When mountains trap storms: The deadly mechanics of cloudbursts which have killed over 700 in Pakistan
NDMA
) reported that 706 people have died in rain-related incidents since 26 June. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa remains the worst affected with 427 deaths, followed by Punjab with 164, Sindh with 29, Balochistan with 22, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir with 56, and eight in Islamabad.
More than 25,000 people have been rescued so far, NDMA chief Lieutenant General Inam Haider Malik said. The agency has warned that heavy monsoon spells are likely to continue until 10 September.
Karachi under water
In Karachi, torrential rains over two days inundated major roads, broke drainage systems, and left large parts of the city without power and internet. At least eight people were killed in separate incidents, including electrocutions and house collapses.
Mayor Murtaza Wahab declared a rain emergency and urged residents to remain indoors. 'It is expected to rain again from 2pm onwards. I would request people to avoid movement and if it starts to rain, please stay put where you are whether it is your office or residence,' he said.
Flights at Jinnah International Airport were delayed, cancelled, or diverted. Authorities deployed 26 de-watering pumps to clear standing water, while several bypasses and main roads were closed.
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Addressing a press conference, Wahab acknowledged the scale of the crisis. 'Climate change is a reality. If you want to make someone a target of criticism and say whatever you want, you can. But, you can see how huge a challenge
climate change
is for any government, state, or administration around the world.'
What are cloudbursts and why have they been so deadly?
The devastation has been worsened by cloudbursts, sudden downpours that unleash more than 100 millimetres of rain in an hour over a small area. These events are often described as 'rain bombs' because of their explosive nature.
'Mountains create conducive conditions where the rapid updraft movement of air happens,' said Dr Sandeep Pattnaik, Associate Professor at the School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences, IIT Bhubaneswar.
'Because atmospheric instability is often caused by the mixing of different air masses, particularly over the northwestern Himalayan mountainous region, it leads to the rapid and large-scale accumulation of water vapour over certain locations.'
He explained that when this water vapour builds up beyond a threshold, the clouds collapse. 'Once the excess accumulation of this water vapour and associated hydrometeors, called water loading, exceeds a certain threshold, the cloud is no longer able to hold that water, hence it releases large amounts of water over a short period.'
As reported by Reuters, Fahad Saeed, a senior climate scientist at Berlin-based Climate Analytics, said that in the mountains of northern Pakistan, the warm monsoon system coming from the east was meeting colder air coming from the west, from the subtropical jet stream - a high-altitude weather system that originates in the Mediterranean.
Global warming is pushing this jet stream further south in summer, he said, where it can now combine with the lower-level clouds of the monsoon in Pakistan, forming a tower of clouds which then generatesg intense rain.
Similar intense rainfall, though triggered by different local factors, takes place around the world, such as the floods in Texas in July, when more than 300 mm of rain fell in less than an hour, sending a wall of water down the Guadalupe River.
Tragedies in the North
In Buner district, a single cloudburst claimed as many as 300 lives. Flash floods and landslides destroyed entire villages, while boulders crashing down steep slopes reduced homes to rubble.
In one case, 24 members of a family in Qadar Nagar died on the eve of a wedding when their house was swept away. Umar Khan, the head of the family, said he survived only because he was not home at the time. Four of his relatives are still missing.
India also hit
Neighbouring India has faced similar disasters this season. Uttarakhand was struck by a cloudburst earlier this month, flooding the Himalayan village of Dharali. The event revived memories of the 2013 Uttarakhand floods, which killed more than 6,000 people and affected over 4,500 villages.
If a cloudburst happens over flat land, the rainfall spreads over a wide area, so the impact is less severe, said Pradeep Dangol, a senior hydrology research associate at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, based in Nepal.
But in steep mountain valleys, the rain is concentrated into narrow streams and slopes, with the potential to trigger flash floods and landslides, he said.
Why South Asia is vulnerable
The Himalayas, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush mountain ranges combine with moist monsoon winds to create conditions ripe for cloudbursts. Scientists say these events are becoming more frequent as the atmosphere warms.
'Whenever an event happens, it is a multidimensional issue. One thing is very sure, because the atmosphere gets warmer, erratic patterns develop. A rise in temperature leads to holding more water vapour, and it will lead to more rainfall,' Dr Pattnaik told India Today.
Khalid Khan, a former special secretary for climate change in Pakistan, warned: 'Rising global temperatures have supercharged the hydrologic cycle, leading to more intense and erratic rainfall. In our northern regions, warming accelerates glacier melt, adds excessive moisture to the atmosphere, and destabilises mountain slopes. In short, climate change is making rare events more frequent, and frequent events more destructive.'
Can they be predicted?
Cloudbursts remain almost impossible to forecast. Asfandyar Khan Khattak, an official from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, admitted: 'There was no forecasting system anywhere in the world that could predict the exact time and location of a cloudburst.'
Even in areas with early warning systems, such as Buner district, the sudden intensity of the rainfall struck before alerts could be issued.
Community organisations in northern Pakistan advise residents to avoid building near rivers or valleys, to keep emergency kits ready, and to postpone travel in hilly regions during heavy rains. They also stress the importance of afforestation and widening riverbanks to absorb excess water.
A warming future
Global warming has already breached the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold set in the Paris Agreement. The Himalayas could lose up to 80 per cent of their glaciers by the end of this century if current trends continue.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department has forecast further heavy rainfall in Sindh, Balochistan, and parts of Punjab in the coming days, warning of possible urban flooding in Karachi, Thatta, Badin, Tharparkar, and Hyderabad.
