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Musk's AI Tool Implicates DOGE Data Cuts In Texas Flood Deaths

Musk's AI Tool Implicates DOGE Data Cuts In Texas Flood Deaths

Forbes6 days ago
KERRVILLE, TEXAS - JULY 04: Kerrville resident Leighton Sterling watches flood waters along the ... More Guadalupe River on July 4, 2025 in Kerrville, Texas. Heavy rainfall caused flooding along the Guadalupe River in central Texas with multiple fatalities reported. (Photo by) Getty Images
Earlier last year I published a warning about Trump administration data-related deletions that would restrict access to or manipulate publicly available information critical to citizen health and safety. While certain historical government data has been preserved by various organizations, some important real-time information is now in short supply.
And in a tragically ironic twist, Elon Musk's own generative AI tool, Grok 3, implicates the Trump/DOGE cuts to the US National Weather Service and NOAA in contributing to the dozens of Texas flood deaths on July 4:
"The cuts to the National Weather Service (NWS) by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under the Trump administration significantly impaired the agency's ability to provide accurate and timely forecasts, which likely contributed to the severity of the Texas flood disaster on July 4, 2025. Here's how these cuts played a role:
Staffing Reductions: The NWS lost approximately 560–600 employees in early 2025 due to DOGE-initiated cuts, reducing its workforce by nearly 20%. Key positions, such as the warning coordination meteorologist at the Austin/San Antonio office and the meteorologist-in-charge at the San Angelo office, were vacant due to early retirement incentives. These roles are critical for coordinating with local emergency managers to ensure effective warning dissemination and response planning. The absence of these personnel likely hindered communication and coordination with local officials and camps like Camp Mystic, delaying critical evacuation efforts.
Degraded Forecasting Capabilities: The cuts led to "degraded" forecasting services, as noted in an internal NWS document from April 2025. The NWS forecast for the Texas Hill Country predicted 3–6 inches of rain in the Concho Valley and 4–8 inches in the Hill Country, significantly underestimating the actual 10–15 inches that fell. Experts warned that staff shortages and reduced resources, including the cessation of some weather balloon launches critical for collecting atmospheric data, compromised forecast accuracy. This underestimation meant that local officials and camp organizers did not anticipate the catastrophic scale of the flooding, which saw the Guadalupe River rise over 20 feet in less than two hours.
Warning Dissemination Issues: Although the NWS issued timely flood watches and warnings, including a flash flood emergency at 1:14 a.m. on July 4, the lack of key staff and a robust local warning system in Kerr County delayed public notifications. For example, the Kerrville Police Department's first public warning on Facebook came at 6:16 a.m., hours after the NWS alert and when the river was already rising rapidly. The absence of a warning coordination meteorologist likely exacerbated this gap, as this role facilitates direct communication with local emergency services.
Systemic Vulnerabilities: The cuts were part of a broader reduction in NOAA's budget and operations, including the elimination of weather research labs and climate research programs, which further weakened the NWS's ability to predict extreme weather events. Posts on X and expert analyses highlighted concerns that these cuts, driven by DOGE's cost-saving measures, prioritized budget reductions over public safety, with warnings as early as February 2025 that such actions could lead to deadly consequences.
Conclusion: The consensus among critics, including Texas officials and experts, is that the understaffing and reduced resources likely contributed to the forecast's underestimation of rainfall and the delayed local response. This was particularly critical in a region known for flash flooding, where timely and accurate warnings could have prompted earlier evacuations at Camp Mystic and other vulnerable areas, potentially reducing the death toll of at least 43, including 15 children. The staffing shortages and reduced forecasting capabilities likely amplified the challenges of preparing for and responding to the disaster, contributing to the tragic outcome." Data Is Everybody's Business
This is a cautionary tale for business leaders as well, not just individuals. Executives should be keenly aware of how the disappearance of public or other data sources could affect their organization's own health and survival. For many types of valuable information, alternative sources exist among the dozens of social media platforms, hundreds of private organizations, and thousands of syndicated data providers. Unfortunately, most organizations have entire departments dedicated to procuring office supplies, sourcing raw materials, and hiring individuals—but not a single person dedicated to identifying and curating external data sources.
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Trump voices shock at devastating scale of Texas flood damage
Trump voices shock at devastating scale of Texas flood damage

