‘Superman' Bulletproof With A- Cinemascore, Big Domestic Debut Weekend
David Corenswet stars in "Superman."
Superman's Super-Numbers
Superman entered Friday with nearly $25 million from early domestic fan/preview screenings during the week. That brings the estimated Friday cume to roughly $57 million in North America, plus or minus around a million. Friday's figures include about $34 million from Friday proper, on top of the early showings.
International numbers were at around $18 million entering the weekend, with more markets entering the picture through the weekend.
This all bodes well for Superman, if trends continue upward as seems logical to assume at this point. Generating family turnout is the main ingredient to a true blockbuster opening, and the holds across the weekend will tell us whether the film's strong marketing campaign did the trick.
The Cinemascore of A- and 82% 'Fresh' rating from critics via Rotten Tomatoes already tells us it's pretty safe to assume Superman is popular across demographics, and those families will keep showing up.
Which is why I expect Superman to beat current forecasts of $115 million by a good margin, and finish with at least $125 million domestic and more likely $130-135 million. If I'm overly bullish on the film's chances, it's because I fully expect the family demographic to show up in huge numbers worldwide as word of mouth spreads.
There are decent odds Superman could even beat my own lofty prediction, and wind up toward $140 million, as I've suggested before, if the positive buzz and swirling socio-political public debate around the film stirs additional sense of must-see status.
But that's a very high-end outcome, and more likely is something between $125-135 million, with $130 million still feeling to me like the spot where Superman will land.
I hasten to note, my own 'low-end' estimate is higher than most other people's 'high-end' estimate for Superman at this point, so don't think a $125 million opening isn't terrific and ahead of most expectations. I simply feel the film has more potential and expect audiences to respond to smart nuanced marketing that has a message targeted at every key demographic.
Overseas, Superman looks headed for similar overachievement. Global totals should be somewhere in the vicinity of $25o million, but there is a lot of sway here until we see how Saturday is shaping up with more than 20 additional markets joining the party as international rollout continues.
$250 million or something approaching it – let alone exceeding it – means Superman is destined for a bare minimum of $500 million, because there is zero chance a film with these numbers and this much broad support will do less than double its opening weekend. Notice where just a modest 2.7x final multiplier positions it, well north of $600 million, and a summer 3x would be 'they're dancing at WBD and DC Studios headquarters today' territory.
We'll have a pretty good idea of precisely how much champaign to pop today, because Saturday's figures domestic and global will confirm at least the minimum weekend outcome, and how the holds are trending in the three-day multiplier, so the minimum final multiplier becomes easier to gauge.
For now, I'll note I already expect a $750 million outcome is most likely for Superman, with the range being $700-800 million, low-end to high-end in my own expectations. The question to my mind, and that this weekend will help determine, is whether it's likely to finish at the higher end or lower end of that range.
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