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Newsweek
2 hours ago
- Newsweek
Rental Market Starts to See Effects of Trump's Immigration Crackdown
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The sharp about-turn in immigration levels since January looks set to have an impact on the U.S. housing market — particularly when it comes to rentals — though its wider effects could take longer to be felt. New analysis from economic and housing experts shows that the surge in demand for housing seen over the past four years is easing slightly, as fewer immigrants arrive in the U.S., and President Donald Trump's mass deportation plan is put into action. "The big thing that had happened the past few years is we saw a huge burst in immigration on a net basis into the United States, much of that through the southern border," Lance Lambert, founder of the housing-market research site Resi Club, told Newsweek. "So, what that did to the housing market is it created more demand, rental demand in particular, at the bottom of the market." Lambert said the markets that will see the biggest impact of lower migration numbers will be those metropolitan areas which saw high numbers of legal and illegal new arrivals in recent years, such as New York City, Miami and Houston. These cities have seen demand for housing surge, with data regularly showing soaring rental costs and a lack of available units. In Manhattan, rents steadily climbed after a pandemic-era low to a median asking price of $4,745 in July, with a total rental inventory of 18,936 units, compared to 21,317 the year before, per StreetEasy. Not all of this would have been driven by immigration, but it was likely a contributing factor in the city's ever-present housing shortage. Miami saw similar surges in costs, despite an ever-expanding metropolitan area, as Florida's immigrant population grew. Migrants Blamed for Housing Squeeze During the 2024 presidential election campaign, Vice President JD Vance was among those on the right who put the blame for America's housing squeeze squarely on immigrants. In a speech at the Republican National Convention last July, the then-VP nominee spoke about U.S. homebuilders that went out of business during the financial crisis of 2008, putting a dent in new-home construction that has continued. "Then the Democrats flooded this country with millions of illegal aliens," Vance said. "So citizens had to compete with people who shouldn't even be here for precious housing." This messaging was one of the factors driving support for mass deportations and other stricter immigration measures. Since President Trump and Vice President Vance took office, there has been a noticeable shift in immigration patterns. Stan Veuger, a senior fellow at the center-right American Enterprise Institute (AEI), told Newsweek that net migration was likely to dramatically fall in 2025, potentially by as much as 650,000. "That's mostly driven by a reduction in flows both at the southern border, but also various legal pathways that have been cut off or reduced, including the Refugee Resettlement Program and humanitarian programs for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, Venezuelans, Ukrainians, and Afghans," Veuger said. "So that, in turn, will have an impact on various macro-outcomes." The Impact of Trump 2.0 Policies Veuger and his colleagues predict that GDP growth will be reduced by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points this year, partly because of the reduction in migrants leading to a loss of in employees in sectors like construction. In the months leading up to and following the 2024 election, others also made similar predictions, warning that a loss of immigrants, both legal and illegal, would have a drastic effect on the U.S. economy. When it comes to housing, those impacts may not be felt just yet, Lambert told Newsweek, with the market not necessarily reflecting the drop in net migration or the effects of tariffs on building materials. "At the moment, builders are not seeing any meaningful increases in material cost nor labor cost," said Lambert, of Resi Club. "If we potentially see a long sustaining pullback in immigration through the border, could that over time create some tightening impact to the labor market and the residential construction sector? Yeah, potentially. He added: "But at the end of the day, right now, the bigger macro features of the housing cycle are playing a much bigger role to builders." Construction workers build homes at a new housing development on August 08, 2025 in Henderson, Nevada. Construction workers build homes at a new housing development on August 08, 2025 in Henderson, pointed to an overall slowdown in the housing market since the pandemic, including affordability issues, a rising number of available units sitting for longer and a drop in demand as the real issues facing housing rather than immigration policies. "Keep in mind that immigration essentially had a pull-forward where there was more immigration the past few years than would have otherwise occurred," Lambert said. "So even with a pullback or a net decline in immigration this year, we still have more people who immigrated the past few years than the trend expected. "So it would take several years of very little immigration through the southern border or even net declines to fully smooth out that big burst that we saw in 2023-2024." Veuger said that AEI is predicting a dramatic slowdown in migration numbers over the next two years, which could impact the economy more widely, but those levels could return to normal soon after depending on federal policy and who wins the White House in 2028 — meaning only time will tell how big an impact the administration's policies will have on long-term housing and construction. "Part of what drives the very low net migration number now is that there are millions and millions of people in the country who arrived relatively recently," Veuger said. "If you are a recent arrival, you're much more likely to leave, either voluntarily or through extradited removal. "Two, three years from now, after we will have had a number of years with many fewer arrivals, we will have fewer recent arrivals who are so likely to leave."
