
Playbook: Laura Loomer's next target
With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco
On today's Playbook Podcast, Adam Wren and Dasha Burns talk about Laura Loomer's new campaign against Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s orbit, geopolitical jockeying ahead of the Trump-Putin summit and the latest questions about the trustworthiness of economic data.
Good morning, and happy Wednesday. I'm Adam Wren. Have any tips, comments or questions? Send them my way.
In today's Playbook …
— First in Playbook: Laura Loomer is going after RFK Jr.'s top aide. We have her surprising explanation — and the latest on why the MAHA report has been held up.
— President Donald Trump will join Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other European leaders at an emergency virtual summit about the war in Ukraine at 9 a.m.
— And as of this morning, the National Guard has now deployed across Washington.
DRIVING THE DAY
WELLNESS CHECK: After successfully ousting several officials in the Trump administration over allegations of insufficient loyalty, far-right activist and MAGA influencer Laura Loomer tells Playbook that she has her next targets: HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Stefanie Spear, his principal deputy chief of staff and senior counselor.
'I'm not naive enough to think that the president is going to get rid of RFK, but I will say that … there are concerns about some of the staffing decisions over at HHS,' Loomer tells Playbook.
At the top of those concerns — at least to Loomer's eyes — is Spear, who in addition to being one of Kennedy's closest aides, served on his 2024 presidential campaign as his travelling press secretary and principal communications staffer.
Across the West Wing, there is not much good will for Spear, multiple people in the president's orbit tell Playbook's Dasha Burns. Even without Loomer's campaign, she's been a thorn in their side for months. Spear is said to tightly control access to Kennedy, and administration officials have expressed concern about her influence and proximity to Kennedy, as POLITICO has previously reported.
But it's the reason why Loomer is aiming at Spear that raised our eyebrows.
THE 2028 ANGLE: 'I think that there's a clear intention by Stefanie Spear to utilize her position to try to lay the groundwork for a 2028 RFK presidential run,' Loomer alleges. Asked how she knew that, Loomer cited 'sources in HHS.'
Spear did not return calls or texts but looped in a senior HHS leader who called Playbook.
The senior HHS official did not deny that Kennedy is weighing a presidential bid.
A Trump administration official told Dasha that they 'would not be surprised if [Kennedy is] thinking about' a 2028 bid. 'But,' this person said, 'I don't think anyone thinks it's a real threat.'
The view from HHS: 'Secretary Kennedy and his team are laser-focused on delivering President Trump's promise to Make America Healthy Again — ignoring the Beltway gossip and political crystal-balling,' HHS acting chief of staff Matt Buckham told Playbook. 'With my dedication to the president and long-standing commitment to his initiatives, I know when people are truly aligned with his goals. Together, we are driving bold reforms including lowering drug prices, eliminating harmful ingredients from our food supply, and addressing the root causes of the chronic disease epidemic.'
LOOMER DIGS IN: Kennedy has long raised Loomer's hackles. She has called him a 'Marxist' and 'a very problematic person.' And her new focus on Kennedy's department comes following Vinay Prasad's reinstatement to his role regulating vaccines — just two weeks after Loomer led a successful campaign for his ouster over allegations that he was a 'progressive leftist saboteur undermining President Trump's FDA.'
Similar accusations of ideological disloyalty to MAGA center in Loomer's crusade against Spear.
'There's been some things that have happened,' Loomer says. 'There's been several things that have happened at HHS that are contradictory to the initial promises made.'
Spear is a founder of EcoWatch, an environmental news outlet that aims to 'empower readers to make informed, environmentally-conscious decisions that support a sustainable future for everyone.' Earlier this year, Loomer posted screenshots from Spear, including one from 2016 in which she accused now-Secretary of State Marco Rubio of being a 'climate change denier,' and one from 2020 arguing that 'fossil fuels [are] more deadly than cigarettes, malaria, HIV/AIDS.'
In January, WSJ reported that Spear 'told others she would be Kennedy's chief of staff, [but] was passed over for that post in favor of a veteran of the first Trump administration — in part because of her vaccine priorities and in part because of her lack of experience, according to people familiar with the matter.' Axios' Brittany Gibson reported last month that Spear joined a MAHA PAC call to back a potential Kennedy 2028 bid.
Loomer previously told POLITICO that she fields tips from administration officials about colleagues they want booted out. She has played a role in the ouster of a number of administration posts in recent months. Trump has said he likes Loomer, and that 'she doesn't like things going on that she thinks are bad for the country.'
