Hamilton by-elections comparisons 'absurd' says SNP expert

The Herald Scotland

2 days ago

Political observers have been likening the two races in recent weeks noting the surprise win for underdog Ms Ewing against the Labour frontrunner Alexander Wilson and the prospect this Thursday that outsider Reform UK could take the seat after polling suggesting the populist party has been gaining ground.
The 1967 Westminster by-election was called after the constituency's Labour MP Tom Fraser resigned in order to take up the position as head of the North of Scotland Hydro-Electric Board.
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The area had been a safe seat for Labour, who had taken over two-thirds of the vote there in every general election from 1945 to 1966, when only the Conservatives had stood against them.
But Ms Ewing confounded expectations when she won the November 1967 by-election for the SNP giving her party a sole seat in Westminster -it second ever at the time.
The constituency had been a safe seat for Labour, who had taken over two-thirds of the vote there in every general election from 1945 to 1966, when only the Conservatives had stood against them.
Professor James Mitchell (Image: STEWART ATTWOOD) In recent weeks speculation has been mounting whether Reform UK could similarly take Scottish politics by surprise and gain its first MSP in Holyrood in a seat which has been held by the SNP since 2011 and before then was a Labour heartland.
The by-election was called after the untimely death in March of the constituency SNP MSP and Scottish government minister Christina McKelvie at the age of 57 from secondary breast cancer.
Professor Mitchell told The Herald comparisons between the two races were misplaced.
"At this stage in the 1967 Hamilton by-election Labour was confident of victory and the SNP were not at all expected to win," he said.
Winnie Ewing arriving in Westminster after her Hamilton by-election victory in 1967 (Image: IAN JOLLY) "It appears that Reform are cranking up the hype. If they do not win now it will look like a setback for them. The comparison with Hamilton is clearly absurd. Hamilton's impact was not understood until some time after the by-election and required an SNP victory. I think those making the comparison need to find a quiet space and calm down."
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However, speaking as the campaign enters its final days, he added that whatever the outcome on Thursday Reform UK had given the established parties "a wake-up call".
He said a lack of detailed policies suggested voters were supporting them "in protest" against the established who would need to examine why apparently so many voters were ready to back them.
"It is clear that Reform has given the established parties a scare in the by-election. Reform's lack of policies means that its support can be interpreted as a protest vote.
"But that should not be written off as irrelevant. When voters decide to turn in large numbers to a party to protest it should be a wake-up call for established parties. We need to recognise why people feel so disaffected that they are turning to a party of protest," he added.
He went on to say that even if Reform does "very well" or wins it would not mean that it would hold the seat at the Holyrood elections in May next year and that it is likely to win power in Scotland.
"A good showing for Reform in the by-election is likely to give it a short-term boost in support in the polls not least as there will be considerable coverage and discussion of the party.
"Reform needs to get as much publicity as it can get. But between now and next May there may not be many more opportunities for Reform to attract as much attention.
"By-elections are crucial for fringe parties. Winning a by-election is much easier than holding it at the subsequent general election. By-elections are not good predictors of general elections. There is a tendency for the seat to revert to the previous or some other winner at the subsequent general election."
Professor Mitchell said a key question will be how disaffected voters who are currently inclined to support Reform would vote next May - and whether Labour could pull back any support lost from this group.
"It seems highly improbable that they will vote SNP given that time has really run out to deliver on the range of promises the SNP has made over the years. John Swinney may have stalled but he has not reversed the SNP's decline.
"His best hope is that the SNP's core independence vote is enough to ensure the SNP is the largest party in a Parliament of many minorities. But that is going to make governing difficult," he said.
"A great deal now rests on the perceived performance of the UK Labour Government. If Labour in London are seen to be starting to deliver on its commitments then Scottish Labour should be able to attract disaffected voters.
"That section of the electorate that is likely to vote Reform is more unsettled and less attached to any party so that is far from impossible but Labour needs to give these voters good reason to vote for it."
Professor Mitchell said Reform's best chances of winning seats on the regional lists, which are voted on under proportional representation, a system which gives smaller parties a better chance of success than the first-past-the-post system.
"Reform is polling sufficiently well at the moment to gain list seats across Scotland," he said.
"It has more chance of disrupting the next election than becoming the largest party or being part of a governing coalition. None of the existing parties in Holyrood will want to align themselves with Reform.
"It would not be in their interests. The Tories face the biggest threat as Reform is challenging the Tories as the party of the right. The Tories need to regain its status as the unchallenged party of the right. Labour would lose considerable support and members if it did any kind of deal with Reform and it is ideologically totally at odds with Reform."
He said as the political landscape currently looked it was unlikely the SNP if they won next year's Holyrood election would have enough MSPs to form a majority government if Labour failed to recover and that a governing deal between the Conservatives and Labour was unlikely "given the damage done to Labour as a consequence of the common position opposed to independence".