Testy Trump Admin Whines That Due Process for Immigrants Is ‘Burdensome'
The administration has responded on two fronts to a court order requiring that it provide potential deportees with the 'meaningful opportunity' to challenge their deportations in court: With a legal challenge and declaration from State Secretary Marco Rubio, and rhetorical attacks on social media.
Late Saturday night, the Department of Justice posted in its entirety their legal challenge to an order from M.A. District Judge Brian Murphy blocking the Trump administration from deporting immigrants to third countries.
In the motion, the DOJ argues that the requirement that the Department of Homeland Security provide detainees with the opportunity to challenge their deportations is 'burdensome' because the DHS is required to 'maintain custody and control' of the detainees and conduct interviews regarding any reasonable fears they may have about being deported to third countries in private at a time of the detainees' choosing.
One such detainee was a gay Guatemalan man, known only as O.C.G., who was deported to Mexico in March in what the Trump administration has since admitted was an error. As a result, on Friday Judge Murphy ruled that the Trump administration must facilitate the man's return to the U.S.
Sec. Marco Rubio also responded to the injunction in a declaration filed with the court and posted to X by DOJ Chief of Staff Chad Mizelle on Saturday. In his declaration, Rubio argues that orders made by the court cause 'significant and irreparable harm' to U.S. foreign policy and its strategic interests in Libya, South Sudan, and Djibouti.
According to Rubio, court orders that prevent the Trump administration from deporting people to countries they have no ties to would cause damages such as harming humanitarian efforts in South Sudan. This, as Rolling Stone points out, is an argument that sounds particularly odd coming from the administration that single-handedly decimated USAID. The Trump administration has already deported at least two Asian immigrants to South Sudan in violation of court orders.
While the case is still in front of Judge Murphy, Mizelle's post made it clear that the Trump administration wants to escalate the legal battle to a potentially more sympathetic Supreme Court, tweeting, 'SCOTUS needs to immediately intervene and reign in judges masquerading as diplomats.'
Rubio's newfound commitment to enforcing Trump's hardline anti-immigration policies represents a shift from earlier in his career, when he had previously called for compassion toward undocumented immigrants, going so far as to refer to helping those covered by the DREAM Act as a 'humanitarian mission.'
Top Trump adviser Stephen Miller also weighed in, reposting a tweet from DHS that referred to Murphy as an 'activist judge' and adding, 'The only process illegals are due is deportation.' Under the U.S. Constitution, everybody under its jurisdictions, whether a citizen or non-citizen, is afforded the right of due process.
Miller's influence on Trump was evident when, last month, he took to TruthSocial to mount a similar argument, claiming that there simply was not sufficient time or court capacity to afford every potential deportee due process.
The president wrote, 'It is not possible to have trials for millions and millions of people. We know who the Criminals are, and we must get them out of the U.S.A.—and FAST!'
Despite facing numerous legal setbacks in his attempt to carry out his planned mass deportations, it is clear that Trump is hoping that dragging the issue into the court of public opinion will yield better results.
This agenda was laid bare in the DOJ's late night post, which read, 'Federal courts cannot direct the conduct of foreign relations, and the court's orders in this case disrupt the president's ability to faithfully execute our immigration laws,'—a clear misrepresentation of the role the legal system plays in interpreting the law, but one that will doubtless not matter to much of Trump's base.
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Yahoo
4 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Commentary: How markets will punish Trump if he fudges the economic data
President Trump is laying the groundwork for replacing real economic data with his own numbers. It's a terrible idea that will blow up in his face if he tries it — and cause the Trump presidency more damage than any legitimate numbers could. Trump fired the economist in charge of the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Aug. 1 after the latest employment report showed a sharp slowdown in hiring. The problem isn't the data or the economists who produce it. The problem is that, right on schedule, Trump's disruptive policies are messing up the economy. His tariffs are raising costs and jamming up business operations with new inefficiencies. His workplace raids, meant to ensnare unauthorized migrants, are reducing the labor supply and leaving some companies disastrously short of workers. After firing the BLS commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, Trump said in a social media post that she 'rigged' the job numbers to make him look bad. Trump specifically cited revisions in the jobs data for May and June that cut total employment by 258,000. That put average job growth during the last three months at an anemic 35,000 — 80% below the average pace of job growth during Joe Biden's last year as president, an underperformance that Trump must find intolerable. There are legitimate concerns about the quality of the surveys BLS conducts to compute the jobs data. Those are huge surveys relying on accurate and complete responses from thousands of firms and regular people. The methodology is complicated. Trump's own cutbacks to the agency make mistakes more likely. One of the main reasons BLS revises the data in the first place is to provide more accuracy as it refines the results of a given month. The downward revisions for May and June were large, but hardly unprecedented. Trump isn't talking about any of that. The employment numbers aren't rigged, and the few serious economic people in Trump's administration — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, White House economist Kevin Hassett — ought to be telling him that. A lot of economic data is unflattering to Trump, however, and there's a good chance it will get worse as tariffs and migration raids further stifle the economy. Trump acts like he knows it, and has been thinking for some time about how to provide alternate data that's more flattering to the Trump economy. For most of his second term, Trump has been raging about Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, demanding