China's sixth-gen fighter jet leaves US Air Force officials with ‘choices to make'
China's
newest fighter jet emerged as a talking point at an American defence conference this week, with US Air Force officials showing more urgency to get their own version of a sixth-generation stealth combat jet.
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They made the call at the annual Air & Space Forces Association's Warfare Symposium, held in Colorado from Monday to Wednesday, while discussing the future of a costly fighter jet programme – Next Generation Air Dominance – that was paused last summer.
'We have some choices to make as we observe what China has produced, and we can presume we know what that's for – for air superiority,' US Air Combat Commander Kenneth Wilsbach said during a panel discussion on Tuesday, according to American news outlet Defense One.
'What are we going to do about it? I don't believe that nothing is an option,' he said.
US Air Combat Commander Kenneth Wilsbach says doing nothing is not an option. Photo: YouTube
Wilsbach was referring to the
unofficial debut of two Chinese sixth-generation aircraft prototypes in December that suggests the
People's Liberation Army could have an early advantage in the race with its long-range, stealthy J-36.
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Asia Times
11 hours ago
- Asia Times
Indonesia torn between China's J-10 and US F-15EX
Indonesia's fighter jet dilemma pits cost, capability, and geopolitical leverage as it weighs China's now-battle-tested J-10s against pricier Western rivals. This month, Reuters reported that Indonesia is evaluating the potential acquisition of China's J-10 fighter jets, weighing their affordability and advanced capabilities against other options, including the US-made F-15EX. Deputy Defense Minister Donny Ermawan Taufanto confirmed that discussions are ongoing with China, which has also reportedly pitched naval vessels and armaments. Indonesia's evaluation considers system compatibility, after-sales support and pricing. The deliberations follow Indonesia's broader military modernization push, which saw the 2022 purchase of 42 French Rafale jets worth US$8.1 billion. Six Rafales are expected to be delivered next year. While Indonesia's interest in the J-10 predates recent India-Pakistan air skirmishes, Pakistan's use of J-10s to down at least one Indian-flown Rafale has added a new dimension to Jakarta's evaluation. Meanwhile, Indonesia is still mulling its planned F-15EX purchase, with questions rising around the $8 billion price tag for 24 jets. France remains a contender, with President Emmanuel Macron's recent visit to Indonesia resulting in a preliminary defense pact that could lead to further Rafale acquisitions. Taufanto emphasized Indonesia's budget constraints and strategic options, noting ongoing assessments of multiple offers. Highlighting the J-10's capabilities, Justin Bronk notes in an October 2020 report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) that the J-10 is China's response to the US F-16 and Swedish Gripen, offering comparable capabilities at a significantly lower acquisition cost. 'Think of the J-10C as roughly equivalent to a late-model F-16, but with some features, like its long-range missile suite, that could give it the edge in certain scenarios,' says David Jordan, a senior lecturer in defense studies at King's College London, in a May 2025 Business Insider article. 'You may well see a very viable competitor to Western products entering contests for the purchase of new fighter aircraft,' says Jordan. However, no matter how capable the J-10 may be on paper, Indonesia's chronic procurement dysfunction, underfunding, weak institutional support and fragmented planning raise serious questions about its ability to field any advanced fighter effectively. 'Indonesia's air force modernization and fleet recapitalization has been marred with multiple challenges, including lack of funding, lack of government commitment, as well as inefficient and highly personalized acquisition policy,' says Olli Suorsa in a March 2021 S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) report. For Indonesia's cash-strapped air force, which by all accounts is in serious need of modernization, the J-10 presents a compelling case. However, Indonesia may be proceeding with caution before making its move. Dave Laksono, a senior member of Indonesia's House of Representatives, said that 'unverified claims in conflict zones cannot be used as the sole basis for assessing the effectiveness or failure of a particular weapons system,' according to a May 2025 Defense Security Asia report. 'Even the most advanced jets, such as the F-16, F/A-18, and F-22, have experienced incidents of being shot down or crashed due to certain tactical conditions,' says Laksono. Further, Alfin Bansundoro notes in a June 2024 East Asia Forum article that while Indonesia has previously purchased Chinese weapons, such as CH-4B drones, C-705 and C-802 anti-ship missiles, and TD-2000B self-propelled air defense systems, bilateral territorial disputes over the Natuna Islands cast doubt on future purchases from China. Bansundoro points out that China has sold downgraded weapons to Indonesia several times, mentioning that the former sold the export version of the C-802, known as the YJ-83, which has a reduced range. In addition, he says Indonesia runs the risk of jeopardizing purchases from Western partners if it pushes through with acquiring Chinese weapons, emphasizing the risk of Western economic weaponization. However, Evan Laksmana warns in a May 2024 article for the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) that without a well-institutionalized defense partnership, Indonesia's long-term relationship with China will lack