These four elections are about to test Trump's impact on climate

Independent

12-02-2025

If the fact that we've just experienced the hottest January in history wasn't terrifying enough, Donald Trump and his minions in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have spent the past two weeks (and then some) wreaking havoc on climate policy.
As well as vowing to 'drill, baby, drill' and tap into America's 'liquid gold' oil reserves, the president pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement and has signed various executive orders that will effectively undo the progress that has been made in the past four years under Joe Biden.
Just last week, reports also said that Elon Musk visited the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) offices in Washington DC, sparking fears that the Trump administration will be making severe cuts to the country's foremost weather authority – in terms of both staffing and funding.
But the critical question now is: how far will the shockwaves created by Trump and his team be felt?
This year, there are four key elections taking place in Germany, Canada, Australia and Chile – the outcomes of which could either create a much-needed buffer against the rising right-wing tide and anti-climate science sentiment or may amplify the damage that Trump's as-yet unmitigated chaos presents.
The first, and perhaps most critical, will be Germany's election next week. Under Angela Merkel's leadership, the country cemented itself as a global leader in the renewable energy transition and a key diplomatic force of the European Green New Deal and Paris Agreement. Its greenhouse gas emissions have decreased 48 per cent since 1990 and Germany's existing leadership was still aiming to achieve climate neutrality by 2045. It has also been one of the largest donors to international climate finance, and is trying even now to pick up the slack after US funding cuts.
That said, the Conservatives have regularly criticised the sitting government's energy policies, and Friedrich Merz, the man tipped to be Germany's next leader, has vowed to put the economy ahead of climate considerations. Combined with the potential threat of a coalition led by the Musk-backed, ultra-right wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party – which refuses to believe the climate crisis and wants to withdraw from the Paris Accord, like Trump – it could spell disaster.
In Australia, where I am based, Trump's reach is unmistakable. As well as lauding the 'outstanding leader' in the New York Times ahead of his inauguration, Gina Reinhart – Australia's biggest mining billionaire – and wealthy businessman Anthony Pratt have been celebrating Trump's leadership and calling for a similar approach here.
The leader of the opposition, Peter Dutton, has also been lapping it up – last week describing Trump as a 'big thinker' in reference to his barbaric 'Middle Eastern riviera' proposal. Of course, seeing as Reinhart is also the biggest donor to right-wing think tanks and regularly lends her private jet to her 'dear friend' Dutton, it should come as no surprise.
What is striking, however, is the effect it's having on the electorate. Currently, the polls are neck-and-neck for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Dutton, and with the May election fast approaching, there is little time to waste.
If Dutton is successful, Australia could well return to the 'lost decade' of climate denialism and undo all the changes the Labor government has enacted since 2022, as his party has vowed to scrap all the 2030 targets that were made, and to be the 'best friend that the mining and resources sector will ever have.'
Then will come Canada in October. Following Justin Trudeau's recent resignation, many have written off the Liberal Party – but candidates Chrystia Freeland and Mark Carney may just have a shot later in the year, which is positive news for climate policy, as both have proposed a reform of the existing carbon tax, a fee levied on polluters for greenhouse gas emissions. They will, however, be up against an unapologetically populist campaign to 'axe the tax' from Poilievre.
Although the date of the Chile election has yet to be announced, the incumbent president, 39-year-old Gabriel Boric, will not be able to run again and his left-wing coalition is struggling to maintain support, if the polls are anything to go by. This opens things up for a right-wing challenger – though a clear frontrunner there is not.
It could come in the form of either the far-right Johannes Kaiser or conservative Evelyn Matthei – both of which pose a varying threat to the country's Net Zero commitments. Still, both candidates will look to focus on extractivist growth and undermine the country's nationalised lithium mining industry.
It's also worth noting that a win for either candidate would push Chile far closer to Argentina's far-right leader Javier Milei, who is one of Trump's most loyal international allies, and has already received praise from both Matthei and Kaiser.
Together, these four countries have played a critical role in shaping the international climate consensus over the last four years, and are crucial to ensuring ongoing global progress.
However, they all now stand on the precipice of a pivotal shift towards the right – that could undermine not only renewable transitions, but amplify Trump's anti-climate agenda around the world.