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Reuters
an hour ago
- Business
- Reuters
How does India benefit from early, ample monsoon rains?
MUMBAI, May 30 (Reuters) - India's weather office has forecast an above-average monsoon season for the second straight year in 2025, with the annual rains arriving at their earliest in 16 years. The rains have spread to nearly half the country ahead of schedule, after hitting the coast of the southernmost state of Kerala on Saturday, or eight days earlier than usual. The monsoon brings about 70% of the annual rains in a nearly $4-trillion economy, to which agriculture, employing more than half of a population of 1.4 billion, contributes about 16%. While the rains are vital for key crops such as rice, wheat, sugarcane, soybeans, and cotton, their influence affects the wider economy, fuelling overall growth while limiting food price inflation, and eventually, lending rates. Bigger harvests could also ease export curbs on sugar, and allow greater exports of staples such as rice and onions. Conversely, drought requires food imports and export curbs. Farmers earning more from larger crops tend to spend more on appliances and jewellery in the subsequent festival and wedding season, boosting consumption. Food makes up nearly half of India's consumer price index, closely watched by the central bank in deciding monetary policy. Rainfall above the average in 2024 helped rein in food prices, allowing the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut lending rates. This year's forecast of above-average monsoon rains will provide comfort to the RBI, which is likely to cut interest rates on June 6 for a third consecutive meeting and once more in August to speed growth. The early monsoons alleviated sweltering temperatures nationwide near the end of summer, when power utilities struggle to satisfy demand for more air-conditioning and irrigation of standing crops. The sharp drop in temperatures cut electricity consumption, briefly pushing down prices to near zero on power exchanges. Sales of cold drinks and ice creams also began tapering off nearly three weeks earlier than expected. The rain is replenishing reservoirs in southern and western India, allaying supply concerns at a time when water typically runs low. With the monsoon arriving nearly two weeks early in some areas, farmers will bring forward the sowing of crops such as paddy, cotton, soybean, and pulses. All crops will benefit from above-average rain, but more particularly thirsty ones such as rice and sugarcane. Crop yields depend not only on the volume of rainfall but also its spread during the four-month season. Excessive rainfall or prolonged dry spells could crimp yields.
The Hindu
an hour ago
- Business
- The Hindu
Thangam Thennarasu thanks Centre for instructing RBI to reconsider gold loan guidelines
Tamil Nadu Finance Minister Thangam Thennarasu on Friday (May 30, 2025) thanked the Union Finance Ministry for instructing the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to ensure its draft regulations on gold loans do not adversely impact small borrowers. In a post on X, Mr. Thennarasu said the draft gold loan guidelines were anti-poor, hurting small borrowers. Referring to Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin's letter to Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, urging her intervention to advise the RBI to reconsider the proposed restriction in the Reserve Bank of India (Lending Against Gold Collateral) Directions, 2025, Mr. Thennarasu said it is a major victory for people, as a result of the relentless efforts of Mr. Stalin.
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Business Standard
an hour ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Finance ministry seeks relaxation in RBI's new gold loan proposals
India's federal finance ministry has sought relaxations in the new rules on gold loans proposed by the central bank, according to a post on its official social media handle. The department of financial services under the finance ministry has asked the Reserve Bank of India to ensure that the needs of small gold loan borrowers are not "adversely impacted", a post on the ministry's verified handle on social media platform X said. In April this year, the RBI had proposed tighter rules for monitoring and disbursement of gold loans, often used by low-income borrowers. The tighter rules came after such loans surged nearly 30 per cent between September and February. In its post, the finance ministry said small ticket borrowers below Rs 200,000 ($2,344.05) should be excluded from the tighter rules to ensure "timely and speedy disbursement of loans". The ministry also proposed that the new rules not be implemented before January 1, 2026, to ensure the ground staff at lenders are adequately prepared. The central bank had sought comments on its proposed rules by the middle of May. The final rules are yet to be issued. On the day, Muthoot Finance rose 4.9 per cent and Manappuram Finance traded 0.5 per cent higher as of 10:34 a.m. IST. IIFL Finance was down 0.6 per cent.
