained quiet.
So what does it all mean? Michael is here at midday to help make sense of it.
Submit your questions to join in - and you'll be able to watch the Q&A live on this page.
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The Guardian
12 minutes ago
- The Guardian
Putin faces ‘very severe consequences' if no Ukraine truce agreed, Trump says
Vladimir Putin will face 'very severe consequences' if he does not agree a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine at his summit with Donald Trump in Alaska, the US president said on Wednesday. Speaking after a call with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other European leaders, including Britain's Keir Starmer, Trump also suggested he would push for a second summit if his meeting with Putin goes well – this time including his Ukrainian counterpart. 'If the first one goes OK, we'll have a quick second one,' Trump told reporters in Washington. 'I would like to do it almost immediately, and we'll have a quick second meeting between President Putin and President Zelenskyy and myself, if they'd like to have me there.' Trump did not provide a timeframe for a second meeting. He is to meet Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, on Friday. The meeting will reportedly be held at Joint Base Elmendorf–Richardson, a military facility crucial to countering the Soviet Union during the height of the cold war. Asked if Russia would face consequences if Putin did not agree to stop the war after the Alaska meeting, Trump said: 'Yes, they will … very severe consequences.' The president's remarks followed what he described as a very good call with European leaders in which he consulted about the goal and strategy for his summit. He pleased Europe's leadership by giving reassurances that a ceasefire was his priority and he would not make any territorial concessions without Kyiv's full involvement. Trump's approach at the video conference, as described by France's Emmanuel Macron, appeared to reassure some of the leaders, who were making a final collective plea to the unpredictable US president that he had a duty to protect Ukraine's sovereignty – and European security – at the talks. The European leaders spoke to Trump and his vice-president, JD Vance, in a hastily convened one-hour meeting in an effort to shape Trump's negotiating strategy. Zelenskyy and European leaders have been excluded from the summit and fear that Trump, intent on fulfilling his election campaign guarantee that he could easily end the bloodshed in Ukraine, will make concessions that compromise Ukraine's future sovereignty. But Trump underlined his promise that the summit was not in itself a substantive negotiation and was what he described as a 'feel-out' to test Putin's terms to sign a temporary ceasefire that would then lead to talks with Kyiv. Trump said it had been a very good call, and that he rated it 10 out of 10. Britain, France and Germany, co-chairs of the so-called 'coalition of the willing', later laid out their position on the talks, reiterating that international borders must not be changed by force, and insisting that Ukraine must have 'robust and credible security guarantees to effectively defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity'. The three countries repeated that meaningful negotiations could happen only with a ceasefire in place, and called for Russia to face further economic sanctions if it did not agree to cease hostilities at the summit. Speaking alongside Zelenskyy in Berlin, the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said Europe wanted Trump to be successful in Alaska but that it had made clear to the US president that Ukrainian and European interests had to be protected at the summit. Merz called for a 30-day ceasefire, and then substantive talks. Putin has resisted a ceasefire for months. Setting out the key principles on which Europe is united he said: 'Negotiations must be part of a common transatlantic strategy. Then they can ultimately be most likely to succeed. This strategy must continue to rely on strong support for Ukraine and necessary pressure against Russia. This also means, if there is no movement on the Russian side in Alaska, then the United States and we Europeans should … increase the pressure.' He added that there could not be any Russian legal ownership of Ukrainian territory. 'President Trump knows this position, he shares it very extensively and therefore I can say we have had a really exceptionally constructive and good conversation with each other.' Macron said no serious discussions had taken place about Russian-Ukrainian land swaps involving the ceding of Ukrainian territory, and Trump had anyway underlined that any such discussions could only be negotiated with Kyiv. He said Trump would fight for a trilateral meeting between Ukraine, the US and Russia and that such a meeting would be held in Europe. One European diplomat said: 'Overall the meeting was reassuring in that our points came across, but the question remains whether Trump will stick to the agreed script when he gets into the room with Putin.' Trump met heads of state and government leaders from Germany, the UK, France, Italy, Poland and Finland, as well as the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen. The issue of security guarantees for Ukraine was raised in the call with Trump, but no breakthrough was made in the US offering to provide practical support to the coalition. But the Europeans' main objective had been to seek reassurances from the notoriously fickle Trump that he would not be lured into making irretrievable pledges requiring Ukraine to make concessions of land as the price for securing Putin's agreement to a ceasefire. They also tried to extract assurances that Trump was still prepared to deploy as yet unused economic levers that could damage Russian revenues. European leaders have been careful in public to welcome Trump's summit but in private fear Trump is bent on improving US-Russia relations and sees a loss of Ukrainian sovereignty as a necessary and unavoidable price to secure that objective. Trump has been vague about his strategy, including the terms he will offer to induce Putin to agree to a ceasefire. Zelenskyy has vowed that the Ukrainian military will not voluntarily surrender territory in Donetsk and Luhansk, but Russia is insisting at least four Ukrainian regions will become Russian either at the negotiating table or through force. Earlier on Wednesday, Trump vented his fury at media reporting of his meeting with Putin, writing on Truth Social: 'The media is being really, really unfair about my meeting with Putin. They keep quoting fired losers and really stupid people like John Bolton, who just said that even though the meeting is on US soil, 'Putin has already won'. What the hell is this? We win EVERYTHING.' The treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, said further sanctions or secondary tariffs could yet be placed on Russia's trading partners if the Alaska meeting did not go well. A confident Moscow dismissed the importance of Europe's consultation with Trump. The foreign ministry spokesperson Alexei Fadeyev said: 'We consider the consultations requested by the Europeans to be politically and practically insignificant actions. Verbally, the Europeans support the diplomatic efforts of Washington and Moscow to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, but in reality the European Union is sabotaging them.' Russia says the Alaska meeting is likely to address the full gamut of Russian-American bilateral relations, and not just Ukraine. 'We hope that this meeting will allow the leaders to focus on the full range of issues, from the crisis in Ukraine to the obstacles that hinder normal and constructive dialogue, which is crucial to ensuring international peace and stability,' the spokesperson said. The veteran Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, will be present at the talks.
