Israeli Shekel's Calm Under Threat as Options Signal Turmoil
Options traders are bracing for the Israeli shekel to experience wilder moves than at any time since the start of the Gaza war in 2023 — a hedge against any breakdown in the resilience it's so far shown against the nation's multiple ongoing conflicts.
Implied volatility, a bet on currency turbulence reflected in one-month derivatives, jumped to the highest since March 2023 this week, surpassing levels seen when Hamas attacked Israel in October that year and triggered a multi-front conflict. That's left the shekel as the most volatile currency in the world, excluding the Russian ruble, according to Bloomberg rankings.
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Yahoo
30 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Gold price today, Wednesday, June 18, 2025: Gold opens strong ahead of Fed projections
Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $3,409 per ounce Wednesday, up 0.7% from Tuesday's close of $3,386.60. The price of gold has opened above $3,400 three times this month but has stopped short of beating its all-time high of $3,485.60, set in April. Economic and geopolitical factors favor ongoing gold demand. Conflict in the Middle East, plus President Donald Trump's changing tariff demands, create uncertain outlooks for oil prices, inflation, and the overall health of the U.S. economy. While stock prices are still up for the year, investors may react to the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, to be released Wednesday. Any sign the Fed expects rates to remain high this year could trigger lower stock prices. Gold demand, and thus gold prices, typically rise when investors are pessimistic about stocks. The opening price of gold futures on Wednesday is up 0.7% from Tuesday's close of $3,386.60 per ounce. Wednesday's opening price marks a gain of 2.4% over the past week, compared to the opening price of $3,328 on June 11. In the past month, the gold futures price has risen 5.6% compared to the opening price of $3,227.70 on May 16. In the past year, gold is up 47.5% from the opening price of $2,311.80 on June 18, 2024. Don't forget you can monitor the current price of gold on Yahoo Finance 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Want to learn more about the current top-performing companies in the gold industry? Explore a list of the top-performing companies in the gold industry using the Yahoo Finance Screener. You can create your own screeners with over 150 different screening criteria. As we've been saying all week, investing in gold is a four-step process, and today, we'll explore step 3, choosing a form. Once you define your target gold allocation, you must choose a form of gold to hold. Your three options are: Physical gold Gold mining stocks Gold ETFs Physical gold includes jewelry, gold bars, and gold coins. The advantages of physical gold include: Readily accessible for use. If you keep your physical gold at home, it is easily available for you to use as a medium of exchange in an economic emergency. No added volatility or ongoing fees. Gold mining stocks tend to rise and fall with gold prices, and business-related factors enhance their volatility. Gold ETFs charge administrative fees in the form of expense ratios. Learn more: Take a deeper dive into the gold sector The disadvantages of physical gold include: Risk of theft or loss. Physical gold must be properly secured. Whether you store it in your home or with a depository, gold can be stolen. Lower liquidity. Physical gold is less liquid than stocks or ETFs. If you are not using the gold as a medium of exchange, you may need to locate a dealer and pay a markup on the sale. Owning shares in gold mining stocks provides indirect gold exposure. The advantages of mining stocks over physical gold include: Greater liquidity. Large-cap gold mining stocks like Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) and Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) generally enjoy a narrow bid-ask spread, which is a sign of liquidity. The bid-ask spread is the difference between what buyers will pay and what sellers will accept. Easy to store. Stocks live in your brokerage account and do not consume physical space. In normal times, this is an advantage. In an economic catastrophe, this could be a disadvantage if brokers or the stock market are temporarily shut down. Learn more: The top performing companies in the gold industry The disadvantages of owning gold mining stocks include: Greater volatility. Since 2000, gold mining stocks have risen and fallen faster than gold spot prices. And in recent years, gold mining stocks have trended down even as gold has gained value. No utility as a medium of exchange. Gold mining stocks can appreciate, but they have no direct utility as a medium of exchange. Gold ETFs are funds that invest in gold mining stocks or physical gold. Their advantages include: Easy to store. Like gold mining stocks, ETF shares are essentially digital assets with no storage requirements. Greater liquidity. Shares of the most popular gold ETFs, like SPDR Gold Shares ($GLD), are heavily traded which implies good liquidity. Tied directly to gold prices. ETFs backed by physical gold can be less volatile than gold mining stocks or gold mining ETFs. The disadvantages of gold ETFs include: Fund fees. Funds charge fees, which dilute returns over time. For context, the expense ratio of SPDR Gold Shares is 0.40%. This translates to $4 in fees annually for every $1,000 invested. No utility as a medium of exchange. As with gold mining stocks, you probably cannot use ETF shares to trade for food in an economic emergency. Whether you're tracking the price of gold since last month or last year, the price-of-gold chart below shows the precious metal's steady upward climb in value. Historically, gold has shown extended up cycles and down cycles. The precious metal was in a growth phase from 2009 to 2011. It then trended down, failing to set a new high for nine years. In those lackluster years for gold, your position will negatively impact your overall investment returns. If that feels problematic, a lower allocation percentage is more appropriate. On the other hand, you may be willing to accept gold's underperforming years so you can benefit more in the good years. In this case, you can target a higher percentage. The precious metal has been in the news lately, and many analysts are bullish on gold. In May, Goldman Sachs Research predicted gold would reach $3,700 a troy ounce by year-end 2025. That would equate to a 40% increase for the year, based on gold's January 2 opening price of $2,633. Rising demand from central banks, along with uncertainty related to changing U.S. tariff policy, are the factors driving the increase. If you are interested in learning more about gold's historical value, Yahoo Finance has been tracking the historical price of gold since 2000.
