
Musk's AI Tool Implicates DOGE Data Cuts In Texas Flood Deaths
Earlier last year I published a warning about Trump administration data-related deletions that would restrict access to or manipulate publicly available information critical to citizen health and safety. While certain historical government data has been preserved by various organizations, some important real-time information is now in short supply.
And in a tragically ironic twist, Elon Musk's own generative AI tool, Grok 3, implicates the Trump/DOGE cuts to the US National Weather Service and NOAA in contributing to the dozens of Texas flood deaths on July 4:
"The cuts to the National Weather Service (NWS) by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under the Trump administration significantly impaired the agency's ability to provide accurate and timely forecasts, which likely contributed to the severity of the Texas flood disaster on July 4, 2025. Here's how these cuts played a role:
Staffing Reductions: The NWS lost approximately 560–600 employees in early 2025 due to DOGE-initiated cuts, reducing its workforce by nearly 20%. Key positions, such as the warning coordination meteorologist at the Austin/San Antonio office and the meteorologist-in-charge at the San Angelo office, were vacant due to early retirement incentives. These roles are critical for coordinating with local emergency managers to ensure effective warning dissemination and response planning. The absence of these personnel likely hindered communication and coordination with local officials and camps like Camp Mystic, delaying critical evacuation efforts.
Degraded Forecasting Capabilities: The cuts led to "degraded" forecasting services, as noted in an internal NWS document from April 2025. The NWS forecast for the Texas Hill Country predicted 3–6 inches of rain in the Concho Valley and 4–8 inches in the Hill Country, significantly underestimating the actual 10–15 inches that fell. Experts warned that staff shortages and reduced resources, including the cessation of some weather balloon launches critical for collecting atmospheric data, compromised forecast accuracy. This underestimation meant that local officials and camp organizers did not anticipate the catastrophic scale of the flooding, which saw the Guadalupe River rise over 20 feet in less than two hours.
Warning Dissemination Issues: Although the NWS issued timely flood watches and warnings, including a flash flood emergency at 1:14 a.m. on July 4, the lack of key staff and a robust local warning system in Kerr County delayed public notifications. For example, the Kerrville Police Department's first public warning on Facebook came at 6:16 a.m., hours after the NWS alert and when the river was already rising rapidly. The absence of a warning coordination meteorologist likely exacerbated this gap, as this role facilitates direct communication with local emergency services.
Systemic Vulnerabilities: The cuts were part of a broader reduction in NOAA's budget and operations, including the elimination of weather research labs and climate research programs, which further weakened the NWS's ability to predict extreme weather events. Posts on X and expert analyses highlighted concerns that these cuts, driven by DOGE's cost-saving measures, prioritized budget reductions over public safety, with warnings as early as February 2025 that such actions could lead to deadly consequences.
Conclusion: The consensus among critics, including Texas officials and experts, is that the understaffing and reduced resources likely contributed to the forecast's underestimation of rainfall and the delayed local response. This was particularly critical in a region known for flash flooding, where timely and accurate warnings could have prompted earlier evacuations at Camp Mystic and other vulnerable areas, potentially reducing the death toll of at least 43, including 15 children. The staffing shortages and reduced forecasting capabilities likely amplified the challenges of preparing for and responding to the disaster, contributing to the tragic outcome." Data Is Everybody's Business
This is a cautionary tale for business leaders as well, not just individuals. Executives should be keenly aware of how the disappearance of public or other data sources could affect their organization's own health and survival. For many types of valuable information, alternative sources exist among the dozens of social media platforms, hundreds of private organizations, and thousands of syndicated data providers. Unfortunately, most organizations have entire departments dedicated to procuring office supplies, sourcing raw materials, and hiring individuals—but not a single person dedicated to identifying and curating external data sources.

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Forbes
18 minutes ago
- Forbes
Blame Cast After Texas Floods: Were Warnings Too Late Or Too Weak?
