Gold price prediction: Bullion surges toward key resistance as Iran conflict and Trump's tariff threats drive investors to gold—here's what to expect next
Gold prices surge
amid Iran tensions and
Trump tariff warning
: What's driving investor fear?-
Gold prices jumped in early Asian trading hours on Thursday, May 26, 2025, as rising geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty pushed investors toward safe-haven assets. With Middle East conflict fears intensifying and U.S. President Donald Trump signaling a potential new round of trade tariffs, gold surged as markets turned risk-averse.
Spot gold prices rose 0.6% to $3,374.94 an ounce, while August gold futures rallied 1.5% to $3,394.60/oz by 01:24 ET (05:24 GMT), according to Investing.com. The metal has already gained strength this week, largely due to uncertainty around U.S.-China trade negotiations and persistent geopolitical instability.
Why are gold prices rising today?
Several global triggers are fueling the gold rally. Here's a simple look at the top drivers:
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Middle East tensions
: Reports suggest that Israel could be preparing for military action against Iran, and the U.S. is pulling diplomatic staff from Iraq. This has created major geopolitical uncertainty.
Trump tariff threats
: President Donald Trump has announced plans to send tariff warning letters to several major economies in the next two weeks, adding fuel to global trade fears.
Flight to safety
: With rising risks, investors are pulling out of stocks and shifting into safe-haven assets like gold.
Weaker U.S. dollar
: A falling dollar makes gold cheaper for international buyers, boosting demand.
Rate cut expectations
: Softer U.S. inflation data has traders betting on a Fed rate cut later this year, which tends to support gold prices.
What is the gold price today?
As of today, here's where gold stands in the market:
Spot gold
: $3,374.94 per ounce (+0.6%)
Gold futures (August delivery)
: $3,394.60 per ounce (+1.5%)
Resistance zone
: Analysts are watching the $3,380 level closely for a potential breakout.
These figures show strong momentum for gold as it inches closer to breaking past key chart levels.
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Is this a good time to buy gold?
That depends on your investment goals, but here are a few things to keep in mind:
Technical indicators show strength
, with gold trading just below major resistance.
If global tensions escalate
, gold could shoot higher as panic drives demand.
However, if peace talks resume or tariffs ease
, prices might pull back.
For short-term traders, the next 24–48 hours could be critical. For long-term investors, today's jump reinforces gold's value during times of uncertainty.
Why are rising Iran tensions boosting gold prices?
Heightened fears of military conflict between Iran and Israel have directly fueled the demand for gold, which is traditionally seen as a safe-haven during global crises. Several reports suggest Israel is preparing to attack Iran if nuclear discussions between the U.S. and Iran collapse. This follows President Trump's recent statement that Iran would not be allowed to enrich more uranium, casting further doubt over the future of ongoing nuclear talks.
Adding to the pressure, Trump ordered the withdrawal of U.S. personnel from Iraq and other Middle Eastern nations, intensifying market concerns over a possible escalation. Iranian officials have also threatened to retaliate against U.S. bases in the region if tensions turn into armed conflict.
How is the trade outlook under Trump affecting gold and global markets?
In a move that shook market confidence, Trump announced he will send letters to major global economies within the next two weeks outlining new U.S. tariff plans. So far, the U.S. has only formalized a trade deal with the United Kingdom, and has shared only limited information about a recently announced framework with China.
This uncertainty has rattled global investors, increasing the demand for gold and other precious metals. With trade talks still lacking clarity and more tariffs possibly on the horizon, investors are seeking stability in assets like gold and platinum.
What's happening with other precious and industrial metals?
The weak U.S. dollar and overall market caution gave a boost to other metals as well. Here's how they performed:
Platinum futures rose 0.8% to $1,251.65/oz — the highest in over four years.
Silver futures gained 0.7%, trading at $36.515/oz, near a 13-year peak.
Copper prices also moved higher, with LME copper futures up 0.5% at $9,699.70/ton, and U.S. copper futures climbing 0.4% to $4.8242/pound.
These gains reflect broader concerns, from weaker global currencies to shifts in industrial demand.
Is the platinum rally sustainable or a short-term spike?
Despite platinum's strong performance in 2025 — up 37.3% so far this year, compared to a 28.6% rise in gold — Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) analysts are warning that the rally may not last. According to Goldman, platinum could fall back into its traditional trading range of $800 to $1,150/oz, driven by several key factors.
Chinese demand for platinum jewelry is weakening.
Automotive demand is slowing, especially as electric vehicles reduce the need for emission control systems that use platinum.
South African production remains strong, potentially outpacing demand.
This suggests that platinum's gains could be temporary, with prices expected to stabilize or decline in the coming months.
What does all this mean for investors moving forward?
As gold prices climb on geopolitical risks and trade uncertainty, investors are reassessing their portfolios. The volatile mix of Trump's aggressive trade posture, ongoing Middle East tensions, and currency pressures is pushing money into traditional safe-havens.
Even as Goldman Sachs analysts caution about platinum's future, the broader precious metals market is seeing renewed interest. The key now will be how events unfold — particularly around Iran and the outcome of trade negotiations.
What to watch next in the gold market?
If you're keeping an eye on gold, here are a few key events to track:
Any new developments between Israel and Iran
Updates on Trump's tariff letters and global reactions
U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data coming up
Federal Reserve commentary on interest rates
Each of these factors could impact gold prices in the coming days and weeks.
Gold is once again proving itself as the go-to safe-haven when markets get shaky. With geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty on the rise, today's rally could just be the beginning. If tensions worsen, we could see gold breaking through its current ceiling and heading even higher.
Stay tuned and watch the key levels. The gold market is heating up—and investors are taking notice.
FAQs:
Q1: Why are gold prices rising in May 2025?
Gold prices are rising due to Iran-U.S. tensions and Trump's new trade tariff plans.
Q2: Will platinum prices stay high in 2025?
Goldman Sachs says platinum's rise may not last due to weak demand and strong supply.
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