The Guardian
37 minutes ago
- The Guardian
As Ukraine battles to hold lines, Trump may find Putin difficult to persuade
For Ukraine, the break in the frontline is unfortunately timed. Lightly armed Russian saboteur groups – three on one count – cut though Ukrainian positions in the Donbas countryside east of the key junction at Dobropillia. Though one group has been eliminated, as of Tuesday two were thought to remain at large – and although their numbers are small for now, perhaps 20 to 30, the breach is significant. At the beginning of the year it was safe to visit Dobropillia, which had become a bustling market centre busy with soldiers and locals, nearly 15 miles north of the frontline in Pokrovsk. But since then the town, where once busy supply roads from Pokrovsk to Kramatorsk split, has come under sustained attack with glide bombs, while FPV (first person view) drones strike targets on the move. It is part of an increasingly coordinated battle strategy by the invaders. Experts say Russia has become more effective at targeting Ukrainian drone teams in the field and forces on the move. Even before the weekend, the southerly T0514 supply road to Kramatorsk was at risk of attack, while a Russian military blogger described 'the systematic elimination' of Ukrainian crews. At the same time, Ukraine's forces appear increasingly stretched. Critics such as Bohdan Krotevych, a former chief of staff at the Azov brigade, say too much attention has been focused on infantry counterstrikes in Pokrovsk – 'a soap bubble that will soon burst' – and not enough on augmenting defences to hold existing lines. Ukraine's military, at the urging of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, sent in Azov to try to eliminate the infiltrators. But however small their numbers are, there are more Russians nearby. Ukraine's high command said on Tuesday there were about 110,000 Russian troops near Pokrovsk – and Zelenskyy said another 12,000 were expected to come from Sumy in the north-east to join them in an offensive. All this comes two days before Donald Trump hosts Vladimir Putin at a US military base in Alaska. It is not entirely clear what Putin has offered to win the prize of a summit on American soil, amid talk that Trump's negotiator, the real estate developer Steve Witkoff, misunderstood what the Russian leader said last week. However, Zelenskyy thinks Putin will offer to agree to a ceasefire only if Ukraine voluntarily gives up the 3,400 square miles of Donetsk oblast it holds, including Kramatorsk. It is not an offer that Ukraine can accept, as Zelenskyy has repeatedly made clear in the last week. But Trump may well find it difficult to persuade Putin to shift his position if the Russian leader sees that Kyiv cannot snuff out the incursion. Already Putin thinks Russia is slowly winning the Ukraine war, and while previous advances near Pokrovsk have been costly and slow for the attackers, it is possible there will be an acceleration in momentum. Last August, Ukraine launched a surprise offensive into the Kursk region of Russia, penetrating more than 12 miles deep. It restored morale in Kyiv and promised a bargaining chip in future peace negotiations. But as Russia fought back, that notional value has disappeared. Though the Kursk offensive prevented Russia from mounting an effective offensive in Donbas in 2024, with the benefit of a longer view the problem for Ukraine may only have been deferred into 2025. Throughout the war, Russia has shown it struggles to capture small urban centres. It took a year to capture Bakhmut, also in Donbas, in May 2023. Pokrovsk was evacuated last August and was expected to fall within weeks. Though Russian forces have reached the edge of the city they have still not captured it, concentrating instead on slowly trying to envelop it. Where Russia has been more successful is in rural areas. It will now hope to cut off more roads coming west into Kramatorsk, the heart of Donetsk oblast that Putin so badly wants. The invaders are helped by the growing range of FPV drones, including unjammable fibre-optic craft, rapidly extending the so-called 'kill zone' to 9-12 miles or more. Even so, any Russian progress cross-country is likely to be slow: 34 miles has been occupied in 17 months since the centre of the Donestk front began to give way in February 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War. On Wednesday afternoon Trump insisted there would be 'very severe consequences' for Putin unless he agreed to a ceasefire in Ukraine. Ukrainian politicians such as Halyna Yanchenko, an MP in Zelenskyy's Servant of the People party, pin their hopes on Trump levying secondary sanctions on Russia's oil exports to China, worth €4.1bn last month, partly because there is no prospect of any other form of US intervention. An extraordinary set of figures provided by Zelenskyy illustrated the key problem Ukraine faces and what Putin is prepared to do. On Monday, he said, there were 531 soldiers on Russia's side killed, 428 wounded and nine captured, while on Ukraine's side 18 were killed, 243 wounded and 79 went missing. Despite the disparity, Russia attacks every day, taking similar numbers of casualties as it does so. As long as there continues to be no domestic resistance in Russia, the likelihood is that Putin will feel he can afford to string out negotiations with Trump, despite the threats.
