The Short Porch is thinking about Pete Crow-Armstrong and pitchouts
If you are a fan of checking out leaderboards, have I got some leaderboards for you. Entering play today, 60 games into the season, your WAR leader in the National League is Pete Crow-Armstrong. That's true whether you're a fan of fWAR (3.6) or bWAR (3.8) and it doesn't take a lot of digging into the numbers to see how the Cubs centerfielder has played himself into the highly speculative early MVP conversation. He's slashing .281/.313/.562 with 15 home runs, 21 stolen bases and 51 RBI a little more than a third of the way through the season.
I could talk about the bat or the glove for days, and probably will dig into both later this season. However, today I want to talk about PCA's baserunning and speed because it's contributing to circumstances I'm not sure I've ever seen on a baseball field. Take, for example, this play last night [VIDEO].
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The probability that PCA can and will head home sets up a situation where José Tena has to try and hold PCA on third, but by the time he's done that even Carson Kelly can leg out that grounder. That effectively turns an out into a baserunner because of the fear of the run. That's quite the trick if you can pull it off.
But that highly improbable event happens a few times a season. And nothing prepared me for the more bizarre moment that involved PCA last night. Unfortunately this didn't make the highlight reel for a video, but I grabbed some screenshots.
After PCA took a walk against former Cub Andrew Chafin to put runners at first and second with one out Carson Kelly hit a single to load the bases with Happ at third, PCA at second and Kelly at first. Michael Busch drew a walk to score Happ and keep the bases loaded. Dansby Swanson got called out on strikes on an outside pitch for the second out:
Dansby is called out on a questionable strike three
That set up one a play I'm not sure I've ever seen in an MLB game. Nico Hoerner, one of the best contact bats in baseball, comes to the plate with two down, the bases loaded and PCA at third. PCA knows his existence at third base is enough to cause distractions, and he decides to take advantage by dancing down the line in eyesight of Nationals reliever Cole Henry:
PCA dancing down the line
It looks mostly like PCA is trying to 1) take the attention of the battery while they try to get Nico out and maybe, if he's lucky, 2) induce a bad throw to cause some chaos. He's not all that far down the line even though he's moving a lot and it'd be silly to try and steal home with two outs and the righty on the mound. You can see where PCA is down the line here:
PCA down the line just before the pitchout
All of the above is why my eyes were not prepared for what happened next — an old school pitchout with the bases loaded and two down:
Nationals pitchout with the bases loaded
PItchouts are increasingly rare in today's game as you can see below:
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I'm shortcutting a lot of great analysis here, but Sam Miller on his substack discussed the demise of the pitchout in 2023 and estimated each team might throw a single pitchout a season. The bottom line is that sabermetrics made a really compelling case that they weren't worth wasting a pitch that could be a strike, which makes sense.
That said, even when pitchouts were much more common, I'm not sure I've ever seen a pitchout with the bases loaded because a team would only do it if you thought there were a reasonable shot at at getting a runner who was trying to steal. And with the bases loaded, the only runner who could be attempting to steal would be the guy on third. In this case, that would mean one of the fastest players in MLB taking a shot at stealing home with two outs despite the righty on the mound.
Then again, maybe the combination of Nico in the box and PCA at the plate makes this a different equation. After all, if you can get the out at third, you eliminate the risk of Nico making contact with the bases loaded, which he promptly did [VIDEO].
What say you, Cubs fans? When was the last time you saw a pitchout with the bases loaded or did that play make you do a double take as well? Was it just a good risk to take given Nico's much higher than likely ability to get a hit at the plate? Or was it something else all together?
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Either way, I can now definitively say I've seen a pitchout with the bases loaded. Pete Crow-Armstrong continues to be in the middle of the most unlikely things.
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