strategic heft and balance. Beyond military cooperation, such arms deals often bleed into economic diplomacy. Fighter jets can act as entry points for deeper bilateral entanglements, requiring long-term cooperation in training, maintenance and logistics. Jake Rinaldi argues in a November 2024 article for the US Army War College that China often pairs arms sales with economic perks, such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), of which Indonesia is a member. In the Indonesian context, Rinaldi notes that China's arms sales may aim to establish relationships with senior civilian and military leaders, thereby expanding diplomatic and strategic influence. Pointing out the quid pro quo between China and Indonesia, Oene Marseille and other writers mention in a November 2024 article for CDR Essential Intelligence that China has financed major projects, including the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail, in exchange for strengthened economic ties. In return, Marseille and others state that Indonesia provides China with access to crucial resources, particularly nickel, for electric vehicle production. However, they note that while Indonesia benefits from economic modernization, China leverages these projects to expand its influence in Southeast Asia, intertwining trade with strategic leverage, while Indonesia cautiously balances partnerships. Although Indonesia has planned to purchase F-15EX jets from the US, a decision to purchase them, like a potential acquisition of China's J-10s, may be driven more by political and economic considerations than by Indonesia's actual defense requirements. An April 2023 D-Insights article reports that Indonesia's plan to purchase F-15EX jets from the US is likely to fail due to cost, as the aircraft are too expensive for the country's limited defense budget. Similar budget issues have strained Indonesia's past cooperation with South Korea on next-generation fighter projects, including delayed payments and alleged data leaks, as reported by the Korean JoongAng Daily in May 2025. D-Insights posits that Indonesia may have raised the possibility of F-15EX purchases to keep good relations with the US, ultimately making it a political gesture more than anything else. Even if driven by politics, Indonesia may still attempt to extract tangible benefits from potential F-15EX purchases. Aryojati Ardipandanto argues in an April 2025 article for Info Singkat that Indonesia could use F-15EX purchases to negotiate the 32% 'reciprocal' tariffs Donald Trump imposed on the country in April and has since paused. Ardipandanto says Indonesia needs the F-15EX as part of its defense diplomacy to blunt the effects of US tariffs on its micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), considering the possibility of layoffs in Indonesian companies that export to the US. Whichever jet Indonesia chooses, the decision will have far-reaching consequences, shaping its defense posture, great power alignments and the price it pays for sovereignty.
Asia Times
12 hours ago
- Asia Times
Xi calls Trump's bluff and wins, time and time again
China's Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump spoke over the phone Thursday (June 5), the first known formal contact of the Trump 2.0 era. Though signs of détente were few, the fact that the leaders of the world's two biggest economies are speaking at all marks progress. Essentially, the two presidents talked about talking more down the line to lower the temperature on tariffs and access to rare earth minerals. The exchange fueled hope on Wall Street that a trade war truce might be in the cards. 'The US and China appear to have stepped back from their latest brink,' says analyst Bill Bishop, who writes the Sinocism newsletter. 'Trump and Xi finally had their call, the Geneva 'truce' may be back on track, and to listen to Trump, the [China] halt in exports of rare earth magnets may be ending.' Trump told reporters that the 'very good' call 'straightened out any complexity, it's very complex stuff. I think we're in very good shape with China and the trade deal.' Yet the 'grand bargain' global markets hoped Trump would strike with China still risks becoming more like a grand flop. The Chinese side, for example, seems far less impressed by the Thursday call, which officials suggested was perfunctory and vague. As Cornell University economist Eswar Prasad puts it, the 'asymmetry' in Beijing's and Washington's reporting of the call suggests that Xi held to a tough line and Trump 'didn't get much acquiescence' to his demands. Odds are good that Xi will continue to drag things out, believing time is on China's side. By appearing above the fray, Xi continues to outmaneuver Trump, who often seems to be negotiating with himself. China is also having some success positioning itself as the adult in the room as Trump lurches from one trade stance to another, hour by hour. 'The overall objectives of the trade aggression, other than the display of raw power, are as muddled as ever,' says Arthur Kroeber, an analyst at Gavekal Research. Kroeber adds that 'fresh hostilities between the US and China show that the many questions left hanging after the Geneva ceasefire in mid-May still have no satisfactory answers. It's not clear whether US trade policy is being run by Trump, his trade negotiators or his national security team.' So far, Xi has taken a go-slow approach to trade deal negotiations. Efforts by US Treasury Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to convince markets that a pact was in the works, imminent even, haven't been reciprocated from the Chinese side. China has reason to tread carefully. On April 10, Trump hiked China tariffs to a cartoonishly high 145%. Such a levy is 'effectively an embargo,' notes