Drewry WCI continues to see bearish tone, drops 3%
The volatility began after US tariffs were announced in April, which caused rates to surge from May through early June. This was followed by a steep decline until mid-July, after which the downward trend lost momentum and the pace of decline slowed considerably.
Drewry WCI fell for the eighth straight week, down 3 per cent to $2,424 per FEU on August 7. Transpacific rates declined, with Shanghaiâ€'Los Angeles down 4 per cent and Shanghaiâ€'New York down 7 per cent, while slight easing was seen on several other routes. Drewry expects spot rates to remain relatively stable in the short term but warns of renewed weakness in the second half of 2025.
Transpacific spot rates fell this week, with Shanghai–Los Angeles down 4 per cent to $2,534 per FEU, and Shanghai–New York down 7 per cent to $3,826 per FEU. Since the rush to ship cargo ahead of the tariff increase has subsided, Drewry expects spot rates to remain less volatile in the coming week.
Rates eased slightly on Shanghai–Rotterdam ($3,276 per FEU), Los Angeles–Shanghai ($711 per FEU), and Rotterdam–New York ($1,996 per FEU). Meanwhile, Shanghai–Genoa fell 4 per cent to $3,227 per FEU, Rotterdam–Shanghai slipped 1 per cent to $489 per FEU, and New York–Rotterdam dropped 3 per cent to $853 per FEU.
Drewry's Container Forecaster expects the supply–demand balance to weaken again in the second half of 2025, causing spot rates to contract. The volatility and timing of rate changes will depend on President Donald Trump's future tariff decisions and on capacity changes linked to the US penalties on Chinese ships, both of which remain uncertain.
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