that the Fed slash interest rates and musing about firing Powell. Trump has also floated the idea of appointing a 'shadow' Fed chair who would give more upbeat assessments of the economy than the Fed's sober analysis, and perhaps replace Powell when his term expires next Trump's commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, wants to change the way the government calculates economic growth. In June, the BLS, which also calculates inflation data, said it was reducing the collection of pricing data in some parts of the country. Starting Aug. 14, it will cut the number of wholesale prices it measures. The agency says staffing shortages are the main reason it's dialing back data collection. Trump, of course, has slashed staffing at myriad government agencies as part of the so-called DOGE efficiency commission's work. Trump makes no secret of seeking to exert maximum control over all facets of government, including agencies established to be independent of political manipulation. He could very well co-op economic data by putting loyalists in charge of the relevant agencies and instructing them to make the data friendlier. He clearly wants a Federal Reserve that will juice the economy on his command, and if he appoints the right people for the rest of his presidential term, he might get that too. If any of that happens, it will backfire, maybe spectacularly. The simple reality is that nobody, not even the president, can fool markets, at least not for very long. Official government data is important, but businesses, investors, and consumers rely on thousands of data points that tell them almost everything they need to know about how the economy's doing. Presidents have tried many times to generate a counternarrative meant to persuade voters they're better off than they think they are. It never works. Ordinary workers know how far their paycheck stretches and whether they're getting ahead or falling behind. Most can tell you that without knowing whether the inflation or unemployment rate is going up or down. Businesses know what's happening with their order book and cash flow, and spend more or less accordingly. Investors read pricing signals the government can't control and buy, sell, or hedge based on what they see. The bond market is the ultimate arbiter of economic truth, and right now it's expressing concerns about the Trump economy and Trump's own policies. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, points out there's a 'risk' or 'fear' premium in markets right now that's pushing long-term interest rates about 0.65 percentage points higher than they'd otherwise be. That interest rate premium is the extra amount investors demand in order to lock up their money in longer-term bonds. It compensates them for what they think is the risk of higher inflation in the future, along with uncertainty over other factors that could affect the value of their investments. The current term premium is not historically high. But it's higher than it has been for most of the last 15 years. And not all of it involves Trump's policies. Last fall, for instance, long-term rates rose by about a full point while the Fed was cutting short-term rates by a full point. That was a very unusual move, suggesting investors foresaw higher inflation over a five- to 10-year time frame and demanded higher rates to buy bonds maturing during that time. Still, Trump has inherited a dyspeptic bond market, and his tariffs clearly contribute to inflation expectations because they're a tax on imports that literally raises prices paid by businesses and consumers. Another problem is the massive amount of US government borrowing, which may finally be approaching unsustainable levels. If or when the day arrives when there aren't enough buyers for Treasury securities, the only outcome can be higher rates for all bonds to entice buyers. And higher long-term interest rates raise costs for every business or consumer borrowing money. The weird pricing action from last fall shows that if Trump did manage to force the Fed to slash short-term rates, long-term rates might actually rise, because investors would anticipate higher inflation due to looser monetary policy. Trump doesn't care about short-term rates, which only apply to banks making overnight loans. What he really wants is lower long-term rates, so that businesses and consumers borrow and spend more, stoking growth. Trying to force that to happen would probably have the opposite effect. The same thing would happen if Trump tried to fool the world by publishing bogus data showing the economy doing better than it really is. Every serious investor would know it's a sham. Uncertainty would worsen as opacity on some facets of the economy replaced transparency. That would cause upward pressure on the interest rate risk premium, pushing rates higher. Brusuelas's data shows a risk premium of more than 2 percentage points during some periods during the last 25 years. If there were such a premium today, the typical mortgage rate would be more than 8%, instead of 6.7%. In 2008, during the financial crisis, the term premium approached 4%, which would push interest rates today above 10%. That's the range, or trouble, Trump could cause in bond markets if he tries to manipulate the economy and fails. Would it cause a recession? Nobody knows, but that may be the wrong question. Americans are in a foul mood largely because they think management of the economy stinks and they feel prosperity slipping away. When Joe Biden was president, he repeatedly touted record job growth and other things going right, convincing approximately nobody that they were better off than their personal finances led them to believe. Americans want to feel like they're getting ahead at home and at work. Legitimate data won't convince them if they don't see it happening in their own lives, and bogus data won't do any better. Consumer attitudes have been at recessionary levels for much of the last five years, and if Trump starts producing doctored data, it may depress people even more. Truth has value, even to Trump. Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Bluesky and X: @rickjnewman. Click here for political news related to business and money policies that will shape tomorrow's stock prices. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
4 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Stock market today: Dow jumps 580 points, S&P 500, Nasdaq have best day since May as Wall Street bounces back