Asked to comment, a White House official told Playbook that 'Secretary Kennedy and the entire HHS team are doing a terrific job as they deliver on President Trump's mandate to Make America Healthy Again. Scores of prominent restaurant chains and food brands dropping artificial ingredients from our food supply and historic reforms at the FDA to fast track lifesaving drugs and treatments prove that the entire HHS team is delivering for the American people.'
THE MAHA REPORT: Loomer's watchful eye on Kennedy's department comes as the White House is expecting to unveil a strategy for 'making children healthy again' — an announcement that was delayed due to what the White House told POLITICO was a need to coordinate officials' schedules before releasing the report to the public.
Last night, a White House press official stood by a scheduling conflict as the reason for the MAHA report's delay.
But the official at HHS told us that 'the team at the White House and HHS is ensuring that whatever is in the report is the best possible product for the American people. If they need more time, they need more time.'
Privately, there are additional reasons for the hold up.
The delay is because the White House is taking time to review it 'to make sure it's not f--ked up like last time,' a second person familiar with the MAHA report tells Dasha, referencing an error-riddled report from the MAHA Commission earlier this year.
'The goal is just to get the damn thing right,' said a third person familiar with the report.
WAR AND PEACE
APPROACHING THE SUMMIT: Trump is due to join Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other European leaders at an emergency virtual summit about the war in Ukraine at 9 a.m. Eastern. Organizer German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and others are expected to urge Trump and VP JD Vance to step up the pressure campaign on Russia to end its invasion.
The pre-summit conversations: It's unusual for Ukraine's European allies to get to strategize with Trump before a Putin conversation like they will today, building on repeated consultations and calls between Trump's team and Europe over the past week, POLITICO's Felicia Schwartz and Eli Stokols preview. U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker has been a pivotal figure in strengthening that relationship.
But European officials still are unsure how much sway they really have over Trump's approach to the war: 'The main thing about tomorrow is whether this is a real discussion … or whether it's going to be just some nice words and no real consultation,' one says.
Lowering expectations: Trump's Friday summit with Putin will take place at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, CNN's Kristen Holmes and colleagues report, after a scramble to find a suitable venue. Press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the world leaders' meeting will be one on one — and largely a 'listening exercise' for Trump, building on the president's recent comments that downplayed hopes for a quick breakthrough or peace deal, per WaPo. And with the outcome of Friday's meeting wide open, 'critics worry that the hastily planned conversation will play into the hands of Mr. Putin, a former K.G.B. agent known as a master manipulator,' NYT's Michael Crowley reports.
Jockeying for leverage: Russia's recent battlefield advances give Putin a leg up ahead of potential ceasefire negotiations, though Ukraine is similarly working to attack Russian oil more, NYT's Constant Méheut reports. And Zelenskyy — who hasn't been invited to Alaska — held firm on concessions, telling reporters that Ukraine can't give up the Donbas region and would need any land swaps to be paired with security guarantees for Kyiv, POLITICO's Veronika Melkozerova reports. Advocating for Trump to impose more Russia sanctions, Zelenskyy also warned that 'Putin will benefit from this [summit], because what he is seeking, frankly, is photographs.' More from NewsNation
The backdrop: Perhaps complicating matters for the Kremlin is new evidence 'that Russia is at least partly responsible for a recent hack of the computer system that manages federal court documents, including highly sensitive records,' NYT's Adam Goldman and colleagues reveal.
THE MAGA REVOLUTION
HERE COME THE TROOPS: As of this morning, the National Guard has now deployed across Washington after the White House said troops arrived and started to patrol city streets last night, per the AP. D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser and local leaders projected a calm if 'uneasy partnership' with the feds — who've taken over the police department — to tackle crime in the city, which remains significant though Trump's claims of rising violent crime and dystopian mass disorder were false.
Also getting underway: Leavitt said homeless people will be forced to go to shelters for treatment — or face fines and jail, per the Washington Examiner.
Questions remain: As of last night, D.C. police were still waiting to find out whether they'd get new directives from federal overseers, WaPo's Olivia George and colleagues report. Local officers were confused by the lack of clarity, and though the White House emphasized that federal officials are in control, police chief Pamela Smith 'has been supplying ideas about how federal law enforcement could be used by D.C. — not the other way around.'
