ASX to rise as Wall St rebounds; RBA cut in focus
The ASX is set to lift as investors look to an expected rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia and Wall Street rebounded after a shock US credit downgrade.
A renewed wave of dip buying pushed US markets into positive territory but the dollar remained lower.
The S&P 500 wiped out a slide that earlier topped 1%. Several strategists said any pullback could be an opportunity to wade back into the market amid bullish momentum boosted last week by the US-China tariff truce, with some big banks watering down their recession calls.
Bonds also came well off session lows, following a slide that briefly put 30-year yields above 5%.
Market highlights
ASX futures are pointing up 58 points or 0.7 per cent to 8369.
All US prices are as of 1.30pm New York time.
Today's agenda
The main focus for markets today is the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision. Most economists expect the central bank to cut rates for the second time this year. The current expectation is a 0.25 percentage point cut, which would take the cash rate below 4 per cent for the first time since 2023.
Top stories
Policy demands could lead to Libs-Nats split | The Nationals are demanding the Liberals stay committed to their key policies as a condition of staying in the Coalition.
| The two presidents spoke on the phone with the threat that the United States would walk away from its commitment to the war.
MinRes' new chair to pocket $8.34m if he turns miner around | The Mineral Resources board has lured Malcolm Bundey, a packaging sector veteran, to become its chair with a bumper package of share options.
| The prime minister was in Rome for the Pope's inauguration mass and the two leaders spoke about their shared concern for global conflict.
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Sydney Morning Herald
35 minutes ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
Give Trump ‘a new Pine Gap', say experts claiming AUKUS go-slow
AUKUS was announced in 2021, but the government has not picked a nuclear waste site or an east coast submarine base, and there are concerns about the speed of planning for a shipyard in Henderson, Western Australia. Australia made the first of six $US500 million ($770 million) payments to boost the capacity of the US submarine industry earlier this year as part of the $368 billion deal, and has hosted visiting American vessels. The US informed Australia about a 30-day review of the pact weeks ago, which became public on Thursday. Defence Minister Richard Marles said he welcomed the review. 'It's something which is perfectly natural for an incoming administration to do,' he said on the ABC. Senior Australian government sources, not permitted to speak publicly, said the US stood to gain from AUKUS and believed the review might be designed to gain leverage as Washington pushed Australia to spend more on defence. Former US ambassador Joe Hockey said bases should be expanded into locations at which the US could perform large volumes of submarine maintenance to help the US overturn a backlog crippling its ability to keep subs in operation. 'It would be enormously important to the Americans and allow for a significant increase in their capability and deterrence value in the region,' Hockey told this masthead. 'Australia is lagging behind.' The man central to the US' AUKUS review, defence official Elbridge Colby, has previously expressed reservations about handing over nuclear submarines in the early 2030s at the same time as a potential confrontation between China and Taiwan may demand all the US' firepower. Colby has this year made more positive remarks about AUKUS' first pillar. The review was instituted by Colby, not the White House. But Colby's focus on war-readiness in the case of a conflict with China – which is far from guaranteed, and may not draw in Australia – has spurred calls to make the AUKUS deal more useful for its short-term focus on China. Pezzullo, who helmed the 2009 defence white paper, said the Henderson base should be transformed into a joint facility. 'Better still, Australia could establish this shipyard, by treaty, as a joint Australian-US facility, in recognition of its vital role in the alliance, which could be at least as significant as the contribution of the Pine Gap satellite ground station,' he wrote in an article for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute think tank last month. In 2023, the Albanese government dismissed Pezzullo for exerting undue political influence under the previous Coalition government. 'Being able to operate routinely in the Indian Ocean without having to transit the congested littoral waters of Southeast Asia and in the Western Pacific in times of tension and conflict is of immense strategic value to the US,' Pezzullo wrote. Such a move would likely be contentious and trigger concerns, particularly on the left, about Australian sovereignty and hewing more closely to the US at a time when Western allies and citizens are growing more doubtful about US President Donald Trump's reliability. Loading But Shoebridge said Australia was already deeply enmeshed in US military architecture via Pine Gap, a critical intelligence facility near Alice Springs, and the presence of US Marines in Darwin, approved by former prime minister Julia Gillard. 'I think it would be getting to a level with Pine Gap,' Shoebridge said, backing the idea of a bigger plan for Henderson and criticising Labor for the speed of decision-making and funding on AUKUS milestones. 'If we're not doing those long lead-time items, how can we still tell the Americans we are serious about AUKUS?'
