Trump's gamble in Iran: Implications for the US, its allies, and a weakened Tehran
In a bold political gamble, US President Donald Trump has now entered the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, after initially distancing himself from Tel Aviv's strikes on Tehran's nuclear infrastructure earlier this month. Whether or not this was his original intent, Trump's intervention carries far-reaching implications—not just for US domestic politics and foreign policy, but also for the geopolitics of the Middle East and broader Asia.
Trump's principal political challenge may not come from international criticism labelling his actions as illegal—a view echoed by the opposition Democratic Party—but rather from within his own support base, the 'Make America Great Again' coalition.
A key element that propelled Trump back into the White House has been the solid support of the populist right-wing that has been vocal in its opposition to America's 'endless wars' in the Middle East. Throughout his campaign, Trump promised to be a 'peace president,' pledging to avoid military entanglements abroad. His calculation appears to be that the strike on Iran would be swift and decisive and that Tehran would comply with his demands.
But recent American history suggests it is far easier to start a war than to end one. The enemy, after all, has a say in when—and whether—it ends. Trump is betting that Iran is too weak to mount a significant response or that American military power can suppress any escalation. Yet if he is dragged into a drawn-out conflict, the resulting backlash could erode his domestic support and jeopardise his presidency.
Iran, for its part, has shown little interest in capitulating. It has launched missile attacks against Israel, though the frequency and intensity of these strikes are tapering off. Israel, enjoying complete air superiority, continues to target Iranian military infrastructure with impunity.
Still, Tehran retains the option to widen the war—by targeting US forces in the region, attacking American allies, or disrupting vital oil shipping lanes in the Gulf. Such actions would provoke massive retaliation from the US, particularly against Iran's oil sector. Yet with the Islamic Republic's political credibility on the line, passivity is not an option.
Over the past year and a half, Iran has lost considerable ground in the Middle East. A resurgent Israel has dealt major blows to Tehran's regional proxies, including Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran has also lost a key ally in Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Meanwhile, its principal international backers—Russia and China—have criticised US actions but offered little tangible support in the face of coordinated Israeli-American military pressure. Whether Moscow and Beijing will now step in to provide political or diplomatic cover for Tehran remains uncertain.
Iran's Arab neighbors, who have no reason to love the Islamic Republic of Iran, have provided passive support to Israel's offensive. Many in the Gulf may quietly welcome the dismantling of Iran's nuclear capabilities, but they also fear the consequences of a prolonged war that could destabilise the region and threaten their own security.
For Israel, US military involvement represents a major strategic victory. Tel Aviv's goals go beyond halting Iran's nuclear programme—it seeks regime change in Tehran. Whether the nuclear infrastructure has been permanently destroyed or merely set back remains unclear. Tehran insists the US strikes had minimal impact, and many observers suspect Iran may have secured its enriched uranium stockpiles before the bombing began. While Israel continues to pursue the elusive goal of regime change, the outcome remains far from certain.
Beyond the Middle East, America's Asian allies are watching with concern. They worry that Washington's oft-repeated 'pivot to Asia' could once again be sidelined by military entanglements in the Middle East. Beijing, however, is unlikely to object. A distracted United States, preoccupied with the Middle Eastern wars, makes it easier for China to pursue strategic primacy across the Indo-Pacific.
(C Raja Mohan is a distinguished fellow at the Council on Strategic and Defence Research, Delhi, and a contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express)
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Hans India
32 minutes ago
- Hans India
MyVoice: Views of our readers 23rd June 2025
A point of no return in West Asia The Iran and Israel war has taken a dangerous turn with the US entering the war and straightaway destroying three nuclear facilities in Iran. This has pushed the war to a point of no return, especially for Tehran. In its desperation, Iran may contemplate blocking the strait of Hormuz as an effective measure to strangle vital fuel transports, apart from being engaged in a direct fight with Israel. The worsening situation in West Asia would cost the global economy dearly. Seemingly, India urging Iran for de-escalation may fall on deaf ears, given that America and Israel are responsible for the escalation. Dr DVG Sankara Rao,Former MP, Vizianagaram Trump has cheated his own people Hours after Pakistan decided to nominate US President Donald Trump for the 2026 Nobel Prize for Peace, the White House dropped a 'full payload of bombs' on three key nuclear sites in Iran. The irony could not have been starker. US involvement in the war is noticeably evident. By 'substituting' Israel with the US in the war against Iran, Trump has dishonoured his election pledge of staying away from unending overseas wars and thereby betrayed the American voters. As POTUS, Trump has the 'luxury' of being able to launch bomb attacks on a sovereign nation and then triumphantly describe them as a 'spectacular success' and get away with the naked aggression. The blitzkrieg with state-of-the-art bombs targeting the nuclear facilities was an act of 'deception' in that it was carried out within two days of Trump's announcement of a two-week window to try diplomacy. Trump's claim that Iran's nuclear sites were 'completely and totally obliterated' by the bombs needs to be corroborated by an on-the-ground assessment of the extent of the damage. It is some consolation that there were no signs of radioactive contamination. Meanwhile, Tehran's determination to develop its nuclear programme does not seem to have been dented by the US strikes. Its resoluteness to defend itself remains unshaken as evidenced by the retaliatory missile attacks - despite Trump's warning of 'use of far greater force' and 'far worse tragedy'. How safe the world is during Trump's presidency remains a worrisome question. G David Milton,Maruthancode (TN) Flashpoint in West Asia Although America has devastated Iran's nuclear installations, and thereby posing grave risk to Israel, Tehran apparently has not learnt any lessons as it belligerently continues to launch counter missile attacks. It is blocking Hormuz straits, which is the world's largest place for transporting crude oil. This step will result in a major shock to the global economy, vis-à-vis oil supply. The repercussions would be felt everywhere. B. Veerakumaran Act of bravery or cowardness? The USA has ultimately done what it has been saying, all along. Despite being the most powerful nation, both militarily and economically, Washington seems to be afraid of Iran. In fact, the US has failed to pressurise Israel. Today the fear of World War III haunts everyone, particularly after America's latest show of aggression. Will India react in a proper way and protest the onslaughts by Israel and the US, remains to be seen. Kant S Deodhar,Hyderabad On the brink of World War III The world is on the edge of World War III if one goes by the US strikes against three nuclear enrichment sites in Iran—Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. In effect, Washington entered Israel's war with Iran in the early hours of Sunday. US President Donald Trump has termed it a 'historic moment' for the US, Israel and the world, even as he blabbers about it being the 'time for peace'. All US planes outside of Iran air space have returned. A full payload of bombs was dropped on the primary site. A top official has asserted that several 30,000-pound bunker bombs were dropped on the underground nuclear facility in Fordow and that initial damage assessments indicated that the facility had been 'taken off the table'. The three attacks come a few days after Israel launched its operation in Iran, carrying out a series of strikes on nuclear facilities, key military personnel and nuclear scientists. With Iran talking of 'death to Israel' and 'death to the US', World War III appears imminent. The entire world, including India, must be prepared for such a catastrophic eventuality. Bhagwan Thadani,Mumbai
Indian Express
33 minutes ago
- Indian Express
Daily Briefing: As US enters Iran-Israel conflict, what's next?
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Time of India
33 minutes ago
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'Went in and out without anyone knowing': How US' B-2 jets flew undetected into Iranian skies and rained hellfire; explained
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