DAMNED LIES AND STATISTICS: What would E.J. Antoni do as Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner? After he floated suspending the monthly jobs report, Leavitt didn't rule out doing so for a time. Heritage's Stephen Moore told CNN's Alicia Wallace and David Goldman that Antoni has now backed off the idea. But the White House and Labor Department more broadly are weighing changes to how the government collects the data, WSJ's Josh Dawsey reports. Their aim is to lift the response rate and use technology to make the process more efficient — and to limit large revisions, because Trump has baselessly claimed they're meant to weaken him politically.
But skepticism abounds: After Trump fired Erika McEntarfer in the wake of revisions that showed the labor market in much worse shape, any alterations 'could attract criticism that Trump is trying to game the numbers for political purposes,' Dawsey writes. 'The president has long questioned data that doesn't align with his worldview. He has also taken steps to assert more control over agencies that historically operate independently.'
Antoni under fire: Economists of all ideological stripes roundly lambasted Antoni, a conservative critic of the agency, as an unqualified pick that injects partisanship into government statistics — and warned that Trump politicizing the process would make data unreliable. Axios, the NYT and the FT all round up the withering criticism, which includes economists accusing Antoni of having distorted data in the past, although some say no BLS chief can really manipulate the numbers. Nonetheless, the White House has stood firmly behind him, and it remains to be seen whether a historically compliant Senate GOP will buck Trump here.
By the numbers: Economists fear that if crucial government data is hidden or manipulated, there will be no good replacements to gauge the health of the economy, Axios' Courtenay Brown and Emily Peck report. And it's not just BLS: Trump's call for a new census, along with redactions of a farm trade report, the removal of major climate assessments and more, is part of a politicized pattern 'leaving some statisticians and demographers worried the president is undermining the short- and long-term credibility of federal data,' POLITICO's Aaron Pellish reports.
MORE FROM THE ADMIN: The Justice Department's newest collegiate target is George Washington University, which it said broke civil rights law in its handling of antisemitism, per The GW Hatchet's Ryan Saenz. … The State Department officially put out human rights reports that significantly scale back criticism of right-wing governments allied with Trump, while ramping up concerns about U.S. allies that Rubio accuses of censoring conservatives, per CBS. … Trump seemingly called for Goldman Sachs to oust its leading economist because he'd predicted negative effects from Trump's tariffs, per the WSJ. … And the FTC undercut yet another top California climate regulation, per POLITICO's Alex Nieves.
STATE CAPITALISM: 'Trump's chip deal sets new pay-to-play precedent for U.S. exporters,' by WaPo's Gerrit De Vynck and Jacob Bogage
IN THE DOGE HOUSE: The Department of Government Efficiency may have run a chainsaw through the federal workforce and foreign aid, but it has saved far less money than it claims. POLITICO's Jessie Blaeser dug into the numbers: Of $52.8 billion DOGE said it saved taxpayers by axing contracts, she was able to analyze and verify $32.7 billion — and found that in fact only $1.4 billion was saved through July, due to 'faulty math.' And the money won't tackle the deficit: It returns to agencies to be spent elsewhere.
BEST OF THE REST
RED-LIGHT REDISTRICT: The Texas gerrymandering fight keeps ramping up, at least for now. ABC13's Tom Abrahams reported that Texas Democrats may be folding, with plans to return to the state (date TBD) for Gov. Greg Abbott's next special session after waiting out his first one. Texas Republicans said they'll begin that session Friday, per WaPo. But ABC13's reporting doesn't seem to have been matched yet, and a spokesperson for the Texas Democratic Caucus told ABC that members are 'assessing their strategies going forward and are in a private meeting to make decisions about future plans currently.' The lawmakers who left for Illinois are holding a presser at 2:30 p.m. Eastern with Indiana counterparts to fight against the GOP efforts.
The escalation: Texas AG Ken Paxton went to a judge yesterday to request that Beto O'Rourke be jailed for allegedly violating an order not to fundraise for the Dems who have denied the GOP quorum in Austin, per The Texas Tribune. O'Rourke's team said Paxton was misrepresenting his words and they'd seek sanctions on the AG.
Sign of the times: As blue states seek to counterbalance Trump's unprecedented power grab with their own mid-decade mapmaking, good-government group Common Cause said it will no longer push against such efforts, POLITICO's Aaron Pellish reports. Though Common Cause said it still opposes partisan gerrymandering, 'a blanket condemnation in this moment would amount to a call for unilateral political disarmament in the face of authoritarian efforts.'