The Age
36 minutes ago
- The Age
Give Trump ‘a new Pine Gap', say experts claiming AUKUS go-slow
AUKUS was announced in 2021, but the government has not picked a nuclear waste site or an east coast submarine base, and there are concerns about the speed of planning for a shipyard in Henderson, Western Australia. Australia made the first of six $US500 million ($770 million) payments to boost the capacity of the US submarine industry earlier this year as part of the $368 billion deal, and has hosted visiting American vessels. The US informed Australia about a 30-day review of the pact weeks ago, which became public on Thursday. Defence Minister Richard Marles said he welcomed the review. 'It's something which is perfectly natural for an incoming administration to do,' he said on the ABC. Senior Australian government sources, not permitted to speak publicly, said the US stood to gain from AUKUS and believed the review might be designed to gain leverage as Washington pushed Australia to spend more on defence. Former US ambassador Joe Hockey said bases should be expanded into locations at which the US could perform large volumes of submarine maintenance to help the US overturn a backlog crippling its ability to keep subs in operation. 'It would be enormously important to the Americans and allow for a significant increase in their capability and deterrence value in the region,' Hockey told this masthead. 'Australia is lagging behind.' The man central to the US' AUKUS review, defence official Elbridge Colby, has previously expressed reservations about handing over nuclear submarines in the early 2030s at the same time as a potential confrontation between China and Taiwan may demand all the US' firepower. Colby has this year made more positive remarks about AUKUS' first pillar. The review was instituted by Colby, not the White House. But Colby's focus on war-readiness in the case of a conflict with China – which is far from guaranteed, and may not draw in Australia – has spurred calls to make the AUKUS deal more useful for its short-term focus on China. Pezzullo, who helmed the 2009 defence white paper, said the Henderson base should be transformed into a joint facility. 'Better still, Australia could establish this shipyard, by treaty, as a joint Australian-US facility, in recognition of its vital role in the alliance, which could be at least as significant as the contribution of the Pine Gap satellite ground station,' he wrote in an article for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute think tank last month. In 2023, the Albanese government dismissed Pezzullo for exerting undue political influence under the previous Coalition government. 'Being able to operate routinely in the Indian Ocean without having to transit the congested littoral waters of Southeast Asia and in the Western Pacific in times of tension and conflict is of immense strategic value to the US,' Pezzullo wrote. Such a move would likely be contentious and trigger concerns, particularly on the left, about Australian sovereignty and hewing more closely to the US at a time when Western allies and citizens are growing more doubtful about US President Donald Trump's reliability. Loading But Shoebridge said Australia was already deeply enmeshed in US military architecture via Pine Gap, a critical intelligence facility near Alice Springs, and the presence of US Marines in Darwin, approved by former prime minister Julia Gillard. 'I think it would be getting to a level with Pine Gap,' Shoebridge said, backing the idea of a bigger plan for Henderson and criticising Labor for the speed of decision-making and funding on AUKUS milestones. 'If we're not doing those long lead-time items, how can we still tell the Americans we are serious about AUKUS?'
AU Financial Review
an hour ago
- AU Financial Review
G7 Summit will be a test of Albanese's diplomatic skill
Donald Trump has thrown another curveball at the US-Australia alliance by launching a Pentagon review of the $368 billion AUKUS trilateral defence pact to determine whether it serves America's national economic and security interests. It's reasonable to question the motives behind the probe. Trump's 'America First Agenda' has already sparked a tariff war and destabilised the international rules-based order. Meanwhile, the president's transactional diplomacy, such as threatening to withdraw US troops from Ukraine and questioning the relevance of longstanding defence alliances, has cast a cloud over America's reliability as a credible security partner.