Newsweek
2 hours ago
- Newsweek
Abigail Spanberger Wins Backing of Group That Endorsed Glenn Youngkin
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Democrat Abigail Spanberger won the endorsement of a police organization that backed GOP Governor Glenn Youngkin in his 2021 run, as polls suggest Spanberger has carved out a polling lead over her Republican rival, Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. Newsweek reached out to the Spanberger and Earle-Sears campaigns for comment via email. Why It Matters Virginia voters will elect their next governor in November, as Youngkin cannot run again due to term limits. The party outside of the White House has historically performed well in the off-year elections in the former battleground that has shifted toward Democrats over the past few decades. But the race will be a key test for both parties. Democrats will be hoping to win back voters who shifted rightward and test their message ahead of the midterms. Republicans, meanwhile, will be aiming to hold onto those same voters, particularly Latino and Asian voters with whom President Donald Trump made inroads last year. What to Know Spanberger rolled out the endorsement of the Virginia Police Benevolent Association (PBA) on Wednesday, less than three months before Virginia voters cast their ballots in the race. Joe Woloszyn, president of the Virginia PBA, wrote in a statement that he believes Spanberger "understands the responsibility of putting on the badge" as a former federal law enforcement. Former Representative Abigail Spanberger attends a rally in Alexandria, Virginia on April 10, 2025. Former Representative Abigail Spanberger attends a rally in Alexandria, Virginia on April 10, 2025."As a Member of Congress, she repeatedly voted to increase funding for local police departments and sheriff's offices — and she was relentless in pushing her bipartisan Social Security Fairness Act across the finish line to secure the earned benefits of thousands of Virginia's retired police officers," he wrote. In 2021, the organization backed Youngkin for governor and Earle-Sears in the lieutenant governor race. Both went on to narrowly win their elections against Democratic candidates in November—Youngkin by 2 points and Earle-Sears by 1.5 points. At the time, Woloszyn wrote that Youngkin had an "in depth understanding of the complex issues currently facing law enforcement in the commonwealth. The endorsement came after the Democrats' 2021 nominee, former Governor Terry McAuliffe, declined to meet with the group. Virginia Governor Race: What Polls Show The latest polls of the Virginia governor race show Spanberger with a lead. A Virginia Commonwealth University poll released last month showed Spanberger leading by 12 points (49 percent to 37 percent). It surveyed 764 registered voters from June 19, 2025, to July 3, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.16 percentage points. A HarrisX poll from earlier this year showed a closer race, showing her up four points (52 percent to 48 percent). It surveyed 1,000 likely voters from May 9 to May 13, 2025. What People Are Saying Woloszyn wrote in the statement: "Abigail has a deep, expert-level knowledge of the unique challenges facing Virginia's law enforcement officers, and she is a leader who shares our goal of building trust across our communities and working towards a safer, stronger Commonwealth. The VAPBA Board of Directors is proud to publicly endorse Abigail Spanberger for Governor of Virginia." Spanberger wrote in a statement: "Virginians deserve a Governor who recognizes the tremendous sacrifice that comes with swearing an oath to protect and serve our neighbors. As Governor, I will always make sure our brave men and women in blue have the tools, resources, and training they need to do their jobs and keep us safe. I look forward to working directly with VAPBA and the communities they serve as Governor to have the backs of our fellow Virginians who go to work each day to put others first." Political scientist Larry Sabato wrote to X: "Interesting. I always look for endorsement flips. VA Police Benevolent Association--which backed all Rs in 2021-- just endorsed Spanberger (D). They stuck with Rs for Lt Gov (Reid) and AG (Miyares). In '21 the group backed Earle-Sears for Lt Gov." Journalist David Weigel wrote on X: "One of McAuliffe's 2021 fumbles was skipping the VPBA meeting; he had trouble navigating the post-George Floyd landscape where police unions didn't trust Dems, was annoyed that his record wasn't enough." What Happens Next The Virginia gubernatorial general election is scheduled for November 4, 2025.