University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers. It's also an action likely to turn off the other side, squandering any remaining goodwill between governments. By the time Trump backed down, cutting the tax to 30% on May 12, it was too late. This likely explains why Team Xi came forward with zero concessions in the days that followed what Trump World called a 'truce' between the two biggest economies. On May 30, Trump declared that Beijing had 'totally violated its agreement with us.' But then on June 4, Trump made it clear Xi's inscrutability is keeping him up at night. In a thirsty 2:17 a.m. social media rant, Trump declared: 'I like President XI of China, always have, and always will, but he is VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!.' Gita Gopinath, the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) first deputy managing director, warns that the shock from Trump's trade war is worse than Covid-19. 'This time the challenge is going to be greater for them compared to the pandemic,' Gopinath tells the Financial Times. 'During Covid, central banks were moving in the same direction… easing monetary policy very quickly.' At this point, she adds, monetary authorities are 'steering through the fog' without coordination or a shared crisis playbook. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) thinks global growth will now slow to 2.9% in 2025 from 3.3% in 2024, the weakest pace of expansion since the pandemic. It sees US growth slowing to 1.6% from an earlier forecast of 2.8%. 'Weakened economic prospects will be felt around the world, with almost no exception,' says OECD chief economist Alvaro Pereira. 'Lower growth and less trade will hit incomes and slow job growth.' In a report on Tuesday, OECD said that 'agreements to ease trade tensions and lower tariffs and other trade barriers will be instrumental to revive growth and investment and avoid rising prices. This is by far the most important policy priority.' On the US economy, OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann told reporters that 'the main headwinds are lower export growth as a result of retaliatory measures from trading partners, the impact of high policy uncertainty, and a marked slowdown in net immigration.' Yet the uncertainty factor is just as bad as Trump's tariffs themselves. Particularly as one US court reverses Trump's taxes on the grounds that he lacks the authority to impose them and another keeps them in place. 'I'm operating under the assumption that some major elements of Trump's tariff policies will remain intact in one form or another,' says Stephen Roach, economist at Yale University. 'Hopefully, they won't be as severe as threatened earlier, but they will nonetheless impose meaningful taxes on most US imports, with an especially steep penalty on those coming from China.' Roach adds that 'I still suspect that tariffs surviving the current legal skirmishes are likely to be onerous enough to have negative impacts on global trade, with especially adverse implications for the US and China.' Trouble is, Roach says, 'in this climate, companies have no idea how to scale and source inputs for their multinational production platforms. The planning exercise has become an oxymoron, with serious consequences for the real economy.' The bottom line, Roach notes, is that a 'protracted period of policy uncertainty essentially freezes business decision-making on capital spending and hiring, with negative repercussions for income generation and consumer demand; consumer purchasing power should be further constrained by tariff-related price shocks. Uncertainty remains the enemy of decision making.' As Xi slow-walks Trump's desire for a big, splashy trade deal, the odds of this fragile truce holding are dwindling even after Thursday's call. For one thing, headlines about Trump's having caved on tariffs as Wall Street stocks plunged are grating on the president and his inner circle. So is the #TACO narrative — the idea that Trump Always Chickens Out on import taxes. Beijing 'successfully called Trump's bluff,' notes Mark Williams, economist at Capital Economics. Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer notes that Trump's talk of a 'total reset' with China is really his 'biggest climbdown to date.' Since the 1980s, Trump observers have known that nothing angers him more than being perceived as the 'loser' in any negotiation. This partly explains why he signed — and loudly touted — a trade agreement with the UK, an economy with which Washington has a trade surplus. It betrayed a desperation to highlight a trade deal of any kind, no matter how minor. Japan is proving to be in no hurry to negotiate a bilateral pact, just six years after the last one with Trump 1.0. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has made it clear Tokyo will negotiate at its own pace — not in haste. Over in Seoul, South Korea's new president, Lee Jae-myung, says he has no intention of rushing to the negotiating table. He's far more liberal than his predecessor Yoon Suk Yeol. Pundits call him Korea's answer to US Senator Bernie Sanders. As such, Lee is unlikely to make quick concessions at the expense of workers' rights in a nation where labor unions wield real power. At the same time, Xi's strategy of playing the long game and not flinching is offering the rest of Asia a playbook for fending off Trump's negotiating team. His tactical retreat sends a message that plunging markets will change Trump's mind in an instant. First, it was swooning stocks that had Trump delaying his 'reciprocal' tariffs. Then, the chaotic surge in US Treasury yields forced Trump to step back from the brink once again. Yet tensions are almost certain to flare up anew once Trump realizes that Beijing isn't coming forward with the concessions Trump