After Trump's bill, what's in store for the midterms?
President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill has just become law, so Republicans have concluded their major legislative business for this Congress. From here, the attention of elected officials — and the country — will turn more and more to the midterm elections. Democrats claim that the Republicans' controversial new budget is aiding their already healthy chances of winning the House next year. But candidates from both sides of the aisle will also be campaigning on other issues, from immigration to tariffs. I'm joined by my colleagues Perry Bacon Jr. and Karen Tumulty to discuss what we know (and what we don't yet know) about next year's elections.
— Ramesh Ponnuru, contributing columnist
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Ramesh Ponnuru Far from worrying about the impact of the Republicans' budget bill on the midterm elections, Speaker Mike Johnson said he thinks it will help his party. Do you agree?
Perry Bacon Jr. No. By some measures, the OBBB is the most unpopular bill in recent times. I assume Johnson's actual view is closer to 'We were probably going to lose the House anyway, so might as well pass the stuff we want.' But he can't say that out loud.
Karen Tumulty Game on! This is going to be a hard one for Republicans to frame for the elections. The tax 'cuts' are really just extensions of current tax provisions. The Medicaid cuts are hard for people to rally around. I think the GOP would be better off changing the subject — which is what I expect them to do.
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Ramesh Karen, what do you think they're going to make the focus of the campaign?
Karen A secured border. Crime. Anti-wokeism. A strong economy, and other greatest hits.
Ramesh Perry, you suggested that the Republicans were likely to lose the House even before this bill, and knew that. How confident are you in that assessment?
Perry Pretty confident. 2006, 2010, 2018 and 2022— recent midterms have been bad for the incumbent party in the House. It is almost a law of politics that the presidential party loses ground in the House in the midterms. And in this case, the Republicans already have a very narrow majority. Usually, voters from the party not in the White House turn out in bigger numbers and swing voters want to restrain the president's power.
Karen Agreed, but it is really harder for a big 🌊 to happen when there are so few swing districts these days.
Ramesh Do either of you see the Senate in play? The geography looks tough for Democrats.
Karen It's still early but: nope.
Perry Short answer: no. Longer answer: One big political factor is Thom Tillis's (R-North Carolina) retirement. Without an incumbent, North Carolina is more in play. Maine is also in play; Susan Collins has fairly low approval ratings. That makes two seats, but Democrats need to win four to take the Senate. That means looking toward Texas, which is a real stretch.
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Karen Can we talk about governors? There are three dozen races lined up for 2026, and a half-dozen or so of them could be really interesting. Very different from 2024.
Ramesh Sure, let's talk about the governors' races. How much do we expect national trends to matter there?
Perry I expect it to be something like 2018. Trump's unpopularity makes it easier for Democrats to win the governorship in states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but those races are still close.
Karen Governors are going to have to manage a lot of the fallout from this bill, starting with the Medicaid cuts. And also the effects of other Trump policies, like tariffs.
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Ramesh Many Democratic voters are frustrated with what they see as the ineffectuality and timidity of their party's leaders. Does that change the balance of enthusiasm to vote next year?
Perry Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer are not running in competitive races. Kathy Hochul, their fellow New Yorker, is — and appears much more feisty about Trump than them. Abigail Spanberger, a policy moderate running for governor of Virginia, is speaking bluntly about Trump. I think candidates in key races will not downplay Trump because they have to raise money and get volunteers and so on. I doubt many candidates outside very red areas will be running on how well they work with Trump.
Ramesh What are the stakes of the election? Specifically, what changes about the government if Republicans keep the House or lose it?
Karen If Republicans lose either chamber, that'll put the brakes on what's left of Trump's agenda.
Ramesh His legislative agenda, anyway!
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Perry This is an interesting question. Usually, I would say the midterms really matter because the House plays such a big role in budgets, impeachments, hearings and oversight. But Trump just cuts funding whenever he wants. And I doubt he cares about hearings. Democrats are not going to attempt another impeachment that fails in the Senate. I can't remember a time when I felt a party winning the House meant less in a policy sense. Symbolically, Democrats winning the House would suggest that voters are frustrated with Trump. But would the president be constrained by a Democratic-controlled House? No. Trump put most of the things he wanted from Congress in the bill that passed last week.
Karen But Trump won't be able to pass anything if the Democrats take either house. Or he would have to negotiate with Democrats if he wants to. Think about the negotiations that happened after the 1982 and 1994 midterms. Ronald Reagan raised taxes after having cut them. And in the 1990s, Bill Clinton made deals with Newt Gingrich on crime and welfare reform. Or even after 2010, when Joe Biden and Mitch McConnell ultimately negotiated a way to avoid the fiscal cliff. But it is still so early. We are going to know a lot more when we see what kind of candidates the two parties put up. Will the Republicans go full MAGA? Will the Democrats play to their base or to moderates?
Ramesh We also don't know what condition the country will be in next November. Reality gets a vote, too, after all.
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