As rains continue and floodwaters rise, Pakistan's struggle underlines a larger truth. The monsoon is shifting, becoming less predictable and more destructive, and its impacts are falling hardest on those least prepared to withstand them.
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Khyber Pakhtunkhwa remains the worst affected with 427 deaths, followed by Punjab with 164, Sindh with 29, Balochistan with 22, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir with 56, and eight in than 25,000 people have been rescued so far, NDMA chief Lieutenant General Inam Haider Malik said. The agency has warned that heavy monsoon spells are likely to continue until 10 September. In Karachi, torrential rains over two days inundated major roads, broke drainage systems, and left large parts of the city without power and internet. At least eight people were killed in separate incidents, including electrocutions and house Murtaza Wahab declared a rain emergency and urged residents to remain indoors. 'It is expected to rain again from 2pm onwards. I would request people to avoid movement and if it starts to rain, please stay put where you are whether it is your office or residence,' he at Jinnah International Airport were delayed, cancelled, or diverted. Authorities deployed 26 de-watering pumps to clear standing water, while several bypasses and main roads were closed. Addressing a press conference, Wahab acknowledged the scale of the crisis. 'Climate change is a reality. If you want to make someone a target of criticism and say whatever you want, you can. But, you can see how huge a challenge climate change is for any government, state, or administration around the world.'The devastation has been worsened by cloudbursts, sudden downpours that unleash more than 100 millimetres of rain in an hour over a small area. These events are often described as 'rain bombs' because of their explosive nature.'Mountains create conducive conditions where the rapid updraft movement of air happens,' said Dr Sandeep Pattnaik, Associate Professor at the School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences, IIT Bhubaneswar.'Because atmospheric instability is often caused by the mixing of different air masses, particularly over the northwestern Himalayan mountainous region, it leads to the rapid and large-scale accumulation of water vapour over certain locations.'He explained that when this water vapour builds up beyond a threshold, the clouds collapse. 'Once the excess accumulation of this water vapour and associated hydrometeors, called water loading, exceeds a certain threshold, the cloud is no longer able to hold that water, hence it releases large amounts of water over a short period.'As reported by Reuters, Fahad Saeed, a senior climate scientist at Berlin-based Climate Analytics, said that in the mountains of northern Pakistan, the warm monsoon system coming from the east was meeting colder air coming from the west, from the subtropical jet stream - a high-altitude weather system that originates in the warming is pushing this jet stream further south in summer, he said, where it can now combine with the lower-level clouds of the monsoon in Pakistan, forming a tower of clouds which then generatesg intense intense rainfall, though triggered by different local factors, takes place around the world, such as the floods in Texas in July, when more than 300 mm of rain fell in less than an hour, sending a wall of water down the Guadalupe Buner district, a single cloudburst claimed as many as 300 lives. Flash floods and landslides destroyed entire villages, while boulders crashing down steep slopes reduced homes to one case, 24 members of a family in Qadar Nagar died on the eve of a wedding when their house was swept away. Umar Khan, the head of the family, said he survived only because he was not home at the time. Four of his relatives are still India has faced similar disasters this season. Uttarakhand was struck by a cloudburst earlier this month, flooding the Himalayan village of Dharali. The event revived memories of the 2013 Uttarakhand floods, which killed more than 6,000 people and affected over 4,500 a cloudburst happens over flat land, the rainfall spreads over a wide area, so the impact is less severe, said Pradeep Dangol, a senior hydrology research associate at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, based in in steep mountain valleys, the rain is concentrated into narrow streams and slopes, with the potential to trigger flash floods and landslides, he Himalayas, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush mountain ranges combine with moist monsoon winds to create conditions ripe for cloudbursts. Scientists say these events are becoming more frequent as the atmosphere warms.'Whenever an event happens, it is a multidimensional issue. One thing is very sure, because the atmosphere gets warmer, erratic patterns develop. A rise in temperature leads to holding more water vapour, and it will lead to more rainfall,' Dr Pattnaik told India Khan, a former special secretary for climate change in Pakistan, warned: 'Rising global temperatures have supercharged the hydrologic cycle, leading to more intense and erratic rainfall. In our northern regions, warming accelerates glacier melt, adds excessive moisture to the atmosphere, and destabilises mountain slopes. In short, climate change is making rare events more frequent, and frequent events more destructive.'Cloudbursts remain almost impossible to forecast. Asfandyar Khan Khattak, an official from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, admitted: 'There was no forecasting system anywhere in the world that could predict the exact time and location of a cloudburst.'Even in areas with early warning systems, such as Buner district, the sudden intensity of the rainfall struck before alerts could be organisations in northern Pakistan advise residents to avoid building near rivers or valleys, to keep emergency kits ready, and to postpone travel in hilly regions during heavy rains. They also stress the importance of afforestation and widening riverbanks to absorb excess warming has already breached the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold set in the Paris Agreement. The Himalayas could lose up to 80 per cent of their glaciers by the end of this century if current trends Pakistan Meteorological Department has forecast further heavy rainfall in Sindh, Balochistan, and parts of Punjab in the coming days, warning of possible urban flooding in Karachi, Thatta, Badin, Tharparkar, and rains continue and floodwaters rise, Pakistan's struggle underlines a larger truth. The monsoon is shifting, becoming less predictable and more destructive, and its impacts are falling hardest on those least prepared to withstand them.