More Texas fallout: Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) said he won't run in a redrawn district that Republicans plan to gerrymander into a Trump +10 seat, teeing up a primary against fellow Democratic Rep. Lloyd Doggett, per Punchbowl's Ally Mutnick.
First in Playbook: Colin Allred's Senate campaign is holding more stops across San Antonio, McAllen and Houston this weekend to continue his 'Unrig Texas' town halls.
MORE TRAIL MIX: Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.) launched a Senate bid, per AL.com. … Democrat Mitchell Berman jumped into the race against Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.), per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. … Trump endorsed Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones for governor, per The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. … Tim Ryan has 'heightened' interest in running for governor of Ohio after Sherrod Brown reportedly opted for the Senate race, per The Plain Dealer's Jeremy Pelzer.
First in Playbook: The Andy Barr-aligned Keep America Great PAC is going up with a $1.2 million ad campaign against Nate Morris in the Kentucky Senate GOP primary. The spot calls Morris 'fake' MAGA, citing his donations to support Nikki Haley and Mitch McConnell. Watch it here
2028 watch: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear got a big reception from donors and other Democrats at House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' event, where many walked away thinking Beshear's running for president, Axios' Hans Nichols scooped.
THE CARTEL CRACKDOWN: In a big new deal with Trump, Mexico transferred 26 top drug cartel figures over to U.S. law enforcement, per the AP. The Justice Department agreed not to go for the death penalty as part of the agreement with Mexico. But POLITICO's Nahal Toosi warns this morning from Mexico City that Trump's cartel strategy may fail: Though his aggressive tactics, including labeling cartels as terrorist groups, could help, they're undercut by the lack of a more comprehensive approach. And Trump's cuts to domestic drug treatment, deportations and tariffs might end up strengthening the cartels.
JUDICIARY SQUARE: A federal judge ruled that the Trump administration must restore more than one-third of the funds it has frozen for research at UCLA, per the LA Times. … Another federal judge said ICE must improve conditions at a Manhattan detention facility, where the Justice Department admitted in court to substandard practices: 'access to medication was limited, in-person legal visits were impossible and detainees were given blankets — but not sleeping mats — to rest on,' POLITICO's Erica Orden and Kyle Cheney report.
SKRMETTI IN ACTION: After the Supreme Court gave states the green light, a federal appeals court reversed a lower judge and upheld Arkansas' ban on gender transition-related medical care for minors, per the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette's Neal Earley.
THE CONNECTICUT CRUSADER: 'Chris Murphy goes all in on funding bill boycott as Dems seek bipartisanship,' by POLITICO's Jennifer Scholtes: 'The third-term senator said in a recent interview that Trump 'doesn't give a fuck what we write' into spending legislation. And so he sees no reason to participate in the drafting of funding bills if the president is going to keep withholding billions of dollars Congress already approved and goading Republican senators to claw back more. 'Every single day, there's new evidence that our democracy is falling, and you've got to take stands. You have to take fights,' Murphy explained.'
TALK OF THE TOWN
John Tierney of City Journal and Mary Anastasia O'Grady of the WSJ will be honored with this year's awards by The Fund for American Studies for courageous journalism and career achievement, respectively.
Chuck Schumer selected Jack Schlossberg for the America 250 commission, set up to coordinate America's 250-year celebration next year.
Thomas Skinner enjoyed hanging out with JD Vance in England, though some locals protested the VP.
IN MEMORIAM — 'Judge T.S. Ellis III, 85, Dies; Stirred Outcry Over Manafort Sentence,' by NYT's Miguel Salazar: '[He] shocked many judicial observers in 2019 when he sentenced Paul Manafort, Donald Trump's former campaign chairman, to 47 months in prison after sentencing guidelines had recommended up to 24 years … Judge Ellis also oversaw the corruption trial of former Rep. William J. Jefferson … An often sharp-tongued jurist, Judge Ellis was known for sparring with lawyers on both sides in a case.'
MEDIA MOVES — Sara Kehaulani Goo is returning to WaPo as president of its new Creator Network, focused on a business model with content creators and AI separate from the newsroom. She previously was editor-in-chief of Axios. … Hannah Brandt will be a Washington correspondent at NewsNation. She previously was a reporter for Nexstar's D.C. multimedia journalist team. … Carine Hajjar has been named the 2025 Steamboat Institute fellow for public policy and American exceptionalism. She is an opinion writer and editorial board member at The Boston Globe.
