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No, the global economy isn't falling apart despite Trump's shocks
Despite warnings of a meltdown, Trump's policies have barely dented global growth forecasts
T T Ram Mohan
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Since April 2 — the day President Donald Trump declared as 'Liberation Day' — we have been told that the world economy is headed for a massive setback and markets for a meltdown.
Mr Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on some 180 countries and territories. On April 9, he declared a 90-day pause on these tariffs for all countries except China. Since then, he has raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 145 per cent. The Chinese have retaliated with a 125 per cent tariff on imports from the US.
President Trump is confident that tariffs with all countries, including China, will
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Mint
15 minutes ago
- Mint
Centre to introduce minimum import price on pharmaceutical raw materials to curb cheap Chinese imports
New Delhi: India plans to introduce a minimum import price (MIP) for select pharmaceutical raw materials in a move to shield its domestic industry from a flood of cheap Chinese imports, two people directly involved in the process said, a step that will also shore up India's status as the world's largest supplier of generic drugs. India accounts for about 20% of the global supply of generic drugs and manufactures about 60,000 generic brands, across 60 categories. The plan comes against the backdrop of the Centre's move to bulk up its Production Linked incentive (PLI) scheme for generic drugs by including more molecules used in manufacturing key starting materials (KSMs), drug intermediates, and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs). KSMs and intermediates are chemical compounds used to synthesize APIs, which are the main components of a drug. 'The government is working on a plan to impose a minimum import price on all PLI based pharmaceutical products. The plan is to protect the domestic industry so that they are able to continue to do the business and to make India self-reliant," said one of the two people mentioned above. The measure seeks to build on India's recent success with domestic production of critical antibiotics such as Penicillin G. The API industry is a crucial segment of the pharmaceutical sector, accounting for about 35% of the market. However, India is dependent on imports for 80% of its bulk drug requirement. Bolstering self reliance The move also aims to bolster India's goal of self-reliance in the pharmaceutical sector. The heavy reliance on China, the world's largest producer and exporter of APIs, creates significant risks for India's medicine supply chain. In 2021, the government launched the ₹15,000 crore PLI scheme for the pharmaceuticals sector. There are about 500 API manufacturers in India, which account for about 8% of the global API industry. In addition, the production of APIs for essential medicines is also promoted through a dedicated PLI scheme for bulk drugs, KSMs and APIs. The government is seeking new applications as the previous iteration of the PLI scheme failed to meet the expectations due to dumping of cheap commodities from China. Also read | India curbs exports of 13 key pharma ingredients These schemes are aimed at protecting and encouraging domestic ingredient manufacturing which is seen as a critical step in securing the future growth and stability of India's pharma sector. According to the second person, the plan is a direct response to appeals from the domestic API industry, which has struggled to compete with the low prices of Chinese products. 'Actually, industry needs protection like some anti-dumping measures and MIP to make India self-reliant," the second person said, referring to a practice where a country 'dumps' its exports in other countries at prices that are less that what it costs to make these goods. Exports marginally higher As per commerce ministry data, India recorded a modest trade surplus in bulk drugs and intermediates in FY25, with exports totalling $4.90 billion and imports at $4.64 billion. In FY24, exports stood at $4.79 billion, slightly ahead of imports worth $4.56 billion, again resulting in a surplus. Similarly, in FY23, exports were $4.77 billion compared to imports of $4.51 billion, continuing the trend of a positive trade balance in this segment. The Indian Drugs Manufacturers' Association (IDMA) called for a cautious and data-driven approach to the proposal for imposing minimum import prices on select APIs and KSMs. The industry body has warned the government against a blanket application of the trade measure. 'We believe that a data-backed, well-studied and balanced approach should be considered," said Viranchi Shah, national spokesperson for IDMA. While the move is intended to discourage cheap imports and support the domestic pharma industry, Shah cautioned that India's strong position in finished formulation exports must not be compromised. Also read | India seeks financial details of pharmaceutical marketing practices 'The minimum import price should not come as a blanket strategy across the board, considering that India also has a very strong formulation industry," he said. 'Our industry has to remain competitive both domestically and globally." IDMA reiterated its support to the government's self-reliance push under the 'Atma-Nirbhar Bharat" campaign but urged policy planners to ensure that trade interventions like MIP do not end up hampering Indian exports by making them more costly. Queries sent to the spokespersons of India's commerce ministry, and department of pharmaceuticals on Friday and the Embassy of China in New Delhi on Saturday remained unanswered till the press time. China dependent Ajay Srivastava, co-founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a policy think tank, said India's chemicals and pharmaceuticals sector—which plays a crucial role in healthcare, agriculture, and industry—is becoming heavily dependent on imports from China. 