Top A-level grades may remain higher this year than pre-pandemic levels
Professor Alan Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research (CEER) at the University of Buckingham, has raised concerns that grade inflation 'may be creeping back in again'.
Last year, more than a quarter (27.8%) of UK A-level entries were awarded an A or A* grade, up from 27.2% in 2023.
In a report, published ahead of A-level results day, Prof Smithers said he believes this year's results 'are likely to be close to what they were in 2024'.
It was the highest proportion of entries scoring top grades outside the pandemic-affected years of 2020-22.
In 2019 – the last year that summer exams were taken before the pandemic – 25.4% of entries were awarded A or A* grades.
The Covid-19 pandemic led to an increase in top A-level and GCSE grades in 2020 and 2021, with results based on teacher assessments instead of exams.
Ahead of A-level results day on Thursday next week, Prof Smithers said the grade pattern in 2024 'could be the start of a new normal'.
He added that the proportion of UK A-level entries awarded A or A* grades – of between 27% and 28% – could be the 'new norm' for results.
Figures covering A-level entries from students in England, Wales and Northern Ireland will be published by the Joint Council for Qualifications on Thursday.
Ofqual brought A-level grading standards back in line with pre-Covid levels in England in 2023, and exam regulators in Wales and Northern Ireland aimed to return to pre-pandemic grading last summer.
Prof Smithers said A-level grades should have been 'back to normal' last year, but he added that they rose to a level higher than pre-Covid years.
He added: 'There has to be the suspicion that the inflation which bedevilled A-level grades in the days before the regulator, Ofqual, may be creeping back in again.'
In his report, Prof Smithers also suggested that 'girls will do better than boys' once again at the top A-level grades.
Last year, the proportion of girls' A-level entries awarded A or higher was 28.0%, which was 0.4 percentage points higher than the equivalent figure for boys' entries (27.6%).
But the proportion of boys' entries awarded A* was 9.5% – which was 0.4 percentage points higher than girls (9.1%).
Prof Smithers has suggested that the success for boys at A* will 'continue to be overshadowed in 2025 by the longstanding superior results of girls overall'.
He said: 'Sadly, the under-performance of boys is no more likely than in previous years to receive the attention it deserves.
'They and the country would benefit considerably if ways could be found of ensuring that the potential of many boys is not wasted.'
Reflecting on provisional exam entries data for England, Prof Smithers said a decline in the social sciences this summer 'could be an early sign that they have been rumbled' in promising more than they deliver.
A-level entries for psychology and sociology are down, but entries for mathematics, physics and chemistry are up, according to provisional figures from Ofqual in June.
Prof Smithers said: 'The swing towards maths and the physical sciences could be a response to the former government's promotion of them.'
He added: 'I wonder if there is growing recognition that these social sciences promise more than they deliver, whereas the quantitative may be hard but they are meaningful.'
A Department for Education spokesperson said: 'These claims are completely false.
'It is vital that qualifications are rigorous, and we are confident in Ofqual's work, as the independent regulator, to manage the risk of grade inflation and ensure this is not impacting standards.
'This suggestion demonstrates a lack of understanding of Ofqual's role and the work they do every year to ensure fairness, with this year being no different.'
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Teenagers are set to receive top A-level grades next week as a high proportion of A*s and As becomes the 'new normal', analysis suggests. Prof Alan Smithers, the director of education at the University of Buckingham, who forecasts exam results each summer, said last year's bumper A-level grades were likely to continue in 2025. In a report published ahead of A-level results day next Thursday, he said grade inflation 'may be creeping back in again' following an explosion in top marks during the pandemic. 'A-level grades have a chance to settle down this year after the volatility of Covid and its aftermath. They are likely to be close to last year's, where top grades were a percentage point or two above pre-Covid levels,' said Prof Smithers. The rate of A*s handed out at A-level had been steadily declining since the exams regulator was introduced in 2010 to clamp down on grade inflation, until this trend was suddenly reversed during the pandemic. Top grades surged in 2020 and 2021, when formal exams ground to a halt during Covid lockdowns and were temporarily replaced with more generous teacher assessments. It resulted in the proportion of A*s nearly trebling between 2019 and 2021, with almost one in five A-levels awarded the top possible grade four years ago. Ofqual, the exams watchdog, has been working to gradually bring the rate of A*s and As back to pre-pandemic levels over the past few years, but pupils performed unexpectedly well last year and saw top grades tick back up slightly. More than nine per cent of A-level entries were awarded A*s last year and 18.5 per cent were handed As. This meant that 27.8 per cent of exam entries received the top two grades in 2024, up slightly from 27.2 per cent in 2023, and above the pre-pandemic rate of 25.4 per cent in 2019. Prof Smithers said that although last year's surprise top grade boost has made this year's results harder to predict, 'my best guess is that the grade pattern in 2024 could be the start of a new normal'. 'It may be that grades never get back to what was regarded as the norm before the Covid crisis, and 2024 has set the new benchmark,' he said. Figures covering A-level entries from students in England, Wales and Northern Ireland will be published by the Joint Council for Qualifications on Thursday. In his report, Prof Smithers suggested that 'girls will do better than boys,' once again by achieving top A-level grades this summer. Boys tend to make up a greater share of the very best marks in the country, as they gravitate more towards subjects such as further maths and physics. Pupils are more able to score marks close to 100 in these, compared to subjective subjects like the humanities. However, girls have consistently performed better than boys overall over the past few years. Last year, 28 per cent of A-level entries sat by girls received an A or higher, compared to 27.6 per cent of boys. 'Sadly, the under-performance of boys is no more likely than in previous years to receive the attention it deserves,' said Prof Smithers. 'They, and the country, would benefit considerably if ways could be found of ensuring that the potential of many boys is not wasted.' Universities are expected to open their doors this year to school leavers who narrowly miss out on grades as many institutions grapple with a worsening financial crisis. Jo Saxton, head of the university admissions service UCAS, said she expects 'a record number of 18-year-olds will wake up with confirmation' that they have been accepted at their top university choice next Thursday, adding: 'Quite possibly even where they are near-misses.' 'It's a really, really good year to be a UK-domiciled 18-year-old that wants to go to one of our world-class universities,' she said. Nick Hillman, director of the Higher Education Policy Institute think tank, added that this year's cohort of school leavers are 'well placed' to get where they want to study, even if they score just shy of their university offers. He said: 'The financial plight of universities makes them very keen to fill their courses and they will be falling over themselves to sign up good potential students.'