The Independent
40 minutes ago
- The Independent
US and Russia suggest ‘West Bank-style occupation of Ukraine'
The U.S. and Russia are set to suggest a 'West Bank-style' occupation of Ukraine as a way of ending the war, according to The London Times. Under the proposed plans, Russia would have both economic and military control of the occupied parts of Ukraine, utilizing its own governing body, mimicking Israel's control of Palestinian territory taken from Jordan during the 1967 conflict. The suggestion was put forward during discussions between President Donald Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and his Russian counterparts, a source with insight into the U.S. National Security Council told the paper. Witkoff, who also serves as the White House's Middle East envoy, reportedly backs the suggestion, which the U.S. believes will solve the issue of the Ukrainian constitution prohibiting giving up territory without organizing a referendum. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected any notion of ceding territory, the new occupation proposal may lead to a truce following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022. According to the proposal, Ukraine's borders would remain officially unchanged, similar to the borders of the West Bank, even as Israel controls the territory. 'It'll just be like Israel occupies the West Bank,' the source told The Times. 'With a governor, with an economic situation that goes into Russia, not Ukraine. But it'll still be Ukraine, because … Ukraine will never give up its sovereignty. But the reality is it'll be occupied territory and the model is Palestine,' the source added to the paper. The proposal will almost certainly be part of discussions between Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin set for Friday in Alaska. On Wednesday, Zelensky met with European leaders and Trump ahead of the Russia summit. Zelensky is not set to attend Friday's summit in person. Trump reaffirmed during the Wednesday meeting that territorial issues can only be negotiated between Russia and Ukraine, according to French president Emmanuel Macron. The French leader also said Trump wants a ceasefire plan to be finalized during his Friday meeting. 'Any issue which deals with the territorial integrity of Ukraine cannot be discussed just like that, without looking at our constitution and the will of our people,' Zelensky told the press on Friday. 'As to our principles, as to our territorial integrity, in the end, will be decided on the level of leaders. Without Ukraine (at the table), it's impossible to achieve,' Zelensky added. Zelensky said that a ceasefire should be reached and then security guarantees. He also said that sanctions against Russia should be imposed if no ceasefire deal is reached in Alaska. As details of any potential ceasefire are being discussed, the U.S. believes that the 'West Bank-style' deal is the reality of war and the refusal of other nations to directly fight Russia, according to The Times. In May, U.S. Senior Director for Counterterrorism Sebastian Gorka, told Politico that 'The Trump administration lives in the real world.' 'We recognize the reality on the ground,' he added. 'No. 1, that's the beginning because we're not utopianists and we're not human engineers. We're not some kind of pie-in-the-sky believers in utopia.' He went on to say that 'We recognize the reality on the ground and we have one priority above all else, whether it's the Middle East or whether it's Ukraine. It's to stop the bloodshed. Everything else comes after the bloodshed has been halted.' The International Court of Justice has ruled that Israel's occupation of the West Bank is illegal. The occupation isn't recognized by the U.S., and it's only partially recognized by Russia. Last September, the United Nations ordered Israel to end the occupation by a vote of 124 to 14, with 43 countries abstaining. The resolution stated that Israel must adhere to international law within 12 months, pull back its military, end all settlement efforts, evacuate all settlers from the occupied territories, and remove parts of the wall separating the West Bank. Israel has ignored the resolution and voted against the measure, as did the U.S. Israel has faced widespread condemnation over its occupation and the settlement efforts. More than 150 have been established in recent years. Citizens of Israel who live in the West Bank must adhere to Israeli law, while Palestinians are subject to martial law, and they're unable to vote in Israeli national elections.