'This growing reliance not only exposes India to supply chain vulnerabilities but also raises significant strategic concerns, especially in the current global climate where geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions are increasingly common. Strengthening domestic production is thus not just an economic priority but a national security imperative," he said. A GTRI report from April 2024 states that India's imports of chemicals and pharmaceuticals reached $54.8 billion in FY2024. Between 2007 and 2022, China's share in these imports rose sharply from 18% to 29%, with imports from China increasing nearly fourfold—from $4.4 billion to $17.4 billion. Also read | Bitter pill for Indian pharma as Trump tariffs could hurt exports by $2.25 bn Although imports from other countries has also ballooned, the heavy dependence on China remains a major strategic concern. In 2022, India's chemical and pharmaceutical imports totaled $76.94 billion, with China accounting for 26.8%, followed by Saudi Arabia, the US, Japan, and Russia. There has been a notable increase in antibiotic imports from $551.2 million in 2007-10 to $1.27 billion in 2020-22, an increase of 130.7%. Here too, China's market share climbed to 81.7%, underscoring a high dependency on Chinese pharmaceutical products essential for addressing widespread public health needs in India, it said. Instrument of control A minimum import price is an instrument used by countries to control surplus imports. As a case in point, India has used MIPs to curb the import of steel and agricultural products like onions and pulses. By filtering out extremely low-cost imports, MIP also helps maintain quality standards, ensuring that only manufacturers capable of meeting cost-based compliance and quality norms supply APIs to the Indian market. 'While such a measure could lead to a short-term increase in input costs for drug makers dependent on Chinese supplies, it is seen as a necessary step for strengthening the domestic pharmaceutical ecosystem and reducing strategic vulnerabilities," said Abhash Kumar, a trade economist and assistant professor of economics at Delhi University. Also read | India eyes Asean to boost pharma exports An MIP is not outright banned under WTO rules, but it can face challenges if used unfairly or for extended periods. The WTO also allows rules-based instruments like tariffs or anti-dumping duties backed by formal investigations. India imposed an MIP on steel in 2016, but later replaced it with WTO-compliant remedies like safeguard duties.
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Auto companies seek govt help for magnet imports
NEW DELHI: The automobile industry has sought govt support in expediting approvals from the Chinese govt for importing rare earth magnets used in various applications, including passenger cars. As per sources, various domestic suppliers have already sought approval from the Chinese govt through their local vendors in China. However, no approvals have been granted so far, sources said. China controls over 90% of global processing capacity for the magnets, used across multiple sectors including automobiles, home appliances and clean energy. The Chinese govt has put restrictions, with effect from April 4, mandating special export licences for seven rare earth elements. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
India.com
an hour ago
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‘Silent Enemy', ‘Dangerous Adversary': What Russia's Spy Files Reveal About Its Best Friend China
Moscow, New York, New Delhi: While Vladimir Putin sings praises of an 'unbreakable friendship' with China, a leaked internal document from Russia's top security agency paints a very different picture – one that could shatter illusions of brotherhood between the two authoritarian giants. In the damning eight-page report leaked from the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), Beijing is labelled not as a partner, but as a 'dangerous adversary' silently undermining Moscow from within. According to the classified files accessed by The New York Times, the FSB has sounded alarm bells over China's growing espionage operations. The document accuses the country of covertly recruiting Russian agents, targeting disillusioned scientists, stealing sensitive military technologies and snooping on Russian Arctic expeditions – right under Moscow's nose. The timing of the leak could not be more dramatic. As Putin wages war in Ukraine and leans on China to survive Western sanctions, these revelations hit like a geopolitical thunderclap. The FSB report warns that Chinese operatives are using mining companies and academic partnerships as cover to gather intelligence and assert long-term claims on Russian territory, especially in the Arctic – a resource-rich zone Moscow considers its strategic jewel. Even more shocking, the document alleges that China has been spying on Russian troop movements in Ukraine to extract battlefield data to study Western weapon systems in action. Secret Spy File Leaked by Hackers Lacking a date, the FSB document is believed to have been drafted in late 2023 or early 2024. It was leaked by a hacking group known as Ares Leaks and later verified by The New York Times after consulting six Western intelligence agencies – all of whom confirmed its authenticity. While Moscow has stayed publicly mum, the leak is one of the strongest indicators that show that the trust between Russia and China may be a facade. The report outlines clear counter-espionage priorities aimed at stopping Chinese infiltration. It signals deep-rooted mistrust behind the scenes. Friends with Benefits? China and Russia have portrayed a united front. Since the Ukraine invasion, Beijing has bought up discounted Russian oil and gas, propped up Moscow's collapsing tech supply chains with chips and software and filled the vacuum left by fleeing Western companies. The two nations have even discussed joint moon bases and co-producing films. But the FSB's own assessment makes it clear that the so-called 'friendship without limits' may in fact be a marriage of convenience and an increasingly toxic one at that. As China continues to rise and Russia bleeds in Ukraine, Putin's trust in Xi might soon cost him more than just military secrets. It could unravel one of the world's most strategically fragile alliances. Russia and China may smile in public but in the shadows, the knives are already out.
