Drewry WCI falls for fifth week, downtrend may persist
This continued decline follows a period of volatility triggered by higher US tariffs announced in April. The market reaction was delayed by about a month, with rates beginning to rise in May and peaking in the first week of June. However, the trend has since reversed, with rates consistently falling since mid-June, indicating that the initial impact of the tariffs was short-lived.
Drewry WCI fell for the 5th straight week, dropping 2.61 per cent to $2,602 per FEU on July 17. Rates have declined since mid-June, reversing gains from earlier tariff-driven hikes. Transpacific spot rates slipped further, though remain above early May levels. Drewry forecasts continued rate declines in H2 2025, citing weak demand and uncertainty over future US tariffs and penalties on Chinese vessels.
Transpacific spot rates fell this week, with rates on the Shanghai–Los Angeles route down 4 per cent to $2,817 per FEU, and Shanghai–New York down 6 per cent to $4,539 per FEU. Despite the recent decline, both lanes remain above their levels from 10 weeks ago, when tariff concerns first began to drive rates higher. Spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles are still 4 per cent higher, while rates to New York are 24 per cent higher than on May 8. Drewry expects rates on these trade lanes to continue declining due to weak demand. Rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam dipped 1 per cent to $3,334 per 40-foot container, while Shanghai to Genoa fell 1 per cent to $3,450 per 40-foot container.
Conversely, freight rates increased on several backhaul routes: Rotterdam to Shanghai rose 2 per cent to $495, New York to Rotterdam edged up 1 per cent to $876, and Rotterdam to New York increased by 1 per cent to $2,001 per 40-foot container.
Drewry's Container Forecaster expects the supply-demand balance to weaken again in the second half of 2025, which will lead to further declines in spot rates. The volatility and timing of rate movements will largely depend on President Trump's future tariff decisions and potential capacity shifts related to US penalties on Chinese ships, which remain uncertain.
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