41 per cent of Canadians support Mark Carney's move to recognize Palestinian state: poll

Calgary Herald

3 days ago

A plurality of Canadians believe Canada's move to recognize a Palestinian state is a good idea, while nearly one-third of Canadians are against it, according to recent polling.
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The polling by Leger for Postmedia found that 41 per cent of poll respondents support Prime Minister Mark Carney's decision to recognize a state of Palestine. In late July, Carney's office announced that if certain conditions were met, Canada would recognize such a state at the United Nations General Assembly in September.
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'From a government policy perspective, I've seen governments put forward policies that have less support than that, and managed to get things through. So, I don't think this is going to be a big challenge, big issue for the government,' said Andrew Enns, Leger's executive vice-president for central Canada.
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The possible Canadian recognition came with some conditions that are unlikely to be met. They include commitments from the Palestinian Authority (which exercises partial control over the West Bank) to reforms including holding elections in which the Hamas terror group plays no role and to 'demilitarize the Palestinian state.'
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The poll found 28 per cent of Canadians believe it to be a bad idea, while 31 per cent told pollsters they did not know if it was good or bad or refused to answer.
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Enns said previous polling shows that awareness of the conflict between Israel and Gaza is relatively high, but people are clearly struggling to know what the right answer is around Palestinian statehood.
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While Leger hasn't asked poll respondents specifically about the recognition of a Palestinian state, previous polling from Innovative Research Group found, in June 2024, around 49 per cent of Canadians believed that a state should be created for Palestinians.
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Support for a Palestinian state is highest in Quebec, at 44 per cent, followed closely by British Columbia at 42 per cent and Ontario at 41 per cent. In Atlantic Canada, 40 per cent believe it's a good idea. The Prairie provinces are the most skeptical: just 33 per cent of those in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta believe such a move is a good one.
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Atlantic Canadians, at 13 per cent, are the least likely to say it's a bad idea. Twenty-five per cent of Quebecers, 28 per cent of Ontarians, 30 per cent of those in B.C. and 34 per cent of those in Manitoba and Saskatchewan also say it's a bad idea. Albertans, at 40 per cent, are the most likely to say that it's a bad idea.
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'I wondered whether or not the lower support for the move by the Canadian government is maybe more tied to the politics and the fact that there's less Liberal support in Alberta and the Prairies,' said Enns. 'Maybe it's just a bit of a reaction to 'Well, if this is what the Liberal government is doing, I don't think I like it.''
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Men are more likely than women (43 per cent to 38 per cent) to say it's a good idea, but they're also more likely to say it's a bad idea (36 per cent to 21 per cent); women are far more likely to have said they don't know.
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The youngest Canadians are also by far the most likely to support the Liberals' move to recognize a Palestinian state, with 47 per cent support among those between the ages of 18 and 34. Among the next age cohort, from 35 to 54, only 36 per cent support Carney's move, while the oldest Canadians, in the 55 and older category, support the move at a rate of 40 per cent.
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'That younger cohort tends to be … little bit more engaged with the Palestinian cause,' Enns said.
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Liberal voters, at 60 per cent, and New Democrats, at 62 per cent, are the most supportive of the move, while just 21 per cent of Conservatives say it's a good idea. Fifty per cent of Bloc Québécois voters and 44 per cent of Green party voters support the move. In comparison, 57 per cent of Conservatives say it's a bad idea, compared to just 13 per cent of Liberal voters, nine per cent of NDP voters, 20 per cent of Bloc voters and eight per cent of Green voters.
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The data was collected from an online survey of 1,617 Canadian adults between Aug. 1 and Aug. 4. Data has been weighted according to age, gender, mother tongue, region, education and presence of children in the household in order to ensure a representative sample of the Canadian population. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size yields a margin of error no greater than plus or minus 2.44 per cent, 19 times out of 20.