TRANSITIONS — Michael Carpenter is now senior fellow for transatlantic affairs at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He previously was NSC senior director for Europe in the Biden administration and U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. … Todd Breasseale is now chief comms and brand officer at Brighton Marine Inc. He previously was senior adviser at the VA and is a Biden DOD and Obama DHS alum. … Dezenhall Resources has added Katie Runkle and Steffen Newman as associates, Amma Boateng as senior director of coalitions, MaryGrace Lucas as VP and Jana Spacek as managing director of organizational development and operations. …
… Hayden Jewett is now a partner at Thorn Run Partners. He previously was a principal at the Vogel Group. … Garrett Hawkins is now senior comms manager for public affairs at TD Bank. He previously was director of comms at the Institute of International Bankers. … The Plastics Industry Association is adding Ivy Brittain as regional director of state government affairs and Hodayah Finman as senior director of regulatory affairs. Brittain most recently was legislative affairs director for the Northern California Water Association. Finman previously was acting director of the EPA's Office of International Affairs.
WEEKEND WEDDING — Catherine Costakos, a VP on the policy comms team at JPMorgan Chase, and Brett Ruby, senior development manager at the NHP Foundation, got married Sunday at Rosecliff Mansion in Newport, Rhode Island. Their dog Artie featured prominently. The couple met on Bumble. Pic, via Hedieh Field … Another pic
WELCOME TO THE WORLD — J. Baylor Myers, VP of corporate development at BitGo and a Trump Treasury alum, and Dakota Myers, a paralegal, on Aug. 4 welcomed John Baylor Myers Jr., who came in at 8 lbs, 13 oz. Pic … Another pic
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders … acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham … Karine Jean-Pierre … former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen … Kristalina Georgieva … Larry Weitzner … Jeremy Bash of Beacon Global Strategies … Grace Davis of Rep. Tim Moore's (R-N.C.) office … State Department's Bridget Roddy … MatchPoint Strategies' Isabel Aldunate … Adam Sharon … GrayRobinson's Chris McCannell … Scott Dziengelski of King & Spalding … Gabriel Laizer … AP's Kelly Daschle … Gonzo Gallegos … Owen Jappen of the American Chemistry Council … Kelly Rzendzian … former Surgeon General Joycelyn Elders (92) … Sara Sorcher … former Reps. Tom Marino (R-Pa.) and Pete Visclosky (D-Ind.) … Ben Pack … Herald Group's Ansley Bradwell … Cate Hurley of Beyond Carbon Fund … Douglas Rivlin … Margot Roosevelt … Addy Baird … Josh Romney
Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us on Signal here. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Zack Stanton, deputy editor Garrett Ross and Playbook Podcast producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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a minute ago
- Washington Post
What will Trump's Alaska summit achieve?
You're reading the Prompt 2025 newsletter. Sign up to get it in your inbox. The highly anticipated Trump-Putin summit will take place tomorrow in Anchorage. On the agenda: how to end the Ukraine war. The meeting is sure to provide much theater, but will it yield anything else? I sat down with my colleagues David Ignatius and Max Boot to discuss. — Damir Marusic, assignment editor 💬 💬 💬 Damir Marusic Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk reportedly said, 'I have many fears and a lot of hope.' David, Max, how are you feeling ahead of the sit-down? David Ignatius For me, it's a mix of hope and dread. The hope is that President Donald Trump, having committed so much to ending a war that he rightly condemns as a bloodbath, will lean hard enough on Russian President Vladimir Putin to get terms that reasonable people could sell to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his country. The fear is that Trump will simply listen to Putin's demands and either seek to impose them on Ukraine or walk away from his diplomatic mission. If I had to guess, I'd opt for the fearful version. Max Boot I have more fear than hope. I see no indication that Putin is going to call off his war (which is making little progress on the ground). The offer Putin apparently made to special envoy Steve Witkoff — he is demanding that Ukraine turn over unconquered, well-defended territory in the Donetsk region in return for a ceasefire — is a nonstarter for Ukraine. Story continues below advertisement Advertisement Damir I'm maybe a bit more optimistic. Not in the sense that there will be any progress, but the opposite: The White House seems to be lowering expectations about what's possible. Trump on Monday told reporters, 'It's not up to me to make a deal.' Max Yes, I'm mildly cheered to see the White House