U.S. Declares 'END OF FUNDING' For Ukraine? Stunning Blow To Zelensky As Trump-Putin Set To Meet
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Mint
9 minutes ago
- Mint
Bulls ride high on India stocks, expecting success of US-Russia talks on Ukraine
Bulls appeared to be taking charge of the stock markets on Wednesday, ahead of the Trump-Putin talks, where a breakthrough or an impasse could significantly impact Indian equities. The two leaders are slated to meet in Alaska on Friday in a bid to end the over-three year Ukraine war. A day after foreign portfolio investors trimmed their index future longs to 7.95%, only 20 basis points shy of the record low of 7.75% on 22 March 2023, in light of the US Fed rate tightening cycle, bulls sold huge quantities of put options between the 24,500 and 24,600 levels, expecting a rally in the markets ahead of the talks. The contracts expire tomorrow. The Nifty 50 traded 0.6% higher at 24,634 at 1 pm. Amid likely domestic institutional investor buying in the cash market, bulls sold a massive number of puts at 24,600 – the open position at this strike rose by a whopping 227,758 contracts to a total 284,785 contracts. At 24,550, the open or outstanding positions jumped 148,077 contracts to 193,635 contracts and at 24,500 by 152,528 contracts to 260,034 contracts. The jump in open positions at these levels indicates that bulls expect the markets to close at or above 24,600, which will enable them to pocket the premium paid by the put buyers, who expect the markets to correct. "The correction premise (of put buyers) is based on the talks stalling and a continuation of the war, which could impact countries like India that buy Russian oil and have been slapped with a proposed punitive tariff of 25% from 27 August," explained SK Joshi, a consultant with Khambatta Securities. Other analysts cautioned that it was too early to take such calls because the Indian markets would react to the outcome of the talks only on Monday, with Friday a holiday for Independence Day. "The market is likely to consolidate in a 24,400-24,700 range ahead of the Russia-US talks in Alaska," said Sahaj Agrawal, head of derivatives research at Kotak Securities. "The reaction to the outcome will be on Monday." Options data and sentiment for now also suggest a sideways movement, with no major horizon shift on the cards, he added. The put-call ratio of the weekly options expiring on Thursday stood at 0.99 intraday, which means that for every 100 calls sold, traders had sold 99 puts. On Tuesday, the ratio stood at 0.65, or only 65 puts sold for 100 calls sold. Time correction The benchmark Nifty 50 has been in a time correction for 11 months now, which is longer than the nine-month time correction that followed the outbreak of the covid pandemic in 2020. Time correction implies an extended period of stagnant to marginally lower price movement. The Nifty has fallen 6.25% from a record high of 26,277.35 on 27 September last year to Wednesday's intraday level of 24,634. While the Nasdaq, the UK's FTSE and Japan's Nikkei trade at record highs, Indian stock indices haven't been able to reclaim their previous high even 11 months later. In the last major down-cycle, the Nifty fell 40% from a high of 12,430 on 20 January 2020 to 7,511.10 on 24 March that year when the pandemic surfaced. However, it reclaimed the high in nine months, closing at 12,632 by 9 November. The current time correction is due to tepid earnings growth and more lately because of Trump's crushing tariffs on India, which Moody's expects could trim its current fiscal growth estimate by 30 bps to 6%. "We have been in a time correction for nearly 11 months now and will have to see how the geopolitical events play out to reckon whether we will break through the 26,277.35 record high of last September or test the multi-month low of 21,743.65 of this April," Kotak Securities' Agrawal added.