thinks he deserves for cutting his China tariff by 79%. From Beijing's perspective, Trump backed off because he'd overreacted in the first place. As JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon puts it, the tariffs were 'too large, too big and too aggressive' for the US economy's own good. Trouble is, Trump has a 40-plus-year track record of arguing that tariffs are the answer to virtually every economic problem imaginable. Trump's most consistent economic view through the decades is that Asia is exploiting the US and only import taxes can save the day. He's called tariffs 'beautiful' and claimed they will 'supercharge' the US economy. Yet as economists know, sizable tariffs can also be stagflationary. Team Xi appears to be following a blueprint provided by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. In 2018 and 2019, Abe slow-walked negotiations with Trump 1.0. No doubt, Team Xi is busily strategizing on their own Abe-like dodge, minus the aggressive flattery. Xi's Communist Party, of course, does not have to contest mid-term elections 18 months from now. And Xi knows it. As such, Beijing is in no hurry to sign a 'Phase Two' trade agreement with a US leader sure to demand a 'Phase Three' round of talks a year from now. At the same time, US officials are learning that Trump's chaotic Phase One process prompted China to pivot to other markets. Today, China's top trading partner is the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations, followed by the European Union. Also, China is actively growing its market share among the BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa – and the Global South. Xi's 'Made in China 2025' strategy has been quietly making the nation more self-sufficient. All of which means Trump's hopes of pulling off a massive, world-changing trade deal are slipping away, even after his declaration after Thursday's call that such a deal is on the horizon. And if he's wondering who's to blame, all Trump needs to do is look in the mirror. Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek
HKFP
12 hours ago
- HKFP
Safeguarding national security should become Hong Kong's ‘culture,' leader John Lee says
Safeguarding national security should become a 'culture' in Hong Kong, Chief Executive John Lee has said, vowing to strengthen public education and train officers to counter 'state-level' threats. In an interview with the Beijing-backed newspaper Wen Wei Po, published on Friday, Lee said the government's effort to safeguard national security was still at its 'starting stage.' His remarks come almost five years after Beijing imposed a national security law in Hong Kong in the summer of 2020, following large-scale pro-democracy protests and unrest in 2019. The city enacted a homegrown security law, known locally as Article 23, in March 2024. Last month, subsidiary legislation for Article 23 was enacted. Six new offences were created to facilitate the work of China's Office for Safeguarding National Security (OSNS) in the city, and six sites occupied by the office were declared 'prohibited places,' with hefty penalties for intruders or spies. Lee said in his interview that Hong Kong was still 'setting up the institution' of safeguarding national security. 'We have to strengthen our information network to become more aware of the acts that endanger national security, as well as the opponents' financial capability, other resources, and manpower,' he said in Cantonese. He also said that authorities should step up the training of national security agents against state-level threats, such as spies. Spies 'could be highly discreet. Things that appear normal on the surface may involve a large conspiracy and a grand scheme behind,' he said. 'Ultimately, their motives and goals are to endanger our national security.' The city's government has been in 'good communication' with mainland Chinese authorities in training agents, he added. Meanwhile, Hong Kong will continue to promote national security education, Lee said, in a bid to make residents capable of recognising national security threats instantly. 'I hope they become more identified [with national security] and more proactive, so that safeguarding national security can become a culture,' he said. Over 300 people have been arrested for 'acts endangering national security' since Beijing's national security law came into effect. Beijing inserted national security legislation directly into Hong Kong's mini-constitution in June 2020 following a year of pro-democracy protests and unrest. It criminalised subversion, secession, collusion with foreign forces and terrorist acts – broadly defined to include disruption to transport and other infrastructure. The move gave police sweeping new powers and led to hundreds of arrests amid new legal precedents, while dozens of civil society groups disappeared. The authorities say it restored stability and peace to the city, rejecting criticism from trade partners, the UN and NGOs. Separate from the 2020 Beijing-enacted security law, the homegrown Safeguarding National Security Ordinance targets treason, insurrection, sabotage, external interference, sedition, theft of state secrets and espionage. It allows for pre-charge detention of up to 16 days, and suspects' access to lawyers may be restricted, with penalties involving up to life in prison. Article 23 was shelved in 2003 amid mass protests, remaining taboo for years. But, on March 23, 2024, it was enacted having been fast-tracked and unanimously approved at the city's opposition-free legislature. The law has been criticised by rights NGOs, Western states and the UN as vague, broad and 'regressive.' Authorities, however, cited perceived foreign interference and a constitutional duty to 'close loopholes' after the 2019 protests and unrest.
