Russia close to hammering Ukraine with 1,000 missiles and drones a day
With the aircraft badly damaged, the pilot made a split-second decision to steer away from the populated area below and crash into an empty field, rather than give himself enough time to eject.
The Ukrainian lieutenant colonel died 'like a hero', the nation's air force said, during what was Russia's largest combined missile and drone barrage of the war so far.
Some 537 aerial weapons – 477 drones, mostly Iranian-made Shaheds, and 60 missiles – were launched late on Saturday and early Sunday last weekend.
That record was swiftly broken early the following Friday, when Russia launched 550 missiles and drones at Ukraine.
Russia's surging defence industry, bolstered by an expanded missile plant in Votkinsk and rapidly expanding supply chains, could soon allow Russia to fire 1,000 missiles and drones at Ukrainian cities in a single night.
Vladimir Putin hopes that by sustaining repeated onslaughts, he can wear down morale among Ukraine's population, deplete Kyiv's defences and undermine the West's appetite to maintain its support.
'They target population centres because they're trying to exhaust Ukrainian air defence, and they know Ukrainian air defence will prioritise defending the cities and critical infrastructure,' Michael Kofman, a leading analyst of Russian and Ukrainian military operations, told The Telegraph.
Credit: State Emergency Service of Ukraine
Russia's defence industry, aided by Chinese firms helping it dodge Western sanctions, is now stockpiling enough weapons to sustain at least two more years of war, with drone production up 17 per cent in May alone.
Compounding Ukraine's vulnerability is the recent decision by the United States to pause key weapons shipments, some of which were already en route through Poland.
A Ukrainian intelligence source told The Telegraph that the absence of Patriot air-defence missiles in particular could leave major cities such as Kyiv exposed.
'There are some things only the US can supply,' the source said. 'The loss of anti-ballistic missile PAC-3 interceptors will leave previously safe cities such as Kyiv wide open to Russian ballistic missile attack.'
Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Centre for Security and Cooperation, warned that while Ukraine's front-line air defences remained robust, its civilian infrastructure was more vulnerable.
'The suspension of US arms supplies poses a challenge not so much on the battlefield as on the home front,' he told The Telegraph. 'Russian aerial terror is growing every month and is targeting Ukrainian cities and civilians.'
Fabian Hoffmann, a research fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project, also warned that while the global production of Patriot missile interceptors was growing, only half of them were destined for Europe as a whole, meaning Ukraine could receive even less in the coming years.
There is, however, no suggestion that Ukraine is in immediate danger of running out of air defence systems.
A source close to the Ukrainian military, speaking anonymously, said: 'Even though Ukraine wants more all the time, the reason that is said is because you can never have enough and you have to plan for the future.
'Ukraine is always looking for people that are willing to offer them an additional supply but they're actually okay on air defence systems throughout the rest of this year.'
Ukraine, for its part, continues to boast impressive interception rates. Its air force shot down 270 of 550 targets on Friday, including two cruise missiles. Another 208 targets were lost from radar and presumed jammed.
Still, the drones that do get through are lethal. At least six people were killed in that single night of strikes on June 28, while 14 were admitted to hospital on Friday.
As ground-based air defence systems become stretched, Ukraine has turned to fighter jets to down incoming drones – as Lt Col Ustymenko's fatal mission demonstrated.
Rustem Umerov, Ukraine's defence minister, said Russia was seeking to 'exhaust our air defence… and apply psychological pressure' on Ukrainians through relentless drone raids.
'Thank God we are alive,' Liza Sherstyuk, an aid worker in Sumy, told The Telegraph. 'Every day we are under bombardment. On Monday night my good friend's home was destroyed. My friend's father was killed and her mother is seriously injured in hospital.'
Kyiv has shown it can hit back hard. In May, a Ukrainian drone strike on a microelectronics plant in Zelenograd forced several Moscow airports to close. The plant produced semiconductors used in Russian radar and missile systems.