Newsweek
3 hours ago
- Newsweek
Ghislaine Maxwell's Prison Conditions Come Under Scrutiny
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Ghislaine Maxwell's transfer to a minimum security prison "reeks of a coordinated protection racket run at taxpayer expense to shield the president," a senator said. Maxwell was jailed for 20 years in 2022 for various crimes related to sex trafficking over her role in grooming girls for Jeffrey Epstein to abuse. Questions have been asked after she was moved to a minimum security prison in Texas shortly after meetings with the Deputy U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche over two days in July. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, former Rhode Island attorney general, asked for all documents relating to the transfer as he raised concerns about Maxwell's potential "access to the community" from a minimum security facility despite being a convicted sex offender. Whitehouse is a prominent Democrat who has leveled a range of accusations at President Donald Trump before, including in May when he told MSNBC that the president's tariff policies opened the door to potential corruption. The Bureau of Prisons told Newsweek in an email: "The Bureau of Prisons responds directly to Members of Congress and their staff. Out of respect and deference to Members, we do not comment on our Congressional briefings or share our Congressional correspondence with the media. "Additionally, for privacy, safety, and security reasons, we do not discuss the conditions of confinement for any incarcerated individual." Newsweek contacted the Bureau of Prisons, Department of Justice (DOJ) and White House as well as Maxwell's lawyer for comment. Ghislaine Maxwell attends the ETM 2014 Children's Benefit Gala at Capitale, in New York City, on May 6, 2014. President Donald Trump takes questions from reporters at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington on... Ghislaine Maxwell attends the ETM 2014 Children's Benefit Gala at Capitale, in New York City, on May 6, 2014. President Donald Trump takes questions from reporters at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington on August 5, 2025. More Paul Zimmerman/WireImage/Why It Matters Trump has been under pressure from his own base over a review he ordered into the Epstein files, with many MAGA supporters feeling they were led to believe bombshell new information was coming, including an "Epstein client list." The backlash began after a DOJ and FBI memo in July indicated no new charges against Epstein's associates and said there was no evidence of Epstein blackmailing rich and powerful men, as alleged by victims. It added: "This systematic review revealed no incriminating 'client list.'" Trump then faced greater scrutiny over his own friendship with Epstein, though Trump said in 2019: "I had a falling out with him. I haven't spoken to him in 15 years. I was not a fan of his, that I can tell you." What To Know Polling by YouGov between August 9-11 also showed 47 percent of Americans believe Maxwell should not have been moved to a minimum security prison compared to 14 percent who backed the transfer and 38 percent who said they were not sure. It comes as Allison Gill, host of the Mueller She Wrote podcast, reported she had been given some of Maxwell's prison information by an anonymous source. Gill said Maxwell was eligible to leave the prison for work which, if true, echoed Epstein being "allowed to leave prison as part of the sweetheart deal he got from Alex Acosta," who as then U.S. attorney for the Southern District of Florida brokered Epstein's heavily criticized plea deal in 2008. Maxwell's lawyer, David Oscar Markus, replied to the suggestion on X: "Another day, another false rumor about Ghislaine meant to unnecessarily inflame folks." Another day, another false rumor about Ghislaine meant to unnecessarily inflame folks. — David Oscar Markus (@domarkus) August 12, 2025 Whitehouse, a Senate Judiciary Committee member, told Newsweek: "Ghislaine Maxwell's quiet transfer to a 'Club Fed' prison does not comport with the seriousness of the sex crimes she was found guilty of. It just so happens that the transfer was facilitated one week after Maxwell's highly unusual meeting with the deputy attorney general. "This whole thing reeks of a coordinated protection racket run at taxpayer expense to shield the president from the fallout from his years-long friendship with a notorious sex trafficker. The American people deserve real answers on this sordid saga." Trump was recently asked at a press conference about the transfer and said: "I didn't know about it at all. I read about it just like you did. It's not a very uncommon thing." What People Are Saying Whitehouse wrote to Federal Bureau of Prisons Director William K. Marshall asking for a plethora of documents, including documents related to: "Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, any member of the Office of the Deputy Attorney General, or any other Department of Justice official not employed by the Bureau of Prisons." In his letter, published on his website, he wrote: "Roughly one week after Mr. Blanche's meetings, Ms. Maxwell was suddenly transferred from a low-security facility in Tallahassee, Florida, to a minimum-security prison camp in Bryan, Texas. "Ms. Maxwell is serving a 20-year sentence for participation in a scheme with Epstein to traffic and sexually exploit minors. "By default, Bureau policy requires individuals like Ms. Maxwell, whose criminal history involves sex offenses, to be placed, at a minimum, at low-security facilities because they 'are not appropriate for placement at an institution which would permit inmate access to the community (i.e., MINIMUM security).' "Ordinarily, Bureau officials in Tallahassee would need to request waiver of this policy as part of their request to transfer Ms. Maxwell to a minimum-security facility, subject to approval by Bureau officials in Grand Prairie, Texas." Gill reported that Maxwell was granted a sex-offender waiver allowing her to move to a minimum security prison.
