SNP's ‘reckless spending' blamed for £2bn benefits black hole
The SNP Government has been accused of creating a welfare black hole that could reach more than £2 billion by 2030 because of 'reckless spending'.
The Scottish Conservatives said the SNP's budget for benefits 'far outstrips' the money it receives from the UK Government for welfare spending.
They highlighted calculations by the independent Fraser of Allander Institute showing how Scotland's block grant will reduce in the coming years because of cuts announced by the UK Labour government in its Spring Statement.
Analysis shows that, due to these changes, the black hole in Scotland's welfare budget by the end of the decade will jump from £1.7 billion to £2.1 billion.
Liz Smith, the Scottish Tories' shadow social security secretary, described the black hole as 'completely unsustainable' and accused the SNP of 'doing nothing to rein in Scotland's enormous benefits bill'.
'The SNP's reckless spending on welfare was already set to saddle Scottish taxpayers with a colossal £9 billion bill,' she said.
'The broken election promises and budget cuts of the UK Labour Government have just made that even more unaffordable. What was a mammoth £1.7 billion black hole in the welfare budget is set to soar to over £2.1 billion.
'This black hole is completely unsustainable and yet the nationalists are apparently doing nothing to rein in Scotland's enormous benefits bill, and it's Scottish taxpayers who will pick up the tab.
'They are being hammered by two high-tax, high-spend left-wing governments. Only the Scottish Conservatives are arguing for policies that would balance the books and put money back in people's pockets.'
Rachel Reeves, the UK Chancellor, announced nearly £5 billion in benefit cuts by the end of the decade to restore a narrow buffer of fiscal headroom, with £1 billion to be invested in employment support to help people back to work.
The changes will hit three million families on incapacity benefits and see personal independence payments drop for 800,000 claimants.
According to the Fraser of Allander Institute, Labour's budget will deduct £455 million from the Scottish budget by 2029-30.
A separate analysis by the Scottish Fiscal Commission has warned that in the 20 years from 2030-31, the average annual funding gap will be 1.5 per cent, which amounts to £1.3 billion.
'Higher taxes and cuts'
It has led to concerns that ministers may seek to raise taxes or impose cuts in other areas to fill the gap, although savings could be made by improving health.
Shirley-Anne Somerville, the social justice secretary, said: 'Our investment in social security will provide vital assistance to enable older people to heat their homes, to help disabled people live independent lives and will keep thousands of children out of poverty.
'The Scottish Fiscal Commission's December 2024 forecasts show that our investment in social security over and above the money we get from the UK Government is projected to be less than 3.5 per cent of the total Scottish Government resource budget by 2029-30.
'By contrast, in pursuit of its self-imposed fiscal rules, the UK Government is determined to impose austerity and its own analysis estimates its welfare changes announced last month will push a further 250,000 people, including 50,000 children, into relative poverty. They should change course and abandon these cuts.
'We will publish our next medium-term financial strategy later this year, alongside a fiscal sustainability delivery plan. Those calling for cuts in Scottish social security spending should spell out exactly which groups of people they would remove help for.'
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