Last month, Ukrainian drones smuggled aboard freight trucks hit four Russian airfields – one more than 2,500 miles from the Ukrainian border. Kyiv claimed 41 aircraft were damaged, including bombers and an A-50 spy plane.
The aim of such long-range strikes is not only to retaliate against Russia on its own turf, but to erode its ability to wage high-volume aerial warfare.
Yet Russia is digging in. Despite a recent pledge by Putin to cut defence spending next year, few believe it will stick.
'Russia announces plans to spend less on defence in future years all the time,' said Mr Kofman. 'It has absolutely no bearing on what they end up doing.'
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However, compared to stocks in the rest of the world, the US market remains flat. The pound fell against the dollar as the US was poised to impose steeper tariffs on trading partners around the world. Sterling slipped 0.3pc to around $1.36 as Donald Trump said a dozen countries would receive letters with their new, higher levies. However, the dollar remained close to its four-year lows against the pound and the euro and earlier hit its weakest since 2015 versus the Swiss franc. So far, only Britain, China and Vietnam have agreed any sort of trade deal with the Trump administration. James Kniveton, an analyst at payments company Convera, said: 'Market volatility appears inevitable when the pause officially ends and new tariff levels are announced.' He added: 'Unlike previous announcements where tariff levels exceeded expectations, current proposals are largely anticipated. Moreover, markets appear to be pricing in continued deadline extensions.' US stock indexes were mixed as investors grappled with uncertainty around US tariff policies. Donald Trump said countries would receive letters today outlining their new tariff rates, which are due to come into effect on August 1. The US president had initially imposed a 90-day suspension to tariff which was due to expire on Wednesday. He has also threatened to impose an extra 10pc tariff on countries aligning themselves with the 'Anti-American policies' of the Brics group of nations. US markets were poised for an uncertain start to the week, days after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed last week about 0.5pc away from its own record high. Tesla dropped 6.6pc in premarket trading after Elon Musk announced the formation of a new US political party, marking a new escalation in his feud with Trump. The US president said the car maker's billionaire boss had gone 'off the rails'. Ahead of the opening bell, the Dow was flat while the S&P 500 was down 0.3pc. The Nasdaq 100 was lower by 0.4pc. China opposes tariffs being used as a tool to coerce others, its foreign ministry said, after Donald Trump threatened an extra 10pc tariffs on countries aligning themselves with the Brics nations. Spokesman Mao Ning said the use of tariffs serves no one. China and Hong Kong stocks fell as anxiety over US trade policy intensified. China's blue-chip CSI300 closed down 0.4pc at 3,965.17, while the Shanghai Composite Index barely changed at 3,473.13 as Donald Trump said trading partners would receive letters today setting out new tariff rates due to kick in from August 1. In Hong Kong, the benchmark Hang Seng was down 0.1pc to 23,887.83. German industrial production rose more strongly than expected in May, official data showed Monday, boosting hopes that Europe's largest economy has turned a corner despite trade tensions with the United States. Output from manufacturing, mining, and utilities companies rose by 1.2pc compared to April, after dropping 1.6pc in the wake of Donald Trump's 'liberation day' tariffs, the federal statistics agency Destatis said. The rebound was driven by a surge in energy output and a strong performance from the beleaguered automotive sector, where production was up 4.9pc. Overall, industrial production was up 1pc on the same month last year, underlining hopes that the worst might be over for German industry after a series of strong production and orders data releases since the start of the year. ING bank analyst Carsten Brzeski said the data 'increased the likelihood' that the industrial recovery of recent months was driven by more than 'front-loading' as a result of customers putting in orders before US tariffs take effect. 'It's too early to give the all-clear, but signs of at least a cyclical rebound, albeit from low levels, are increasing', he said. South Africa is not anti-American and still wants to negotiate a trade deal with the United States, a trade ministry spokesman said. Donald Trump threatened an extra 10pc tariff on countries aligned with the Brics group, which is holding a summit in Brazil. The US president accused Brics, of which South Africa is a member, of 'anti-American' policies on Sunday. South Africa has been trying to negotiate a trade deal with Trump's administration since May, when Trump hosted President Cyril Ramaphosa for talks in the White House. 