Yahoo

time44 minutes ago

  • Yahoo

Trump voices shock at devastating scale of Texas flood damage

US President Donald Trump spoke Friday of seeing devastation like he'd never before experienced as he toured parts of Texas hit by devastating flash floods that have left at least 120 people dead, including dozens of children. The Republican leader and First Lady Melania Trump were in the Hill Country of central Texas to meet first responders, victims' families and local officials, a week after a rain-swollen river swept away houses, camp cabins, cars and people. "This is a tough one. I've never seen anything like this," Trump said at a roundtable meeting in Kerrville, in the worst-affected Kerr County. "I've gone to a lot of hurricanes, a lot of tornadoes. I've never seen anything like this. This is a bad one." Trump lashed out at reporters for questioning authorities' response to the disaster and said he wanted to focus on solidarity with emergency workers and volunteers. "All across the country, Americans' hearts are shattered," said Trump, speaking at a table draped in a black banner with the message "Texas Strong." "I had to be here as president. The first lady wanted to be here." He compared the suddenly rising floodwaters to a "giant wave in the Pacific Ocean that the best surfers in the world would be afraid to surf." Earlier, the Trumps were met by Governor Greg Abbott near the Guadalupe River in Kerrville, in an area with numerous downed trees and an overturned tractor trailer. They were briefed by Texas Emergency Management and Kerrville Fire Dept officials, and greeted by 30 or so rescue workers and Coast Guard members. The search for more than 170 missing people, including five girls who were at summer camp, was in its eighth day as rescue teams combed through mounds of debris and mud. But with no live rescues reported this week, worries have swelled that the death toll could still rise. Trump has brushed off questions about the impact of his cuts to federal agencies on the response to the flood, which he described as a "100-year catastrophe" that "nobody expected." On Thursday, Homeland Security chief Kristi Noem, who was with Trump in Texas, defended the immediate response as "swift and efficient." But Texas officials have faced questions about why emergency evacuation messages to residents and visitors along the flooding Guadalupe River reportedly were delayed, in some cases by hours. Trump expressed support for a flood warning system in a telephone interview with NBC News on Thursday. - FEMA questions - The floods, among America's deadliest in recent years, have reopened questions about Trump's plans to phase out federal disaster response agency FEMA in lieu of greater state-based responsibility. FEMA began its response to the Texas flash floods over the weekend after Trump signed a major disaster declaration to release federal resources. But the president has so far avoided addressing questions about its future. Noem insisted FEMA should be "eliminated" in its current form at a government review meeting Wednesday. Officials in Kerr County, which sits astride the Guadalupe River in an area nicknamed "Flash Flood Alley," said at least 36 children were killed in the disaster at the start of the Fourth of July holiday weekend. Details have surfaced about reported delays to early alerts at a local level that could have saved lives. Experts say forecasters did their best and sent out timely and accurate warnings despite a sudden weather change. ABC News reported Thursday that at 4:22 am on July 4, a firefighter in Ingram, upstream of Kerrville, had asked the Kerr County Sheriff's Office to alert residents of nearby Hunt to the coming flood. The network said its affiliate KSAT obtained audio of the call, and that the first alert did not reach Kerr County's CodeRED system for a full 90 minutes. In some cases, it said, the warning messages didn't arrive until after 10:00 am, when hundreds of people had already been swept away. The flooding of the Guadalupe River was particularly devastating for summer camps on its banks, including Camp Mystic, where 27 girls and counselors died. dk-ft/acb

As Kerr County leaders avoid alert questions, new audio surfaces in CodeRED timeline
As Kerr County leaders avoid alert questions, new audio surfaces in CodeRED timeline

Yahoo

time2 hours ago

  • Yahoo

As Kerr County leaders avoid alert questions, new audio surfaces in CodeRED timeline

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Online, the county encourages residents to sign up for the free service, which 'has the ability to notify the entire county or only the affected areas' about emergency situations – including severe weather – 'in a matter of minutes.' In the recording obtained by KXAN investigators from a credible source, the dispatcher then tells the firefighter: 'We have to get that approved with our supervisor. Just be advised we do have the Texas water rescue en route.' The timing of that request came more than three hours after the National Weather Service issued a flash flood warning – at 1:14 a.m. – for a portion of the county and around 20 minutes after the federal forecasting agency warned of a flash flood emergency – at 4:03 a.m. – in the area. Sheriff hints at 'after action' review, as records reveal warning of 'worst-case flood event' It is still unclear at what time CodeRED alerts went out, as local officials have largely sidestepped related questions. 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KXAN is awaiting a response and fulfillment of records requests we made to the county and other local officials to better understand decisions regarding the notifications during this flood. On Tuesday, Leitha told reporters: 'It's not that easy, and you just push a button. OK? There's a lot more to that.' When asked if that happened, he responded: 'I can't tell you at this time.' Critics point to challenges with CodeRED using publicly available phone numbers and voluntary registration to send texts, voicemails and emails – meaning warnings may not reach all residents or visitors in a disaster area. However, the company behind CodeRED has explained it can also utilize IPAWS, the Integrated Public Alert & Warning System funded by FEMA – which alerts all phones in a geographical area, regardless of enrolling in the system. According to FEMA, 135 Texas agencies or entities use IPAWS, including Kerr County and the City of Kerrville. 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Since last week's flood, officials have fielded questions regarding the effectiveness of CodeRED alerts in the county's rural areas where cell service can be spotty. Officials have also said many of the children at camps along the Guadalupe River did not have phones with them. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Wildlife rescue shelter takes in over 200 animals following Independence Day floods
Wildlife rescue shelter takes in over 200 animals following Independence Day floods

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  • Yahoo

Wildlife rescue shelter takes in over 200 animals following Independence Day floods

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