Bitcoin rebounds from fall after Iran strike: Chart of the Day
Yahoo Finance Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre, who also hosts Yahoo Finance's Stocks in Translation podcast, takes a closer look at bitcoin's (BTC=F) initial fall and subsequent rebound after the US struck Iran, representing an escalation of conflict in the Middle East.
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here.
It is time now for our chart of the day. I'm Jared Blikre. Bitcoin is back, uh, above the $100,000 level after briefly hitting its lowest price since May in the wake of these US attacks on Iran. But looking back at some of its recent moves, they show that the cryptocurrency has a high level of correlation with risk assets and mainly technology. So before we get to that chart, I just want to show you the price action over the weekend, and this will include last Friday. You can see it's pretty negative, and you can see here we are above 100,000, but we dipped below, and that was on Sunday, and that generated a lot of headlines because that is that big psychological number. But let me just show you the year to date and show you why this isn't too concerning for me. What we have here is just technically speaking a bull flag. The long-term trend is still to the upside. We're consolidated, but we're moving sideways to down, as we can see in that chart right there. And over the last three years, guess what? We can see this has happened multiple times, most notably in 2024 when we did this for most of the year. That was very frustrating for traders, but not a lot of damage was done technically, uh, just Bitcoin was basically just treading water. And now I want to get to the juice here. This is the, uh, QQQ. This is basically the NASDAQ 100 correlated with Bitcoin, and that is in white here. And you can see it's a lot of, it goes up and down, basically on a scale from zero to 100, and that's on the right. And then in, in, uh, green, we have Bitcoin, and that is scaled on the left. So let me just show you how some of the peaks have worked on in Bitcoin. There's one, and it's hard to see, but in 20, uh, 2017, early 2018, we had a big peak in Bitcoin. You can see that on your screen right there. Then we had another one racing to all-time highs in 2021. And then we just had another one to all-time highs in 2025. Now, what happened here in each of those circumstances, the correlation with tech dropped precipitously each of those times. And so Bitcoin had basically become detached from a lot of the fundamentals that were driving the overall market. What I'm seeing here today is that Bitcoin is acting a lot like tech markets, and basically the entire market is under pressure right now. So Bitcoin is not chasing, it's not catching that safe haven bid. So what we need to see is a new catalyst that allows Bitcoin and crypto assets in general to propel themselves to new highs. But absent that huge catalyst like the election last fall, I don't know if we're going to see that.
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