'We still await formal communication from the US in respect our trade deal but our conversations remain constructive and fruitful,' trade ministry spokesman Kaamil Alli told Reuters. 'As we have communicated previously, we are not anti-American,' Alli said. The US treasury secretary indicated some countries will be given the option of an extension to Wednesday's tariff deadline. Scott Bessent said the Trump administration was 'going to be very busy over the next 72 hours' in the run up to the July 9, when the 90-day pause on the US president's 'reciprocal' tariffs is due to come to an end. Mr Trump has said trading partners will receive letters from the US by 5pm UK time outlining what their tariff rates will be. Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said those new rates would come into effect from August 1. Mr Bessent acknowledged there had been 'a lot of congestion going into the home stretch', adding that the US president's letters to trade partners was effectively a bid to get the process moving. He told Fox News: 'By telling our trading partners that they could boomerang back to the April 2 date, I think it's really going to move things along the next couple of days and weeks.' He told CNN: 'If you want to speed things up, have at it. If you want to go back to the old rate, that's your choice.' Japan must diversify trade ties beyond the US to mitigate the risks caused by Donald Trump's trade war, one of its opposition parties has said. Hirofumi Yoshimura, co-leader of the opposition Japan Innovation Party, said Tokyo should seek a 'win-win' situation in trade negotiations. He said the tariffs imposed by President Trump show how the US has become a source of uncertainty that could hurt Japan's economy. 'Japan should expand trade ties with countries that focus on free trade,' such as Europe, and leave itself more options to protect its economy, he told Reuters. 'Instead of standing on just one, big pillar like the US, Japan should stand on, say, five to 10 smaller pillars. That's a better approach to avoid its roof from falling off.' The views of small, opposition parties such as the Japan Innovation Party could gain importance after an upper house election on July 20, where Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could lose its majority, according to recent polling. Elon Musk's plan to launch a new political party has reignited his feud with Donald Trump and sparked a backlash among Tesla investors. Shares in the electric car company slumped in pre-market trading on Monday morning after the US president publicly criticised Mr Musk's plans to set up the America Party. Donald Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social late on Sunday night: 'I am saddened to watch Elon Musk go completely 'off the rails', essentially becoming a TRAIN WRECK over the past five weeks.' The UK's government borrowing costs edged lower despite rises across Europe ahead of Donald Trump's new tariff rates. The yield on 10-year UK gilts – a benchmark for the cost of servicing the national debt – edged down to 4.54pc. However, eurozone bond yields rose as markets focused on new US tariff rates. Germany's benchmark 10-year bund yields increased two basis points to 10-year Treasuries held steady at 4.34pc. Britain has signed a trade agreement with the US which limits tariffs on the car industry, although a deal has yet to be made on steel. The European Union has prepared a package of retaliation measures if the US presses ahead with its tariff plans against the bloc. President Trump said the United States is close to finalising several trade agreements in the coming days and will notify other countries of higher tariff rates by 5pm UK time. Higher rates are expected to take effect on August 1. Donald Trump said he would put an additional 10pc tariff on any country aligning with the Brics group of nations. The alliance, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, held a summit over the weekend. In a joint statement, leaders took a swipe at President Trump's trade policy, which they said 'distort trade and are inconsistent with WTO rules'. President Trump said he would impose tougher tariff on any country leaning towards 'the Anti-American policies of Brics'. He wrote on his Truth Social platform: 'There will be no exceptions to this policy.' The original Brics group gathered leaders from Brazil, Russia, India and China at its first summit in 2009. The bloc later added South Africa and last year included Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates as members. Stock markets have struggled in the run-up to Donald Trump's tariff deadline. While the White House has said several deals were in the pipeline, only two with Britain and Vietnam have been finalised ahead of the July 9 cut-off set by the US president. Governments from major trading partners including Japan, India, the European Union and South Korea have fought for the past three months to get agreements. President Trump said he will send his first tariff letters at 5pm UK time, setting out what Washington will charge for doing business with the United States. The FTSE 100 was down 0.1pc in early trading to 8,811.15, while Nikkei 225 in Japan closed down 0.6pc at 39,587.68. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong was down 0.3pc to 23,849.37 while the Cac 40 in Paris was flat at 7,694.28. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more. Sign in to access your portfolio
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2 hours ago
- Yahoo
OPEC Production Increase Misguides Markets
Global oil markets are again showing the impact of emotions and misinterpretation. The so-called surprise production increase taken by eight (8) leading members of OPEC is, in principle, not relevant for fundamentals or market stability, as it is only an indication. The presented production increase is based on raising the OPEC production ceiling—not to be taken as opening the valves to flood markets. At the same time, international media are again treating the situation as set in stone, while most headlines indicate that it is a strategic decision made by OPEC+, the ongoing cooperation between OPEC and non-OPEC members such as Russia and Kazakhstan. The latter is entirely incorrect, as the production ceiling decision was made by a select group of OPEC members, excluding Moscow and others. Where markets are also wrong is in not taking into account that major oil producers and OPEC members, such as Iran, are not even involved in the ongoing discussions regarding the unwinding of OPEC production quotas. Statements like 'the global oil market is entering uncharted territory' or 'OPEC+ is accelerating its production increases' are based on biased assessments that don't reflect real facts on the ground. Even the two main production increases announced by OPEC in the last month didn't result in an oil glut, as most member countries didn't fill their new quota volumes. Some even needed to cut their existing export volumes to comply with OPEC agreements. For Russia and others, global oil markets are not determined by OPEC or OPEC+, but by sanctions (in Russia's case) or the appetite of importers in Asia to absorb volumes. Most analysts also underestimate U.S. shale oil production and the willingness of the world's largest producer, the U.S., to compete for market share. While drilling is under pressure, U.S. shale oil and petroleum exports continue to increasing geopolitical and geo-economic conflicts—particularly in the Middle East, Ukraine, and potentially Asia—demand for oil and gas remains robust. This indicates promising upside in the months ahead. China's latest economic figures show 5% GDP growth in H1 2025, remarkable given the Trump tariff war and broader Western economic pressure. Doomsday scenarios about peaking demand or an Asian market implosion are driving current bearish oil views. While OPEC has raised production ceilings—137,000 bpd in April, 411,000 bpd in May and June, and now targeting 548,000 bpd in August—prices haven't collapsed as feared. The extra barrels may pressure prices, but no crash appears imminent. OPEC-8 strategies need reassessment. Saudi Arabia and the UAE seem to have deprioritized price stability in favor of regaining market share and boosting exports. Unlike past market-share battles, today's economic conditions appear more favorable, giving producers confidence to act. Officially, production agreements show increased volumes, but real-world output remains below those levels. Most OPEC producers are still unable to meet their quotas. Thus, fears of a glut are overblown. The main parties affected won't be consumers or producers, but international oil companies. While margins may tighten—as Shell has warned—the situation is not dire. Shell's comments about a fragile H2 2025 shouldn't spark panic. Bullish signals remain: renewed Houthi activity in the Red Sea, threats against Iran, Russia's economic decline, and growing demand for private power generation all support the case for higher oil prices. Despite IMF concerns, ROW markets—especially Africa and Asia—are driving demand growth. Even in OECD markets, demand stays strong despite EV adoption. One simple fact remains: Western governments earn more from one barrel of oil than OPEC does. By Cyril Widdershoven for More Top Reads From this article on Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