US stocks rebounded sharply Monday, recovering from last week's sell-off sparked by disappointing labor data and continuing trade uncertainty. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) climbed 1.5%, while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 1.3%, or more than 500 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the gains, rising about 1.9%. Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) jumped 3%, while Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) also rose to close at all-time highs. The moves followed a sharp pullback on Wall Street on Friday. All three major indexes posted their worst weekly declines in months, ending a run of positive market moves. The declines were exacerbated Friday after July's jobs report came in weaker than expected, and previous months' tallies were revised sharply lower, flipping the narrative on the labor market's strength. It led President Trump to lash out at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which publishes the monthly jobs report, and fire its commissioner. Trump suggested he would nominate a new head for the agency in the coming days. Trump's battle with the Fed and Chair Jerome Powell has also remained in focus. Traders tempered expectations around interest rate policy following the bank's decision last week to leave rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting. But after the weak jobs data, almost 90% of bets are on a cut in September. At the same time, investors are examining the fallout from Trump's implementation of tariffs. The updated tariffs set to come into full effect this week range from 10% to 41% on a wide range of trading partners and raise concerns about rising costs amid broader inflationary pressures. On Monday, Trump said he would be "substantially raising" tariffs on India as he presses to stop purchasing Russian oil, effectively accusing the nation of subsidizing Russia's war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) stock edged higher after reports emerged that the company had granted CEO Elon Musk 96 million shares worth about $29 billion. Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs Earnings season continues to roll on with a busy week of corporate releases. Over 100 S&P 500 companies are set to report, with spotlights on Palantir (PLTR), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Disney (DIS). Stocks rebound as investors buy the dip following Friday's sell-off Investors bought the dip on Monday as stocks rebounded sharply from last Friday's sell-off, which was sparked by fears of a labor market slowdown and trade uncertainty. The broad-based S&P 500 (^GSPC) climbed nearly 1.5%, while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 1.3% or more than 500 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose almost 1.9%. The moves follow a sharp pullback on Wall Street on Friday when all three major indexes posted their worst weekly declines in months. This ended a July filled with numerous all-time highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. Palantir is set to report second quarter earnings after announcing $10 billion US Army deal Yahoo Finance's Laura Bratton reports: Read more here. Rolex, luxury watchmakers brace for Trump's tariffs on Swiss imports Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reports: Read more here. Trump set to announce replacement for Fed governor Kugler this week. Is this a tryout for the Fed Chair? Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger reports: Read more here. Figma shares sink 20% following last week's blockbuster IPO Figma (FIG) stock dropped more than 20% on Monday following the company's strong public debut last week. Shares of the design software company sank after gaining more than 5% on Friday and jumping over 250% during Thursday's blockbuster IPO. Coinbase stock hit with analyst downgrade citing 'limited support' for current valuation Coinbase (COIN) stock was downgraded by analysts at Compass Point, who questioned whether the crypto platform's valuation was sustainable. The analysts changed Coinbase's rating to Sell from Neutral and lowered its price target to $248 from $330 per share. The new price target represents a 21% decline from Friday's close. "While we remain constructive on the current crypto cycle, we expect a choppy 3Q alongside weak August/September seasonality and waning retail interest in crypto treasury stocks," Compass Point analyst Ed Engel wrote on Sunday night. "As such, we see limited support for COIN's valuation if crypto markets sell off further," he noted. Read more here. American Eagle stock rises 16% after Trump weighs in on viral Sydney Sweeney ad Yahoo Finance's Jake Conley reports: Read more here. Amazon's slowing cloud growth could continue to drag on its stock Yahoo Finance's Francisco Velasquez reports: Read more here. Tariffs not expected to cause recession or end bull market, says UBS As President Trump's tariff policy pans out, UBS strategists signal it won't cause a recession or spell the end of a bull market. 'Our base case remains that US tariffs will eventually settle around 15%," Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, UBS Global Wealth Management's chief investment officer for Americas and global head of equities, wrote in a note on Monday morning. "While this would be the highest since the 1930s, and six times higher than when Trump returned to office, we do not expect it to cause a recession or end the equity bull market." In recent days, Trump has unleashed a flurry of trade deals, including a 90-day reprieve on goods imported from Mexico and 15% tariffs on EU goods. On Friday, Trump signed an order to hike tariffs on Canada to 35%, while he kept a baseline minimum rate of 10% across all US is set to implement duties this week. Trump says he will 'substantially' raise tariffs on India President Trump said on Monday he will "substantially" raise tariffs on India. Stocks still remained in rally mode following Friday's sell-off. "India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits," Trump wrote on Monday morning. "They don't care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA," he added. President Trump's sweeping tariffs are set to come into full effect later this week. Last Wednesday, Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from India, plus an additional import tax because of the country's purchasing of Russian oil. Tesla shares jump 3% as board approves $30 billion alternative pay deal for Musk Tesla's (TSLA) shares jumped 3% on Monday after the EV maker's board approved a $30 billion alternative compensation plan for its billionaire CEO, Elon Musk. As Yahoo Finance's Alexis Keenan reports: Read more here. Stocks open higher following market sell-off US stocks opened higher on Monday, rebounding from a sharp sell-off spurred by disappointing labor data and tariff uncertainty. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) climbed 0.6% on Monday, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) moved up 0.5%. Markets are coming off a Friday sell-off sparked by tariffs on dozens of countries that start on Aug. 7 and monthly jobs revisions to the downside that implied a labor market slowdown is underway. Trending tickers in premarket trading: Opendoor, Palantir, Tesla, Joby, Tyson Here's a look at what's trending in markets ahead of the opening bell: Opendoor (OPEN) stock popped 16% ahead of second quarter results on Monday morning. As my colleague Jake Conley has detailed, the stock has seen a resurgence in investor interest, powered by a bull case by EMJ Capital and speculative bets posted on Reddit forums. Palantir (PLTR) stock rose 2%. On Friday, the company announced it snagged a contract with the US Army that combines over 75 agreements into one package deal worth $10 billion over the next decade. The software and AI data company will report earnings after the bell on Monday. Tesla (TSLA) shares added more than 2% after the company approved a new pay package worth $29 billion for CEO Elon Musk amid an intense court battle in Delaware. The pay package is designed to boost Musk's voting power over time, which shareholders say is key to keeping him focused on the company and its mission, the special committee said in the filing. Joby (JOBY) shares climbed 5% premarket after the electric air taxi developer said it would acquire Blade Air Mobility's helicopter rideshare business for as much as $125 million. The deal would give Joby access to a network of air terminals in key areas like New York City. Blade Air (BLDE) stock rocketed nearly 30% higher on the news. Tyson Foods (TSN) stock increased 4% after the company reported fiscal third quarter results that beat expectations. The company raised its annual revenue forecast and said it expects resilient demand for chicken to offset weakness in the beef segment as high cattle prices weigh on profits. Check out more trending tickers here. Wayfair stock surges after online furniture retailer swings to a profit Wayfair (W) stock shot up 10% in premarket trading on Monday after the online furniture retailer reported its highest revenue growth and profitability since 2021. Wayfair posted diluted earnings of $0.11 per share, above estimates for a loss of $0.37 per share, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Revenue rose 5% to $3.27 billion, beating Wall Street's expectations of $3.12 billion. Net revenue in the US rose 5.3% to $2.9 billion in the quarter, while international net revenue increased 3.1% to $399 million. "We are optimistic that sales growth, along with management's commitment to controlling expenses/investments, may create a longer-term positive inflection in earnings revisions, on top of what we view as an attractive valuation," JPMorgan's Christopher Horvers wrote in a note ahead of earnings. "Further, over the next three to five years, [Wayfair] should outgrow the category given the longer-term shift toward online retailing and its advantaged assortment/ supply chain as the largest scaled online specialty player in the industry." Read more live coverage of corporate earnings here. Good morning. Here's what's happening today. Economic data: Factory orders (June) Earnings: Hims & Hers (HIMS), Palantir (PLTR), Tyson (TSN), Wayfair (W) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed over the weekend and early this morning: Job market worries in focus as earnings season rolls on Tesla approves near-$30B stock award for Musk US says rare earth talks with China 'halfway there' Trump to name new Fed governor, jobs data head in coming days Boeing defense union strikes for first time since 1996 Morgan Stanley's Wilson: Buy stocks dip on earnings strength Citi's gold bears turn bullish on US growth, inflation concerns Joby to acquire Blade Air's passenger business for $125M Swiss stocks decline on US tariffs, push for lower drug prices Oil slides as traders assess OPEC+ hike and Russian risks Oil eased on Monday as investors digested OPEC+'s latest supply increase, helping to counter a threat from Washington to move against Russian oil flows. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Morgan Stanley's Wilson: Buy stocks dip on earnings strength Morgan Stanley's strategist Michael Wilson said on Monday that investors should buy into bthe selloff in US stocks because of the robust earnings outlook for the coming year. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Citi's gold bears turn bullish on US growth, inflation concerns Citigroup Inc (C) have turned from bearish to bullish on its gold (GC=F) forecast, with analysts now predicting bullion will rally to a record high in the near term due to a worsening US economy and inflation-boosting tariffs. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Goldman with a sobering view on the consumer Goldman Sachs out this morning with a subdued outlook on the US consumer following Friday's lackluster jobs report. Good read on the consumer from the WSJ today, mirrors what Procter & Gamble's (PG) CEO told me on earnings day. Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius: "We expect the weakness in consumer spending to continue in the second half of the year and forecast 0.8% real spending growth in 2025H2. Our view is underpinned by the expectation of a sharp slowdown in real income growth from its elevated pace in 2025H1. Income growth will be hit in Q3 by the phasing out of the one-off 2025H1 government transfer payments and in Q4 by the Medicaid and SNAP benefit cuts included in the new fiscal bill, which will take effect in 2025Q4 and affect lower-income households in particular. We also see higher tariff-driven inflation to impose a drag on real income growth in the second half of the year. Finally, we expect weak job growth due to lower immigration, cuts in government and healthcare hiring, and a tariff-related decline in activity. We expect declines in both business and residential investment in the second half of the year." Swiss stocks decline on US tariffs, push for lower drug prices Swiss stocks took a hit on Monday as the market reopened after a holiday. Worries about the impact from President Trump's 39% export tariffs and a push for drugmakers to lower prices have caused tension in the market. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Stocks rebound as investors buy the dip following Friday's sell-off Investors bought the dip on Monday as stocks rebounded sharply from last Friday's sell-off, which was sparked by fears of a labor market slowdown and trade uncertainty. The broad-based S&P 500 (^GSPC) climbed nearly 1.5%, while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 1.3% or more than 500 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose almost 1.9%. The moves follow a sharp pullback on Wall Street on Friday when all three major indexes posted their worst weekly declines in months. This ended a July filled with numerous all-time highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. Investors bought the dip on Monday as stocks rebounded sharply from last Friday's sell-off, which was sparked by fears of a labor market slowdown and trade uncertainty. The broad-based S&P 500 (^GSPC) climbed nearly 1.5%, while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 1.3% or more than 500 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose almost 1.9%. The moves follow a sharp pullback on Wall Street on Friday when all three major indexes posted their worst weekly declines in months. This ended a July filled with numerous all-time highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. Palantir is set to report second quarter earnings after announcing $10 billion US Army deal Yahoo Finance's Laura Bratton reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Laura Bratton reports: Read more here. Rolex, luxury watchmakers brace for Trump's tariffs on Swiss imports Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reports: Read more here. Trump set to announce replacement for Fed governor Kugler this week. Is this a tryout for the Fed Chair? Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger reports: Read more here. Figma shares sink 20% following last week's blockbuster IPO Figma (FIG) stock dropped more than 20% on Monday following the company's strong public debut last week. Shares of the design software company sank after gaining more than 5% on Friday and jumping over 250% during Thursday's blockbuster IPO. Figma (FIG) stock dropped more than 20% on Monday following the company's strong public debut last week. Shares of the design software company sank after gaining more than 5% on Friday and jumping over 250% during Thursday's blockbuster IPO. Coinbase stock hit with analyst downgrade citing 'limited support' for current valuation Coinbase (COIN) stock was downgraded by analysts at Compass Point, who questioned whether the crypto platform's valuation was sustainable. The analysts changed Coinbase's rating to Sell from Neutral and lowered its price target to $248 from $330 per share. The new price target represents a 21% decline from Friday's close. "While we remain constructive on the current crypto cycle, we expect a choppy 3Q alongside weak August/September seasonality and waning retail interest in crypto treasury stocks," Compass Point analyst Ed Engel wrote on Sunday night. "As such, we see limited support for COIN's valuation if crypto markets sell off further," he noted. Read more here. Coinbase (COIN) stock was downgraded by analysts at Compass Point, who questioned whether the crypto platform's valuation was sustainable. The analysts changed Coinbase's rating to Sell from Neutral and lowered its price target to $248 from $330 per share. The new price target represents a 21% decline from Friday's close. "While we remain constructive on the current crypto cycle, we expect a choppy 3Q alongside weak August/September seasonality and waning retail interest in crypto treasury stocks," Compass Point analyst Ed Engel wrote on Sunday night. "As such, we see limited support for COIN's valuation if crypto markets sell off further," he noted. Read more here. American Eagle stock rises 16% after Trump weighs in on viral Sydney Sweeney ad Yahoo Finance's Jake Conley reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Jake Conley reports: Read more here. Amazon's slowing cloud growth could continue to drag on its stock Yahoo Finance's Francisco Velasquez reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Francisco Velasquez reports: Read more here. Tariffs not expected to cause recession or end bull market, says UBS As President Trump's tariff policy pans out, UBS strategists signal it won't cause a recession or spell the end of a bull market. 'Our base case remains that US tariffs will eventually settle around 15%," Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, UBS Global Wealth Management's chief investment officer for Americas and global head of equities, wrote in a note on Monday morning. "While this would be the highest since the 1930s, and six times higher than when Trump returned to office, we do not expect it to cause a recession or end the equity bull market." In recent days, Trump has unleashed a flurry of trade deals, including a 90-day reprieve on goods imported from Mexico and 15% tariffs on EU goods. On Friday, Trump signed an order to hike tariffs on Canada to 35%, while he kept a baseline minimum rate of 10% across all US is set to implement duties this week. As President Trump's tariff policy pans out, UBS strategists signal it won't cause a recession or spell the end of a bull market. 'Our base case remains that US tariffs will eventually settle around 15%," Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, UBS Global Wealth Management's chief investment officer for Americas and global head of equities, wrote in a note on Monday morning. "While this would be the highest since the 1930s, and six times higher than when Trump returned to office, we do not expect it to cause a recession or end the equity bull market." In recent days, Trump has unleashed a flurry of trade deals, including a 90-day reprieve on goods imported from Mexico and 15% tariffs on EU goods. On Friday, Trump signed an order to hike tariffs on Canada to 35%, while he kept a baseline minimum rate of 10% across all US is set to implement duties this week. Trump says he will 'substantially' raise tariffs on India President Trump said on Monday he will "substantially" raise tariffs on India. Stocks still remained in rally mode following Friday's sell-off. "India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits," Trump wrote on Monday morning. "They don't care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA," he added. President Trump's sweeping tariffs are set to come into full effect later this week. Last Wednesday, Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from India, plus an additional import tax because of the country's purchasing of Russian oil. President Trump said on Monday he will "substantially" raise tariffs on India. Stocks still remained in rally mode following Friday's sell-off. "India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits," Trump wrote on Monday morning. "They don't care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA," he added. President Trump's sweeping tariffs are set to come into full effect later this week. Last Wednesday, Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from India, plus an additional import tax because of the country's purchasing of Russian oil. Tesla shares jump 3% as board approves $30 billion alternative pay deal for Musk Tesla's (TSLA) shares jumped 3% on Monday after the EV maker's board approved a $30 billion alternative compensation plan for its billionaire CEO, Elon Musk. As Yahoo Finance's Alexis Keenan reports: Read more here. Tesla's (TSLA) shares jumped 3% on Monday after the EV maker's board approved a $30 billion alternative compensation plan for its billionaire CEO, Elon Musk. As Yahoo Finance's Alexis Keenan reports: Read more here. Stocks open higher following market sell-off US stocks opened higher on Monday, rebounding from a sharp sell-off spurred by disappointing labor data and tariff uncertainty. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) climbed 0.6% on Monday, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) moved up 0.5%. Markets are coming off a Friday sell-off sparked by tariffs on dozens of countries that start on Aug. 7 and monthly jobs revisions to the downside that implied a labor market slowdown is underway. US stocks opened higher on Monday, rebounding from a sharp sell-off spurred by disappointing labor data and tariff uncertainty. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) climbed 0.6% on Monday, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) moved up 0.5%. Markets are coming off a Friday sell-off sparked by tariffs on dozens of countries that start on Aug. 7 and monthly jobs revisions to the downside that implied a labor market slowdown is underway. Trending tickers in premarket trading: Opendoor, Palantir, Tesla, Joby, Tyson Here's a look at what's trending in markets ahead of the opening bell: Opendoor (OPEN) stock popped 16% ahead of second quarter results on Monday morning. As my colleague Jake Conley has detailed, the stock has seen a resurgence in investor interest, powered by a bull case by EMJ Capital and speculative bets posted on Reddit forums. Palantir (PLTR) stock rose 2%. On Friday, the company announced it snagged a contract with the US Army that combines over 75 agreements into one package deal worth $10 billion over the next decade. The software and AI data company will report earnings after the bell on Monday. Tesla (TSLA) shares added more than 2% after the company approved a new pay package worth $29 billion for CEO Elon Musk amid an intense court battle in Delaware. The pay package is designed to boost Musk's voting power over time, which shareholders say is key to keeping him focused on the company and its mission, the special committee said in the filing. Joby (JOBY) shares climbed 5% premarket after the electric air taxi developer said it would acquire Blade Air Mobility's helicopter rideshare business for as much as $125 million. The deal would give Joby access to a network of air terminals in key areas like New York City. Blade Air (BLDE) stock rocketed nearly 30% higher on the news. Tyson Foods (TSN) stock increased 4% after the company reported fiscal third quarter results that beat expectations. The company raised its annual revenue forecast and said it expects resilient demand for chicken to offset weakness in the beef segment as high cattle prices weigh on profits. Check out more trending tickers here. Here's a look at what's trending in markets ahead of the opening bell: Opendoor (OPEN) stock popped 16% ahead of second quarter results on Monday morning. As my colleague Jake Conley has detailed, the stock has seen a resurgence in investor interest, powered by a bull case by EMJ Capital and speculative bets posted on Reddit forums. Palantir (PLTR) stock rose 2%. On Friday, the company announced it snagged a contract with the US Army that combines over 75 agreements into one package deal worth $10 billion over the next decade. The software and AI data company will report earnings after the bell on Monday. Tesla (TSLA) shares added more than 2% after the company approved a new pay package worth $29 billion for CEO Elon Musk amid an intense court battle in Delaware. The pay package is designed to boost Musk's voting power over time, which shareholders say is key to keeping him focused on the company and its mission, the special committee said in the filing. Joby (JOBY) shares climbed 5% premarket after the electric air taxi developer said it would acquire Blade Air Mobility's helicopter rideshare business for as much as $125 million. The deal would give Joby access to a network of air terminals in key areas like New York City. Blade Air (BLDE) stock rocketed nearly 30% higher on the news. Tyson Foods (TSN) stock increased 4% after the company reported fiscal third quarter results that beat expectations. The company raised its annual revenue forecast and said it expects resilient demand for chicken to offset weakness in the beef segment as high cattle prices weigh on profits. Check out more trending tickers here. Wayfair stock surges after online furniture retailer swings to a profit Wayfair (W) stock shot up 10% in premarket trading on Monday after the online furniture retailer reported its highest revenue growth and profitability since 2021. Wayfair posted diluted earnings of $0.11 per share, above estimates for a loss of $0.37 per share, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Revenue rose 5% to $3.27 billion, beating Wall Street's expectations of $3.12 billion. Net revenue in the US rose 5.3% to $2.9 billion in the quarter, while international net revenue increased 3.1% to $399 million. "We are optimistic that sales growth, along with management's commitment to controlling expenses/investments, may create a longer-term positive inflection in earnings revisions, on top of what we view as an attractive valuation," JPMorgan's Christopher Horvers wrote in a note ahead of earnings. "Further, over the next three to five years, [Wayfair] should outgrow the category given the longer-term shift toward online retailing and its advantaged assortment/ supply chain as the largest scaled online specialty player in the industry." Read more live coverage of corporate earnings here. Wayfair (W) stock shot up 10% in premarket trading on Monday after the online furniture retailer reported its highest revenue growth and profitability since 2021. Wayfair posted diluted earnings of $0.11 per share, above estimates for a loss of $0.37 per share, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Revenue rose 5% to $3.27 billion, beating Wall Street's expectations of $3.12 billion. Net revenue in the US rose 5.3% to $2.9 billion in the