lowering expectations. But I also know that Trump is mercurial and unpredictable, and he loves surprises. So the chances of Putin-Trump meeting in private and hatching some kind of deal (or, more exactly, the framework of a deal) and Trump coming back to proclaim 'peace for our time' are not negligible. I don't see that as the likeliest outcome — and I am also buoyed by the fact that Trump was able to say no to a bad offer from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at their last summit — but it's a real danger. David Trump's flair for the dramatic is what got him into this negotiation in the first place. And recalling his diplomacy with Kim, it's hard to imagine him just having a 'listening exercise' and then saying, 'See you later, Vlad.' One way or another, I suspect Trump will want some drama. Max My concern level will rise if Trump and Putin meet alone, with only interpreters. That's what happened at their last meeting in Helsinki, and it was a disaster. I hope Trump will take Secretary of State Marco Rubio, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg and others into the room with him (but preferably not Witkoff, who has proved very credulous in dealing with Putin). David An important baseline for Anchorage will come today, when Trump speaks with European leaders and Zelensky about what Europe might do to support Ukraine against continuing Russian aggression even if the U.S. backs away. Story continues below advertisement Advertisement Damir The danger for me seems to be that Trump is still in thrall to the idea that everyone just wants to make money. During that Monday news conference, in the same breath as he said it was not up to him to make a deal, he seemed to hold out hope that normalizing economic relations with Russia could bring Putin to the table, saying that Putin has to get back to rebuilding his country. David Trump has always had a fantasy that there are 'trillions' to be made in a future Russia. People keep trying to talk him out of that misjudgment, I'm told. Yet it persists. Weird. Max I thought reality was dawning for Trump last month when he started denouncing Putin for having nice conversations but then continuing to bomb civilian centers. Trump was finally on the right track in threatening massive sanctions and agreeing to supply weapons to Ukraine (albeit with the Europeans buying them first). But then he did another U-turn last week, following Witkoff's meeting with Putin, again blaming Zelensky for starting the war and pretending that Putin is interested in peace. The whole summit is built on a fundamental misunderstanding: Trump thinks Putin wants to end the war. What Putin really wants is to win the war. David Trump has tried every possible approach to diplomacy. Term sheets. Timelines. High-level meetings. But he keeps coming back to his core idea that it's only a meeting between the two big guys — him and Putin — that can resolve this, so we end up in Anchorage with very little work done on the shape of a settlement or clarity about what it might involve. Story continues below advertisement Advertisement Damir Is there any sense that Trump still has the 'stick' of secondary sanctions in mind? Max I don't know what Trump will do, but if he's serious about making a deal with Putin, he first has to impose the full gamut of pressure and wait for the sanctions to bite. He is making a major blunder by prematurely rushing into a summit when there is no indication that Putin will make any concessions. David I think Trump would love to use China and India as leverage to get Putin to make concessions. I'm told that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has included Ukraine in his conversations with Chinese officials, and obviously Trump has threatened India with heavy secondary sanctions if it continues to buy oil from Russia. But my guess is that these efforts will fade if Trump encounters an immovable obstacle in Putin on Friday. Damir An immovable Putin wouldn't cause him to double down, but fold? Is it TACO all over again? Max Trump has said he may conclude there is no deal to be had and walk away. That's fine, if it happens. The question is what happens next. Will he just ignore the entire war, thereby giving Putin a free hand? Or will he return to his threats of sanctions for Russia to punish Putin for intransigence? Trump doesn't have to insert himself into the peacemaking process — ultimately, it will be up to Russia and Ukraine to make peace, and thus far Putin is not even willing to meet Zelensky — but Trump does need to continue backing Ukraine. David I don't like the TACO analogy. It just eggs Trump on, as near as I can tell. I think the question for Trump is how much he's willing to risk to gain a peace in Ukraine that's desperately important for Europe but less so for the United States. And the answer, probably, is that he's not willing to risk much.