New York Times
34 minutes ago
- New York Times
Trump and the Middle East Weigh on the Fed
If there is one story to watch on Wednesday, it will be this: what Jay Powell, the Fed chair, says about the economic impact of conflict in the Middle East and how it might change the central bank's forecasts about interest rates in the coming months. We also take a look at the fallout of the Musk-Trump breakup for an overlooked stakeholder: China. Trump and Iran loom over the Fed President Trump's increasingly bellicose remarks about Iran over the past 24 hours — he's called for the country's 'unconditional surrender' as it exchanges barrages with Israel — may not exactly be scaring investors. But it has thrown the Fed a curveball. The central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday. Markets will be watching closely the Fed's rates forecast and Jay Powell's news conference. High on the agenda will be questions about whether the Fed chair sees conflict in the Middle East and higher oil prices creating a new inflation risk that forces the central bank to keep rates higher for longer. A recap: In March, the Fed signaled that it would lower its benchmark lending rate by half a percentage point this year. (Trump, who has repeatedly chided Powell for not cutting rates sooner, argues that two full percentage points of cuts are warranted.) A lot has happened since then. Moody's cut America's triple-A credit rating, citing Washington's inability to manage the nation's fiscal hole. Nonpartisan congressional analysts estimate that the House version of Republicans' huge policy bill would grow the national debt by $3.4 trillion and potentially jolt the market for Treasury notes and bonds. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
Forbes
38 minutes ago
- Forbes
Fed Day & Elevated Distribution. What It Means For Stocks
The stock market fell on Tuesday after tensions increased in the Middle East. This is one, if not the most, news driven market in recent history. Stocks are reacting a lot to headlines these days, and Tuesday was no exception. Trading was busier than usual for popular exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like the QQQ which tracks the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P which follows the S&P 500. Tuesday marked the seventh 'distribution day' for these ETFs—a sign that big institutional investors are selling stocks. The big news on Wednesday will likely come from the Federal Reserve. Let's break down what's happening and why the market might still have room to in the Middle East Shakes Things Up Bad news from the Middle East began last week but increased this week after Trump hinted the US might get involved. When tensions rise in that region, investors often worry about things like higher oil prices or disruptions to global trade. Two big factors that could send stocks lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all ended the day lower. A measure of market fear, called the VIX, rose, showing investors were on edge. Investors are also looking at energy prices. With oil prices climbing above $70 a barrel. Remember, higher energy prices acts as an indirect tax on both consumers and businesses. More Distribution Days: A Signal to Watch Tuesday's heavy trading in the QQQ and SPY ETFs marked their seventh distribution day in recent weeks. A distribution day happens when an ETF or index falls and more shares are traded than the day before, suggesting big institutional investors are selling stocks. Normally, under 5 distribution days are considered normal in a few week period. But when the number of distribution days increases, that usually increases the odds the market might pullback. For now, it's a yellow flag, not a red one. It is important to note that volume on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were lower on Tuesday and that is an encouraging Market's Still Close to Record Highs Despite the gloomy headlines, here's some good news: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are only about 2-3% below their all-time highs. That's a very bullish sign. Why? Because it is not the news that matters but how the market reacts to the news. With all the negative headlines out there, the market is holding up remarkably well. Right now, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are 'only' 2-3% below their record highs. Which means, one or two good days and we can breakout of this long trading range and hit all time highs. This strength suggests stocks are still in a bullish mood—meaning they're more likely to go up than down as of right now. That can easily change if we get more distribution. Fed Day: What Will the Central Bank Say? All eyes are on the Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday, June 18, 2025, with an announcement set for 2 p.m. ET. Most people expect the Fed to keep interest rates steady. But what investors really care about is what Fed Chair Jerome Powell says afterward and what the Fed's 'dot plot' shows. The dot plot is a chart that reveals what Fed officials think interest rates will do in the future. That can change but it is a good sign of what the Fed is thinking right now. Recently, the Fed predicted two rate cuts this year, which gave investors hope for lower interest rates. If the Fed sticks to that plan, it could calm, or even boost, markets. But if they hint at fewer cuts—or none at all—stocks might take a hit. Investors are also curious about how Powell will handle questions about pressure from the White House to cut rates to boost the economy. What It All Means for Investors The market is range-bound right now and remains perched below its record high. Even though we had big swings this year, the market is trading near where it was six months ago. With Middle East tensions and the Fed's decision in the spotlight, the stock market can go either way. If Powell and the Fed are dovish (more rate cuts, not less), stocks could easily rip higher. On the other side, if the Fed is hawkish (not going to cut -or do the unthinkable right now and hint at raising rates), we can easily see more to Watch Next Investors should keep an eye on a few things. First, will we breakout and hit new highs or get more distribution days for the QQQ & SPY? Second, watch the Middle East situation—especially oil prices, which impact the economy. Third, the Fed's announcement on Wednesday. Beyond Powell's words and the dot plot, the Fed's updated forecasts for economic growth, inflation, and jobs will give more clues about where things are For now, caution makes sense. We haven't broken out to new all time highs yet. If/when we do, the environment will get a lot more bullish. Until then, we have seven distribution days for the QQQ and SPY which is a concerning sign. At the end of the day, even though we have a lot of negative headlines from trade to possible war, etc, it is very encouraging to see that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are just 2-3% below their record highs. One thing's clear: in this news-driven market, a single positive headline could send stocks to new highs. If we don't breakout, we can easily have another leg down. It's never a dull moment on Wall Street.