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Monday fired back at suggestions that staffing shortages at the National Weather Service or problems with emergency alert systems impacted the response to the deadly Texas floods over the July 4 holiday weekend—but Texas state officials and others have questioned their effectiveness after the disaster. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said blaming the Trump administration's cuts for ... More exacerbating the disaster was a 'despicable lie.' Getty Images One high-profile public official in Texas placed early blame on the early NWS forecasts for failing to predict the severity of the storm—'listen, everybody got the forecast from the National Weather Service,' Texas Division of Emergency Management chief W. Nim Kidd said at a press conference Friday, noting 'it did not predict the amount of rain that we saw.' A New York Times report published Saturday then detailed staffing shortages at the NWS offices in San Antonio and San Angelo, but representatives for the NWS employees union told CNN the offices had 'adequate staffing and resources.' The San Antonio office was missing a warning coordination meteorologist, a role that works with officials to send emergency alerts, after the office's 32-year veteran meteorologist took an early retirement offer earlier this year as part of the Trump administration's move to downsize the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, local station KXAN reported. The National Weather Service, however, issued alerts of increasing severity ahead of the flash flood, which included an overnight text alert warning of a "dangerous and life-threatening situation." Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem praised the NWS, but said President Donald Trump wanted to improve the NWS' warning system, telling reporters at a press conference 'we needed to renew this ancient system that has been left in place with the federal government for many, many years.' When asked on Sunday, President Donald Trump called the situation the 'Biden setup,' but stopped short of directly blaming his predecessor for the destructive floods: 'I wouldn't blame Biden for it, either, I would just say this is a 100-year catastrophe." 'Flash Flood Warnings were issued on the night of July 3 and in the early morning of July 4, giving preliminary lead times of more than three hours,' NWS said in a statement to multiple outlets. When Did The First Warnings Go Out? The Texas Division of Emergency Management activated their emergency response resources as early as Wednesday in anticipation of heavy rainfall and potential flash floods. The NWS issued the region's first flood watch on Thursday afternoon, around 1:18 p.m. CDT, then issued a flood warning that evening at 11:42 p.m. CDT. The NWS in San Antonio also sent a text alert to cell phones in the area, warning of a "dangerous and life-threatening situation" around 1:14 a.m. CDT, Reuters reported. The NWS' Weather Prediction Center noted in a 12:26 a.m. CDT discussion that flash flooding was 'likely' over central Texas, with 'significant impacts possible,' predicting up to six inches of rain in the region. Some municipalities in the area ended up recording over 20 inches of rainfall over the course of the holiday weekend, according to data compiled by the NWS. The Guadalupe River rose over 20 feet in just three hours on July 4, according to data from NOAA. In the immediate aftermath of the July 4 floods, state officials said they were caught off guard by the severity of the storm, despite the warnings. 'Rest assured, no one knew this kind of flood was coming,' Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly said at a press briefing Friday. 'We have floods all the time. This is the most dangerous river valley in the United States and we deal with floods on a regular basis. When it rains, we get water. We had no reason to believe that this was going to be anything like what's happened here. None whatsoever.' Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said the warnings may not have communicated the acute danger the storm posed for Kerrville, which was severely impacted by the flooding. 'There were alerts or warnings about heavy rain, potential for flash flooding in certain areas,' Abbott said at a press conference Sunday. 'The problem with that is that to most people in the area, flash flooding would mean one thing—not what it turned out to be. Because they deal with flash floods all the time, just like I put people on notice in these regions of Texas right now. There's the potential for flash flooding, but there's no expectation of a water wall of almost 30 feet high.' How Has The Trump Administration Responded? Speaking at a briefing Monday afternoon, Leavitt lashed over claims staffing shortages or policy decisions from the Trump administration contributed to the disaster. 'Unfortunately, in the wake of this once in a generation natural disaster, we have seen many falsehoods pushed by Democrats such as Senator Chuck Schumer and some members of the media. Blaming President Trump for these floods is a depraved lie, and it serves no purpose during this time of national mourning,' Leavitt said, praising the NWS' response and disputing reports that they were impacted by staffing shortages. 'The National Weather Service office in New Braunfels, which delivers the forecasts for Austin, San Antonio, and the surrounding area had extra staff on duty during the storm, despite claims of the contrary.' What To Watch For Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., wrote a letter (first published by Politico) to the Commerce Department's acting inspector general, urging him to open an investigation into whether staffing shortages at the NWS offices in San Antonio and San Angelo contributed to 'delays, gaps, or diminished accuracy' in forecasts or weakened weather alerts. Rep. Joaquin Castro, D-Texas, also called for an investigation.. 'I don't think it's helpful to have missing key personnel from the National Weather Service not in place to help prevent these tragedies,' he said during an interview with CNN's Dana Bash on Sunday, though he didn't directly blame the tragedy on staffing. 'I don't want to sit here and say conclusively that that was the case, but I do think that it should be investigated.'


Washington Post
19 minutes ago
- Washington Post
Authorities will wait to address questions about Texas floods, as search for the dead goes on
KERRVILLE, Texas — Authorities overseeing the search for flood victims in Texas said Monday that they will wait to address questions about weather warnings and why some summer camps did not evacuate ahead of the catastrophic flooding that killed more than 90 people over the July Fourth weekend. The officials spoke only hours after the operators of Camp Mystic, a century-old all-girls Christian summer camp in the Texas Hill Country, announced that they lost 27 campers and counselors to the floodwaters. Meanwhile, search-and-rescue teams carried on with the search for the dead, using heavy equipment to untangle trees and wading into swollen rivers. Volunteers covered in mud sorted through chunks of debris, piece by piece, in an increasingly bleak task.
Yahoo
21 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump signs disaster declaration for Texas floods
President Trump said Sunday he has signed a disaster declaration for the recent deadly flooding in Texas. 'I just signed a Major Disaster Declaration for Kerr County, Texas, to ensure that our Brave First Responders immediately have the resources they need,' Trump said in a Truth Social post Sunday morning. 'These families are enduring an unimaginable tragedy, with many lives lost, and many still missing. The Trump Administration continues to work closely with State and Local Leaders.' 'Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem was on the ground yesterday with Governor Greg Abbott, who is working hard to help the people of his Great State,' the president added. 'Our incredible U.S. Coast Guard, together with State First Responders, have saved more than 850 lives. GOD BLESS THE FAMILIES, AND GOD BLESS TEXAS!' According to The Associated Press, at least 67 people have died due to the flooding. A significant portion of central Texas is facing a Flood Watch, Flash Flood Warning or Flood Warning, according to the National Weather Service. Fifty-nine people have died due to the flooding in Kerr County, Texas, the county's sheriff said Sunday, according to an update on the county website. Thirty-eight of those killed were adults and 21 were children, the sheriff also said. In a post to the social platform X Sunday, Abbott thanked Trump in response to his earlier Truth Social post. 'Thank you, @realDonaldTrump, for your dedication to Texas. Collaboration between our state, local, and federal partners is critical to our state's recovery,' Abbott said in his post. 'Thank you to our brave first responders working around the clock to find missing Texans,' he added. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.