a minute ago
Ukraine, left out in Trump-Putin summit, fears setbacks on key peace issues
LONDON -- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that the Friday meeting between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin "will not achieve anything" if peace talks exclude Ukraine. Decisions taken without Kyiv's input will be "stillborn decisions," Zelenskyy continued. "They are unworkable decisions. And we all need real and genuine peace," the president said in an address to the nation last weekend. Ukrainian expectations for the summit in Alaska are low, amid fears in Kyiv that the American and Russian leaders will seek to dictate Ukraine's future without its participation. Zelenskyy's talks with European leaders and Trump on Wednesday, though, did appear to find consensus on key Ukrainian demands according to subsequent statements from Zelenskyy and his European counterparts, including that Kyiv will be the one to decide on any territorial concessions and that no such concessions can occur without binding security guarantees. "We must learn from the experience of Ukraine, [and] our partners, to prevent deception by Russia," Zelenskyy said in a statement posted to social media on Wednesday. "There is no sign now that the Russians are preparing to end the war," he added. "Our coordinated efforts and joint steps -- of Ukraine, the United States, Europe, all countries that want peace -- can definitely force Russia to make peace." Trump said Wednesday after the virtual meeting with Zelenskyy and European leaders that there will be "severe consequences" against Russia if Putin did not agree to stop his war on Ukraine. Oleksandr Merezhko -- a member of the Ukrainian parliament and chair of the body's foreign affairs committee -- likened the coming Alaska summit to the 1938 Munich Agreement -- a pre-World War II accord by which European powers allowed Nazi Germany to annex part of Czechoslovakia without Prague's consent. "Putin secured a one-on-one meeting with Trump, providing an opportunity to influence U.S. policy and push for abandonment of Ukraine and European allies," Merezhko told ABC News. "Putin would like to use the summit to persuade Trump to blame Ukraine for the lack of progress on a ceasefire and give him a pretext to walk away from the negotiations," Merezhko said. "Putin is a very masterful manipulator and he will go into Friday's meeting well prepared," Merezhko added. "He will go in with well-prepared, planned and rehearsed talking points." John E. Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine now working at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, said Putin "wants a deal with Trump that will be presented to Kyiv and other European capitals as a fait accompli." The Kremlin's goals remain the "elimination of Ukraine as a state and as a culture, elimination of NATO and undermining of the U.S. global positions," Pavel Luzin, a Russian political analyst at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts, told ABC News. There are several key -- and thorny -- issues for the two leaders to discuss. Territory Territory has been a main source of conflict between the two countries since Russia's annexation of Crimea and fomentation of separatist revolt in eastern Ukraine in 2014. Putin has remained firm in his demands. Any peace settlement, Moscow has said, must include "international legal recognition" of its 2014 annexation of Crimea and four regions it has occupied to varying degrees since launching its full-scale invasion in 2022. Russia demanded that Ukrainian troops withdraw entirely from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions -- including areas that Russian troops do not control. The Kremlin claimed to have annexed all four regions in September 2022. Moscow also wants Kyiv to give up on any designs on taking back occupied Crimea. Ahead of Friday's meeting, Trump suggested that a "swapping of territories" could lead to a peace deal. However, Ukrainian officials quickly rejected that idea. Zelenskyy held that the country would not give up any of its land, saying in a Saturday statement, "Ukrainians will not gift their land to the occupiers." The president has since said that any decisions on territorial concessions must be made by Ukraine, and that no such concessions can occur without Ukraine receiving binding security guarantees that include the U.S. NATO ambitions Russian officials are also looking for their own "security guarantees" regarding NATO, by which Ukraine would be permanently excluded from the alliance, which has a mutual defense agreement among members. Putin has regularly expressed concern over NATO's eastward expansion, framing the alliance's growth as an existential security threat to Russia. He has repeatedly warned the alliance against accepting Ukraine as a member, accusing the organization of trying to turn the country into a launch pad for aggression. Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister, Alexander Grushko, said in March that Moscow is seeking "the neutral status of Ukraine, the refusal of NATO countries to accept it into the alliance." Ukrainian officials have continued in their bid to join NATO -- an ambition that has the backing of the vast majority of Ukrainians and is enshrined in the national constitution. During a news conference earlier this year, Zelenskyy offered to step down from the presidency in exchange for admission to NATO. "If to achieve peace you really need me to give up my post -- I'm ready. I can trade it for NATO membership, if there are such conditions." NATO nations, while backing Ukraine in its defensive war, have refused to allow Kyiv's accession to the alliance. The alliance agreed at a 2008 summit that Ukraine "will become a member of NATO," but the leaders of key allied nations -- including the U.S. -- have said Kyiv cannot accede while it is at war. Limits to Ukraine's military Russian officials have demanded limits to the size of Ukraine's military, which Moscow has framed as necessary to ensure its own security -- a claim dismissed by Kyiv as false. During peace negotiations in the opening days of the full-scale invasion, Moscow demanded that Ukraine reduce its military size to 50,000. Zelenskyy, however, has expressed concern that any reductions to Ukraine's military could allow Russia to secure more Ukrainian land, even with Western support. "The best thing is a strong army, a large army, the largest army in Europe. We simply have no right to limit the strength of our army in any case," he said in December. Russia is also demanding limits on Ukraine's weapons arsenals and the sophistication of its military technology. In the days leading up to Friday's meeting between Trump and Putin, Ukraine has increased its long-range drone strikes into Russia. Ukrainian officials have said such attacks are part of its strategy to force the Kremlin into genuine peace talks. Sanctions The lifting of international sanctions on Russia may also be discussed during Friday's meeting. Russia is currently the world's most sanctioned country with "50,000 or so measures," according to The Center for European Policy Analysis. Russian officials have stated that a peace treaty should include lifting sanctions imposed since 2022. The European Union has refused requests to reduce sanctions against Russia before a peace deal is secured, and Zelenskyy has called Putin's suggestion that reductions could lead to lasting peace "manipulative." Trump has threatened to impose further sanctions on Russia and its top trading partners if Putin fails to commit to a ceasefire. Earlier this month, the U.S. announced additional tariffs on India related to its purchases of Russian oil. "Everyone sees that there has been no real step from Russia toward peace, no action on the ground or in the air that could save lives," Zelenskyy said earlier this week. "That is why sanctions are needed, pressure is needed."

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US, Philippines discuss missile system deployments as tensions rise
MANILA, Philippines -- The United States is discussing the possible deployment of more missile launchers to the Philippines to strengthen deterrence against aggression in the disputed South China Sea and other Asian security hotspots, but no final decision has been reached by both sides, Manila's ambassador to Washington said Thursday. The U.S. military delivered a mid-range missile system called the Typhon, a land-based weapon that can fire the Standard Missile-6 and the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile, to the northern Philippines as part of joint combat exercises in April last year. That was followed by the transport by the U.S. military of an anti-ship missile launcher in April this year to the northernmost Philippine province of Batanes, just a sea border away from Taiwan. Beijing strongly protested the installation of the U.S. missile systems, saying they were aimed at containing China's rise and warning that these would threaten regional stability. China has asked the Philippines to withdraw the missile launchers from its territory, but officials led by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. had rejected the demand. Ambassador Jose Manuel Romualdez said without elaborating that the possible deployment by the U.S. of more Navy Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System or NMESIS missile launchers"was being discussed for consideration by both sides.' The anti-ship missile systems could be installed along Philippine coastal regions facing the South China Sea and outlying regions to beef up deterrence against aggression, he said. 'This is part of the strong U.S. and Philippines defense partnership,' Romualdez told The Associated Press. Romualdez spoke on the sidelines of a trade and investment conference in Manila, where he and Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro encouraged major U.S. companies to invest in a wide array of industries — from energy and telecommunications to infrastructure and navy shipbuilding — in the Philippines, the oldest treaty ally of the U.S. in Asia. 'When U.S. companies invest here, it's not just about returns on capital — it's about returns on alliance,' Romualdez told U.S. business executives at the conference. 'A stronger Philippine economy means a more capable and reliable defense partner for the United States.' 'At a time when America is diversifying supply chains and rethinking global strategy, we are a natural choice – and a strategic necessity,' Romualdez said. 'I ask you to carry this message to the Trump administration: `Every U.S. dollar invested in the Philippines strengthens America's position in the Indo-Pacific.'' U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth flew to Manila in March in his first visit to Asia and said the Trump administration would work with allies to ramp up deterrence against threats across the world, including China's increasingly aggressive actions in the South China Sea. The U.S. was not gearing up for war, Hegseth said then, but underscored that peace would be won 'through strength.' China claims virtually the entire South China Sea. The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also have overlapping claims to the resource-rich and busy waters, but confrontations have spiked between Chinese and Philippine coast guard and naval forces in recent years. On Wednesday, the U.S. briefly deployed two warships in what it called a 'freedom of navigation' operation off the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea where two Chinese navy and coast guard ships collided earlier in the week while trying to drive away a smaller Philippine coast guard vessel. The high-seas accident sparked alarm among Asian and Western countries. 'Freedom of navigation is essential for the trillions of dollars worth of commerce that passes through these waters,' the U.S. ambassador to the Philippines, MaryKay Carlson, told reporters on the sidelines of the Manila investment conference. 'It's about commerce. It's about lives and livelihoods.'