National Hurricane Center Is Watching An Area That Could Become Tropical Storm Alvin In The Eastern Pacific
The western hemisphere could have its first tropical storm of 2025 this week off the southwestern coast of Mexico, roughly two weeks after the beginning of hurricane season for the Eastern Pacific Basin.
What we're watching: The National Hurricane Center is watching a region south of Mexico in the Eastern Pacific that has a high chance of tropical development within the next seven days.
(192-hours: Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)
A broad trough of low pressure is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, but conditions are in place to support gradual development this week.
The odds that the region will undergo tropical formation within the next 48 hours are increasing, and a tropical depression is likely to form midweek.
If the interest area becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Tropical Storm Alvin.
(MORE: When Could The Atlantic Hurricane Season's First Storm Form?)
Is this a threat? The disturbance is several hundred miles south of the Mexican Pacific Coast, and it is slowly moving west-northwestward.
Forecast guidance suggests if a tropical depression or storm does form, it could slowly move toward the northwest.
This could cause high surf, rip currents and showers along Mexico's Pacific Coast.
The season is beginning: As senior meteorologist Chris Dolce wrote about earlier this month, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially begins on May 15, two weeks earlier than the Atlantic hurricane season.
The season's first tropical storm will be named Alvin.
While many Eastern Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes move west-northwest and eventually fizzle in the open ocean, some do strike land, as we saw in 2023 with the remnant of Hurricane Hilary in the Desert Southwest and with Category 5 Hurricane Otis in Acapulco, Mexico.
Sara Tonks is a content meteorologist with weather.com and has a bachelor's and a master's degree from Georgia Tech in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences along with a master's degree from Unity Environmental University in Marine Science.
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