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Business Standard
an hour ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Morgan Stanley sees Sensex at 89,000 by June 2026, upside potential of 8%
The Sensex last traded half a per cent higher at 81,642. A report by the foreign brokerage identified strong fundamentals for domestic equities. "Strong macro stability with improving terms of trade, declining primary deficit, and low-inflation volatility; 2) mid- to high-teens earnings growth annually over the next three to five years, led by an emerging private capex cycle, re-leveraging of corporate balance sheets, and a structural rise in discretionary consumption…,' said Morgan Stanley equity strategists Ridham Desai and Nayant Parekh said in a note. '…3) a reliable source of domestic risk capital; 4) a dovish RBI (Reserve Bank of India); 5) ranged oil prices; 6) two positives from the recent geopolitical event: (i) India has a new doctrine on terror which makes future terror attacks an act of war, a strong deterrent to future terror strikes, also making it easy for future governments to act decisively against terror, unlike the past and, (ii) upside surprise in military performance underscoring strong progress made in strategy, air combat, navigation.' Morgan Stanley cited "technical supportive" factors such as persistent buying by retail investors, low volatility and foreign portfolio investors' weakest positioning since 2000. In terms of portfolio strategy, Morgan Stanley prefers "domestic cyclicals" over *defensive and "external-facing" sectors. It is overweight financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials and underweight energy, materials, utilities and health care. The brokerage acknowledged key risks, saying: "a global recession or near recession would challenge our call. Long-term concerns include capacity constraints in the judiciary, AI's effects on the tech industry, low productivity in the farm sector, and state-level fiscal challenges.
News18
an hour ago
- Business
- News18
India's Economy Set For Strong FY26 Growth With Push In Global Economic Standing
Last Updated: India's economy in Purchasing Power Parity terms now stands at $15 trillion—more than half the size of the United States economy India's economy is poised for robust growth in the financial year 2025–26, with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projecting a real GDP expansion of 6.7 per cent. Backed by solid domestic demand, high capital expenditure, and improved agricultural prospects, the country continues to cement its position as one of the world's fastest-growing major economies. According to a report published in The Hindu Business Line, the RBI's quarterly GDP growth forecasts for FY26 stand at 6.7 per cent for Q1, 7.0 per cent for Q2, and 6.5 per cent each for Q3 and Q4. The central bank attributes this optimism to strong Rabi crop output, healthy reservoir levels, and a continuing recovery in manufacturing and services. The inflation outlook is also improving. CPI inflation is projected to average 4.8 per cent in FY25, with a further decline to 4.2 per cent anticipated in FY26. This moderation is expected due to easing food prices and effective monetary policy actions, helping maintain consumer purchasing power and support macroeconomic stability. A key contributor to this positive outlook is the rebound in household financial savings, which had declined in previous years. A Business Standard report notes that these savings have started to improve, reflecting increased disposable incomes and more prudent financial behaviour among Indian households. This resurgence in savings is likely to support consumption-led growth and provide a buffer against future economic shocks. On the global stage, India's economic footprint continues to grow. As highlighted by NITI Aayog Vice-Chairman Suman Bery, India's economy in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms now stands at $15 trillion—more than half the size of the United States economy. 'This is a remarkable indicator of the real economic weight India holds globally," Bery was quoted as saying. This confidence in India's growth trajectory was shared by Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran at the Confederation of Indian Industry's (CII) Annual Business Summit. Speaking to Mint, he emphasised that India's growth continues to be broad-based and supported by structural reforms and resilient macroeconomic fundamentals. Nageswaran advised Indian industry to be prepared to deal with a stronger currency in the coming years by becoming more competitive through productivity improvements. From rising household savings to growing global stature and strong FDI flows, India's economic momentum appears not only sustained but also accelerating. With supportive fiscal policies, robust agricultural performance, and growing investor interest, FY26 could mark another milestone in India's journey toward becoming a global economic powerhouse. Watch India Pakistan Breaking News on CNN News18. Stay updated with all the latest business news, including market trends, stock updates, tax, IPO, banking finance, real estate, savings and investments. Get in-depth analysis, expert opinions, and real-time updates—only on News18. Also Download the News18 App to stay updated! First Published:
