Re-drafting No. 1 picks from 2010 to 2020, plus the Derek Carr situation

New York Times

14-04-2025

Inside: We're redrafting No. 1 picks from 2010 to 2020, explaining New Orleans' QB situation and hearing Caleb Williams' first impressions about Ben Johnson in Chicago. Let's get controversial!
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The buildup to the NFL Draft is months in the making. By late January, mocks begin in earnest. February is for the combine. In March, we learn the implications of free agency. April brings pro days and … news that Derek Carr's 2025 is in jeopardy. Wait, what? Let's tag in Dianna:
Yes, the 34-year-old is dealing with a shoulder injury that could end up costing him the entirety of the upcoming season. While that became public knowledge on Friday, it didn't come as a surprise to Carr or to the New Orleans Saints; both player and team have known surgery is a possibility.
That adds some more intrigue to the Saints' draft plans, as they own the ninth overall pick. They've drafted quarterbacks each of the past two years (Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener), but haven't drafted one in the first round since Archie Manning in 1971.
Back to you, Jacob.
Thanks, Dianna. It's unclear when this shoulder injury occurred (though he suffered multiple shoulder injuries in 2023). But for an example of a play that couldn't have helped: In his most recent game, Week 14 of last season, he went airborne, attempting to dive past two Giants for a first down.
Ouch. His left hand took most of the impact, causing a broken bone, while his face absorbed the rest (he was also evaluated for a concussion). Heck, even his right shoulder might've been impacted by the ball. These combined with a Week 5 abdominal injury to cost Carr seven games in 2024, the first time in his 11-season career that he's missed more than two games. It sounds like 2024's trend could continue.
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Amid growing uncertainty over Carr's future, it's fair to ask the obvious: Why can't the Saints just cut him? They can, but … After restructuring his contract in early March, the Saints would incur a $20.4 million dead-money hit if they release him after June 1, per OverTheCap. After counting their draft picks, they have exactly $20.5 million in effective cap space.
Those numbers suggest Carr might not be long for New Orleans, but there's a complication. If cut, his dead-cap hit in 2026 is $59.6 million, per OverTheCap. Then again, if they keep him, his current 2026 cap number would be nearly $70 million (!). Maybe I'm missing something, but a cut seems possible here. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported Carr, who has a no-trade clause, was open to testing the market earlier in the offseason.
On the field, Carr's absence would mean fewer dangerous catches for Chris Olave. Before then, it'd influence the Saints' draft plans at Nos. 9, 40 and 71, since Rattler (0-6, 57 percent completion percentage in 2024) and Haener (0-1, 46.2 percent) played like career backups in Carr's stead last year.
New Orleans has hosted the following quarterback prospects so far:
Oddsmakers currently see the Saints passing on those names for a bigger one: Shedeur Sanders, whom DraftKings favors to land in New Orleans (-110), with Pittsburgh (+350) a distant second.
What about the other prospects? Derrik Klassen plays matchmaker to find the best fit for every quarterback prospect, and when it comes to Sanders, oddsmaker and matchmaker agree.
Now let's re-draft some No. 1 picks.
I rarely get things right the first time. My first public pronunciation of yacht was when I yelled, 'YAKT,' during a family game of Taboo. My first attempt to microwave chicken (wrapped in aluminum foil) nearly burned down my school.
This gives me plenty of sympathy for general managers, who aren't perfect either. Inspired by Nick Baumgardner's brave re-draft of the 2024 first round, I re-drafted every No. 1 pick from 2010 to 2020. Quickly:
2010: Instead of Sam Bradford, the Rams draft 10-time Pro Bowl OT Trent Williams, who anchors their line for over a decade.
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2011: The Panthers again draft Cam Newton. You can debate which player is the best, but J.J. Watt, Von Miller and Cameron Heyward can't top the impact of the MVP who led Carolina to a 15-1 season and a Super Bowl appearance.
2012: There's an argument for Indianapolis again taking Andrew Luck, but I'd prefer the career of a third-rounder: the 10-time Pro Bowler, Super Bowl champion and airplane-exercising Russell Wilson.
2013: Instead of OT Eric Fisher, the Chiefs draft … Travis Kelce, two rounds earlier? There's a case for OT Lane Johnson, but Kelce leads this class in All-Pro nods (four), Pro Bowls (10), pop superstar girlfriends (one), $100 million podcasts (one), Super Bowls (three), etc.
2014: Instead of DE Jadeveon Clowney, the Texans draft future Hall of Fame DT Aaron Donald, whose eight All-Pro first-team nods top all players drafted since 1985. But this hit, though!
2015: Instead of Jameis Winston to Tampa, I'd go with third-round DE Danielle Hunter, who's recorded 10-plus sacks in six of his nine seasons and made five Pro Bowls. There's a case for Patriots WR Stefon Diggs, but Hunter's still playing at a higher level.
2016: The Rams stick with Jared Goff, believe it or not. Tyreek Hill, Chris Jones and Jalen Ramsey also went in this draft, but the debate is between Goff and fourth-rounder Dak Prescott. I tend to lean Prescott, but PFR gives Goff the edge in weighted career value, and Dak's missed a lot of games.
2017: Myles Garrett was a no-brainer at No. 1, but now the Browns draft Patrick Mahomes. As probably the best class of the past 15 years (though 2011 is close), 2017 also introduced T.J. Watt, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Dion Dawkins and, well, the first four years of Deshaun Watson's career.
2018: In real life, Cleveland again missed on MVP-level quarterbacks, passing on Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson only to trade Baker Mayfield to the Panthers for a conditional fifth-round pick a few years later. Rather than resume the Allen vs. Jackson debate, I'm going with Allen, the passer who has missed less time.
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2019: The Cardinals again draft Kyler Murray. There's a strong argument for Nick Bosa, as Murray's only once led an Arizona team with a winning record. Still, it's a quarterback-driven league. A.J. Brown, Maxx Crosby and Quinnen Williams deserve mentions.
2020: The Bengals keep Joe Burrow. It's even more obvious now, with the career of No. 2 pick Chase Young having unfolded. Great as a rookie, Young took a step back before an ACL tear. He's never regained his rookie form.
Time allows us to reflect on the careers of players like Burrow 📈 and Young 📉 in ways that first seasons often fail to foreshadow. Just take Bryce Young, who looked overwhelmed in year one before arguably outplaying C.J. Stroud by the end of year two.
This means Nick Baumgardner's 2024 redraft, an exercise without that benefit of time, couldn't have been easy.
Here are four players who shot up Nick's 2024 re-draft board:
Read the full article for his No. 1 pick: Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels?
Teams with new coaches began their offseason training programs last week, meaning it was head coach Ben Johnson's first opportunity to lead the Bears.
'He said that you never forget your first day as a head coach,' explained QB Caleb Williams. '(He) set a precedent for what we're going to be like as a team, finding our identity and all of that.'
Johnson's already challenging his quarterback. After Day 1, he was already testing Williams and the others on what they learned Monday.
'Today we had our first quiz in the QB room,' Williams said. 'Already first day in and (he's) challenging us. Everybody loves a challenge in this sport. It's one of the great things about this sport. Every day is a challenge and today we got our first one.'
Kevin Fishbain has the inside scoop from Johnson's first day.
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