Why Congo and Rwanda agreed to end three decades of war

Straits Times

9 hours ago

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio (centre) with Democratic Republic of the Congo Foreign Minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner (right) and Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe on June 27. PHOTO: AFP
Why Congo and Rwanda agreed to end three decades of war
The Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda have agreed to bring an end to conflict in eastern Congo, where millions of people have died and multitudes have been displaced over the past three decades.
A US-brokered accord signed in Washington on June 27 commits the two central African nations to stop fighting, halt their use of armed proxies and work together to develop the natural resources that lie along their shared border.
There is well-founded skepticism over whether the truce will last. Distrust between the two long-standing foes runs deep and it's unclear whether their forces and a multitude of militias will heed instructions to lay down their weapons.
Why have relations between Congo and Rwanda been so fraught?
More than 100 groups are engaged in ethnic disputes or fights over land, minerals and political representation in eastern Congo.
Rwanda's main gripe is the presence of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, or FDLR.
Its members have links to the Hutus who perpetrated the 1994 genocide in Rwanda that left at least 800,000 people dead – most of them Tutsis, the country's other main ethnic group.
A rebel group known as the M23 says it's been fighting the FDLR to protect Congolese Tutsis who face discrimination.
Rwanda's military has backed the M23, while Congo's army has worked alongside the FDLR. The conflict reached new heights in 2025 when M23 forces annexed the region's two main cities.
While the US and United Nations say Rwanda supported the operation, President Paul Kagame said he was unsure if his forces were involved.
Mr Felix Tshisekedi, Congo's leader, has argued that Rwanda's main aim is to exploit Congo's bountiful natural resources and any other issues it raises are merely a pretext to gain access.
What are the key provisions of the peace deal?
The accord provides for a cessation of hostilities, a halt to support for armed groups, the neutralization of the FDLR and increased regional economic integration. It will also lay the groundwork for refugees and displaced people to return to their homes in eastern Congo. The signatories agreed to support separate peace talks between Congo and the M23, while the US, Qatar and the African Union will help resolve any disputes.
An economic component of the agreement is expected to be hammered out as soon as July. On the cards is the establishment of shared processing and trading ventures that will enable both Congo – where most of the minerals are situated – and Rwanda to jointly benefit. Possible developments could include a $760 million hydropower plant, gas-powered electricity projects and tourism enterprises in national parks.
What role will the US play?
The US government is offering to invest directly in the region and encourage American companies to follow suit, an undertaking it hopes will help convince the Rwandan and Congolese governments to stick to the peace deal.
Both the African nations signed off on a provision requiring them to explore partnerships with US President Donald Trump's administration and US firms – which could potentially become involved in energy generation and the mining of tantalum and other minerals.
Congo has also offered the US the chance to invest more broadly in its economy, including in infrastructure development and in lucrative copper and cobalt mines in the country's southeast.
The Trump administration has made securing critical mineral supply chains a pillar of its foreign policy, and Congo has some of the world's best resources.
What are the key challenges?
Congo's talks with the M23 are ongoing.
Both Rwanda and the rebel group will need to agree to stand down for any peace deal to meaningfully move forward, and there's no guarantee they will be prepared to do that.
It will also be a challenge to get Congo's army to fight and disarm the FDLR on Rwanda's behalf.
The M23 rebellion is just one of dozens of conflicts in eastern Congo, all of which ultimately need to be addressed to restore region-wide stability.
The governments will also need to figure out what to do with tens of thousands of members of demobilised armed groups who will need to sustain themselves.
Finding a way to stop the smuggling of minerals – gold in particular – is likely to prove troublesome. Bullion is trading at all-time highs and thousands of rebels and soldiers make their living through a regional trade in the metal that's worth billions of dollars.
Perhaps the biggest struggle of all will be over land, with disputes over ownership likely to persist for decades.
Some 6 million Congolese have been displaced by the violence in the east of their country, while tens of thousands of Congolese Tutsi refugees have resided in Rwanda for decades, and will likely want to reclaim their property upon returning home.
What's been happening with Congo's resources?
Eastern Congo is rich in tin, tungsten, gold and tantalum – a mineral used in portable electronics.
There have been multiple attempts to formalise the trade over the years and stop armed groups from benefitting from it. The initiatives, including certification schemes, bagging and tagging programs, and international sanctions, have proved largely ineffective.
The M23 control trade from the world's richest tantalum ore mine.
Multiple armed groups control huge gold deposits and the trade has been almost impossible to track because, unlike tin or tantalum, bullion is easy to melt down into small quantities that are easy to transport.
Both Rwanda and Uganda have gold refineries – some of which have been sanctioned by the US or European Union for buying from conflict zones – and they are major contributors to export earnings.
While the peace deal calls on Congo and Rwanda to clean up their mineral supply chains and jointly develop processing infrastructure, it doesn't address how the illegal gold trade should be tackled. BLOOMBERG
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