Hindustan Times
9 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
Trump to host Zelensky, European leaders ahead of summit with Putin
Europe and Ukraine's leaders will speak to U.S. President Donald Trump at a virtual meeting on Wednesday ahead of his summit with Russia's Vladimir Putin, as they try to drive home the perils of selling out Kyiv's interests in pursuit of a ceasefire. Ukraine hopes the meeting will serve - at least partially - as a European counterweight to the summit in Alaska.(AFP File Photo) Trump hosts Putin, a pariah in the West since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, at talks in Alaska on Friday that the U.S. president has said will serve as a "feel-out" meeting in his efforts to end the Russo-Ukraine war. Trump agreed last week to the first U.S.-Russia summit since 2021, abruptly shifting course after weeks of voicing frustration with Putin for resisting the U.S. peace initiative. Trump said his envoy had made "great progress" at talks in Moscow. The U.S. president says both Kyiv and Moscow will have to cede land to end the war. Russian troops have already occupied almost a fifth of Ukraine. The unpredictability of how the summit will play out has fuelled European fears that the U.S. and Russian leaders could take far-reaching decisions and even seek to coerce Ukraine into an unfavourable deal. "We are focusing now to ensure that it does not happen - engaging with U.S. partners and staying coordinated and united on the European side. Still a lot of time until Friday," said one senior official from eastern Europe. Trump's administration tempered expectations on Tuesday for major progress toward a ceasefire, calling his meeting with Putin in Alaska a "listening exercise." The video conference among Trump, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the leaders of Germany, Finland, France, Britain, Italy, Poland and the European Union is expected to take place at 1300 GMT (1500 CET), a German government spokesperson said. NATO's secretary general will also attend the conference hosted by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Ukraine hopes the meeting will serve - at least partially - as a European counterweight to the summit in Alaska. European leaders, who are wary of provoking Trump's ire, have repeatedly emphasised that they welcome his peace efforts, while underlining that there should be no deal about Ukraine without Ukraine's participation. Half a dozen senior European officials told Reuters that they see a risk of a deal being struck that is unfavourable for Europe and Ukraine's security. They said European unity would be vital if that happened. A source familiar with internal U.S. deliberations said it could not be ruled out that Trump would seek a deal directly with Putin without involving Ukraine or Europe. But the source voiced doubt about that, saying it could cause problems with Kyiv and the EU. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Tuesday the summit will be a "listening exercise" for Trump to hear what it will take to get to a deal. After the call, Trump and Vice President JD Vance were expected to speak to European leaders at a separate online meeting at 1300 GMT (1500 CET), the German spokesperson said. That will be followed at 1430 GMT by an online meeting of the "coalition of the willing", a group of countries working on plans to support Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. Mounting battlefield pressure A Gallup poll released last week found that 69% of Ukrainians favour a negotiated end to the war as soon as possible. But polls also show Ukrainians do not want peace at any cost if that means crushing concessions. Ahead of the calls, Zelenskiy said it would be impossible for Kyiv to agree to a deal that would require it to withdraw its troops from the eastern Donbas region, a large swathe of which is already occupied by Russia. That, he told reporters on Tuesday, would deprive Ukraine of a vast defensive network in the region, easing the way for Russia to mount a new push deeper into Ukraine in the future. Territorial issues, he added, could only be discussed once a ceasefire has been put in place and Ukraine has received security guarantees. Moscow's troops have recently ramped up pressure on the battlefield, tightening their stranglehold on the cities of Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka in eastern Ukraine.
Hindustan Times
9 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
How Donald Trump's 50% US tariff bomb is pushing India closer to China
US President Donald Trump's threat of a 50 per cent tariff on Indian goods is pushing Prime Minister Narendra Modi closer to BRICS nations, including China. This marks a significant shift in bilateral ties between India and China that saw their lowest point in 2020 following the Galwan Valley clash. Chinese President Xi Jinping and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi. PM Narendra Modi's latest move is to resume direct flights with China as soon as next month, people familiar with the negotiations, who asked for anonymity to discuss private matters, told news agency Bloomberg. The deal could be formally announced when Modi is expected to head to China for the first time in seven years and meet President Xi Jinping at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation held in Tianjin from August 31, the report added. India had suspended direct flights during the Covid-19 pandemic, which coincided with the Galwan Valley clash in east Ladakh that killed 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese troops. Henry Wang, president of the Center for China and Globalization think tank in Beijing, told the news agency that ties between India and China are in an 'up cycle", and as leaders of the Global South, 'they have to really speak to each other". 'Trump's tariff war on India has made India realise that they have to maintain some kind of strategic autonomy and strategic independence,' he added. Washington DC has long courted New Delhi as a counterbalance to Beijing in geopolitics but with Donld Trump's trade wars, China and India are finding common ground. Xu Feihong, China's ambassador to India, has offered Modi moral support over the tariffs. 'Give the bully an inch, he will take a mile,' Xu last week wrote on X over a quote from Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi denouncing the use of tariffs 'as a weapon to suppress other countries.' --With assistance from Dan Strumpf, Sudhi Ranjan Sen, Mihir Mishra, Anthony Palazzo and Colum Murphy. Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton has warned that Donald Trump's tariff measures against India, intended to hurt Russia, could end up having the opposite effect by pushing New Delhi closer to Moscow and Beijing. "Trump's tariffs against India are intended to hurt Russia but they could push India closer to Russia and to China to oppose these tariffs," John Bolton told CNN in an interview. The former NSA further cautioned, 'Trump's leniency on the Chinese, and heavy-handed tariffs on India, jeopardise decades of American efforts to bring India away from Russia and China.' Trump's 50% tariff on India Modi's economic calculus was fundamentally altered this month when Trump doubled tariffs on Indian goods to 50 per cent as a penalty for its purchases of Russian oil. Donald Trump's remarks that India's economy was 'dead' and its tariff barriers 'obnoxious' further strained relations. China shows thaw signs China, also a prime target in Trump's trade wars, has shown signs it's ready for a thaw. This month, it eased curbs on urea shipments to India — the world's largest importer of the fertilizer. Although initial volumes are small, the trade could expand, easing global shortages and prices. China relaxed the ban in June but had maintained restrictions on India until now. Adani Group's investments The Adani Group is reportedly in talks with Chinese electric vehicle major BYD Co. for a potential partnership that could enable billionaire Gautam Adani's conglomerate to produce batteries in India, further expanding its clean energy footprint. (With inputs from agencies)