quarter, while international net revenue increased 3.1% to $399 million. "We are optimistic that sales growth, along with management's commitment to controlling expenses/investments, may create a longer-term positive inflection in earnings revisions, on top of what we view as an attractive valuation," JPMorgan's Christopher Horvers wrote in a note ahead of earnings. "Further, over the next three to five years, [Wayfair] should outgrow the category given the longer-term shift toward online retailing and its advantaged assortment/ supply chain as the largest scaled online specialty player in the industry." Read more live coverage of corporate earnings here. Good morning. Here's what's happening today. Economic data: Factory orders (June) Earnings: Hims & Hers (HIMS), Palantir (PLTR), Tyson (TSN), Wayfair (W) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed over the weekend and early this morning: Job market worries in focus as earnings season rolls on Tesla approves near-$30B stock award for Musk US says rare earth talks with China 'halfway there' Trump to name new Fed governor, jobs data head in coming days Boeing defense union strikes for first time since 1996 Morgan Stanley's Wilson: Buy stocks dip on earnings strength Citi's gold bears turn bullish on US growth, inflation concerns Joby to acquire Blade Air's passenger business for $125M Swiss stocks decline on US tariffs, push for lower drug prices Economic data: Factory orders (June) Earnings: Hims & Hers (HIMS), Palantir (PLTR), Tyson (TSN), Wayfair (W) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed over the weekend and early this morning: Job market worries in focus as earnings season rolls on Tesla approves near-$30B stock award for Musk US says rare earth talks with China 'halfway there' Trump to name new Fed governor, jobs data head in coming days Boeing defense union strikes for first time since 1996 Morgan Stanley's Wilson: Buy stocks dip on earnings strength Citi's gold bears turn bullish on US growth, inflation concerns Joby to acquire Blade Air's passenger business for $125M Swiss stocks decline on US tariffs, push for lower drug prices Oil slides as traders assess OPEC+ hike and Russian risks Oil eased on Monday as investors digested OPEC+'s latest supply increase, helping to counter a threat from Washington to move against Russian oil flows. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Oil eased on Monday as investors digested OPEC+'s latest supply increase, helping to counter a threat from Washington to move against Russian oil flows. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Morgan Stanley's Wilson: Buy stocks dip on earnings strength Morgan Stanley's strategist Michael Wilson said on Monday that investors should buy into bthe selloff in US stocks because of the robust earnings outlook for the coming year. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Morgan Stanley's strategist Michael Wilson said on Monday that investors should buy into bthe selloff in US stocks because of the robust earnings outlook for the coming year. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Citi's gold bears turn bullish on US growth, inflation concerns Citigroup Inc (C) have turned from bearish to bullish on its gold (GC=F) forecast, with analysts now predicting bullion will rally to a record high in the near term due to a worsening US economy and inflation-boosting tariffs. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Citigroup Inc (C) have turned from bearish to bullish on its gold (GC=F) forecast, with analysts now predicting bullion will rally to a record high in the near term due to a worsening US economy and inflation-boosting tariffs. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Goldman with a sobering view on the consumer Goldman Sachs out this morning with a subdued outlook on the US consumer following Friday's lackluster jobs report. Good read on the consumer from the WSJ today, mirrors what Procter & Gamble's (PG) CEO told me on earnings day. Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius: "We expect the weakness in consumer spending to continue in the second half of the year and forecast 0.8% real spending growth in 2025H2. Our view is underpinned by the expectation of a sharp slowdown in real income growth from its elevated pace in 2025H1. Income growth will be hit in Q3 by the phasing out of the one-off 2025H1 government transfer payments and in Q4 by the Medicaid and SNAP benefit cuts included in the new fiscal bill, which will take effect in 2025Q4 and affect lower-income households in particular. We also see higher tariff-driven inflation to impose a drag on real income growth in the second half of the year. Finally, we expect weak job growth due to lower immigration, cuts in government and healthcare hiring, and a tariff-related decline in activity. We expect declines in both business and residential investment in the second half of the year." Goldman Sachs out this morning with a subdued outlook on the US consumer following Friday's lackluster jobs report. Good read on the consumer from the WSJ today, mirrors what Procter & Gamble's (PG) CEO told me on earnings day. Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius: "We expect the weakness in consumer spending to continue in the second half of the year and forecast 0.8% real spending growth in 2025H2. Our view is underpinned by the expectation of a sharp slowdown in real income growth from its elevated pace in 2025H1. Income growth will be hit in Q3 by the phasing out of the one-off 2025H1 government transfer payments and in Q4 by the Medicaid and SNAP benefit cuts included in the new fiscal bill, which will take effect in 2025Q4 and affect lower-income households in particular. We also see higher tariff-driven inflation to impose a drag on real income growth in the second half of the year. Finally, we expect weak job growth due to lower immigration, cuts in government and healthcare hiring, and a tariff-related decline in activity. We expect declines in both business and residential investment in the second half of the year." Swiss stocks decline on US tariffs, push for lower drug prices Swiss stocks took a hit on Monday as the market reopened after a holiday. Worries about the impact from President Trump's 39% export tariffs and a push for drugmakers to lower prices have caused tension in the market. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Swiss stocks took a hit on Monday as the market reopened after a holiday. Worries about the impact from President Trump's 39% export tariffs and a push for drugmakers to lower prices have caused tension in the market. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here.
Yahoo
4 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Commentary: How markets will punish Trump as he fudges the economic data
President Trump is laying the groundwork for replacing real economic data with his own numbers. It's a terrible idea that will blow up in his face if he tries it — and cause the Trump presidency more damage than any legitimate numbers could. Trump fired the economist in charge of the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Aug. 1 after the latest employment report showed a sharp slowdown in hiring. The problem isn't the data or the economists who produce it. The problem is that, right on schedule, Trump's disruptive policies are messing up the economy. His tariffs are raising costs and jamming up business operations with new inefficiencies. His workplace raids, meant to ensnare unauthorized migrants, are reducing the labor supply and leaving some companies disastrously short of workers. After firing the BLS commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, Trump said in a social media post that she 'rigged' the job numbers to make him look bad. Trump specifically cited revisions in the jobs data for May and June that cut total employment by 258,000. That put average job growth during the last three months at an anemic 35,000 — 80% below the average pace of job growth during Joe Biden's last year as president, an underperformance that Trump must find intolerable. There are legitimate concerns about the quality of the surveys BLS conducts to compute the jobs data. Those are huge surveys relying on accurate and complete responses from thousands of firms and regular people. The methodology is complicated. Trump's own cutbacks to the agency make mistakes more likely. One of the main reasons BLS revises the data in the first place is to provide more accuracy as it refines the results of a given month. The downward revisions for May and June were large, but hardly unprecedented. Trump isn't talking about any of that. The employment numbers aren't rigged, and the few serious economic people in Trump's administration — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, White House economist Kevin Hassett — ought to be telling him that. A lot of economic data is unflattering to Trump, however, and there's a good chance it will get worse as tariffs and migration raids further stifle the economy. Trump acts like he knows it, and has been thinking for some time about how to provide alternate data that's more flattering to the Trump economy. For most of his second term, Trump has been raging about Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, demanding that the Fed slash interest rates and musing about firing Powell. Trump has also floated the idea of appointing a 'shadow' Fed chair who would give more upbeat assessments of the economy than the Fed's sober analysis, and perhaps replace Powell when his term expires next Trump's commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, wants to change the way the government calculates economic growth. In June, the BLS, which also calculates inflation data, said it was reducing the collection of pricing data in some parts of the country. Starting Aug. 14, it will cut the number of wholesale prices it measures. The agency says staffing shortages are the main reason it's dialing back data collection. Trump, of course, has slashed staffing at myriad government agencies as part of the so-called DOGE efficiency commission's work. Trump makes no secret of seeking to exert maximum control over all facets of government, including agencies established to be independent of political manipulation. He could very well co-op economic data by putting loyalists in charge of the relevant agencies and instructing them to make the data friendlier. He clearly wants a Federal Reserve that will juice the economy on his command, and if he appoints the right people for the rest of his presidential term, he might get that too. If any of that happens, it will backfire, maybe spectacularly. The simple reality is that nobody, not even the president, can fool markets, at least not for very long. Official government data is important, but businesses, investors, and consumers rely on thousands of data points that tell them almost everything they need to know about how the economy's doing. Presidents have tried many times to generate a counternarrative meant to persuade voters they're better off than they think they are. It never works. Ordinary workers know how far their paycheck stretches and whether they're getting ahead or falling behind. Most can tell you that without knowing whether the inflation or unemployment rate is going up or down. Businesses know what's happening with their order book and cash flow, and spend more or less accordingly. Investors read pricing signals the government can't control and buy, sell, or hedge based on what they see. The bond market is the ultimate arbiter of economic truth, and right now it's expressing concerns about the Trump economy and Trump's own policies. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, points out there's a 'risk' or 'fear' premium in markets right now that's pushing long-term interest rates about 0.65 percentage points higher than they'd otherwise be. That interest rate premium is the extra amount investors demand in order to lock up their money in longer-term bonds. It compensates them for what they think is the risk of higher inflation in the future, along with uncertainty over other factors that could affect the value of their investments. The current term premium is not historically high. But it's higher than it has been for most of the last 15 years. And not all of it involves Trump's policies. Last fall, for instance, long-term rates rose by about a full point while the Fed was cutting short-term rates by a full point. That was a very unusual move, suggesting investors foresaw higher inflation over a five- to 10-year time frame and demanded higher rates to buy bonds maturing during that time. Still, Trump has inherited a dyspeptic bond market, and his tariffs clearly contribute to inflation expectations because they're a tax on imports that literally raises prices paid by businesses and consumers. Another problem is the massive amount of US government borrowing, which may finally be approaching unsustainable levels. If or when the day arrives when there aren't enough buyers for Treasury securities, the only outcome can be higher rates for all bonds to entice buyers. And higher long-term interest rates raise costs for every business or consumer borrowing money. The weird pricing action from last fall shows that if Trump did manage to force the Fed to slash short-term rates, long-term rates might actually rise, because investors would anticipate higher inflation due to looser monetary policy. Trump doesn't care about short-term rates, which only apply to banks making overnight loans. What he really wants is lower long-term rates, so that businesses and consumers borrow and spend more, stoking growth. Trying to force that to happen would probably have the opposite effect. The same thing would happen if Trump tried to fool the world by publishing bogus data showing the economy doing better than it really is. Every serious investor would know it's a sham. Uncertainty would worsen as opacity on some facets of the economy replaced transparency. That would cause upward pressure on the interest rate risk premium, pushing rates higher. Brusuelas's data shows a risk premium of more than 2 percentage points during some periods during the last 25 years. If there were such a premium today, the typical mortgage rate would be more than 8%, instead of 6.7%. In 2008, during the financial crisis, the term premium approached 4%, which would push interest rates today above 10%. That's the range, or trouble, Trump could cause in bond markets if he tries to manipulate the economy and fails. Would it cause a recession? Nobody knows, but that may be the wrong question. Americans are in a foul mood largely because they think management of the economy stinks and they feel prosperity slipping away. When Joe Biden was president, he repeatedly touted record job growth and other things going right, convincing approximately nobody that they were better off than their personal finances led them to believe. Americans want to feel like they're getting ahead at home and at work. Legitimate data won't convince them if they don't see it happening in their own lives, and bogus data won't do any better. Consumer attitudes have been at recessionary levels for much of the last five years, and if Trump starts producing doctored data, it may depress people even more. Truth has value, even to Trump. Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Bluesky and X: @rickjnewman. Click here for political news related to business and money policies that will shape tomorrow's stock prices. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
