Daily Briefing: As US enters Iran-Israel conflict, what's next?

Indian Express

3 hours ago

Uncertainty persists a day after the US struck three key nuclear facilities in Iran. Experts are yet to determine the exact damage to Iran's nuclear facilities. A question mark hangs over the fate of the Iran-controlled Strait of Hormuz, via which 20% of global oil and gas demand flows. Most crucially, the world awaits Iran's response to the US strikes after it vowed to defend itself. Let's look at what happened and what likely comes next.
Recap: The US military deployed a group of B-2 bombers from Missouri towards the Pacific island of Guam. It was seen as a possible pre-positioning for any US decision to strike Iran. It turned out that this was a decoy. The real group of B-2 stealth bombers flew east, undetected for 18 hours, before unleashing the heavy-duty bunker buster bombs on Iran's critical Fordow nuclear sites. Simultaneously, Navy submarines fired 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Natanz and Isfahan atomic sites.
The damage: While Israel had targeted Natanz, a uranium enrichment site, and Isfahan, a storage facility for near-bomb-grade nuclear fuel, in earlier strikes, it needed US assistance to target Fordow. It is Iran's most critical nuclear enrichment facility, housed deep inside a mountain. As my colleague Amitabh Sinha explains, the US strikes did not pose threats of a nuclear explosion, nor have they led to any major radiation leak. Notably, while satellite imagery showed significant damage to Fordow, the extent of below-ground destruction remains unknown. Speculation was also rife that Iran may have moved its enriched uranium to a secure facility before the US attack. An unnamed Iranian source confirmed this to the news agency Reuters.
The politics: US President Donald Trump's decision to enter the war may receive the most severe criticism from his own support base. Trump rode the right-wing populist wave to power, promising to keep the US out of the endless wars in the Middle East. If the conflict with Tehran widens, he may lose crucial support. So far, Trump acolytes have insisted that the US was not at 'war' with Iran, and the actions were not aimed at a regime change (though a post on Trump's Truth Social, calling to 'Make Iran Great Again', argued precisely the opposite). Contributing editor C Raja Mohan takes a comprehensive view of the attack's impact in the region.
The tightrope: India walks a diplomatic tightrope as it has ties with both Iran and Israel — and now, the US — to protect. In a phone call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged for de-escalation, an appeal echoed by world leaders across the globe. The conflict also threatens to upend India's military capabilities if it stretches on. India accounts for 34 per cent of Israel's arms imports, including loitering munitions and air defence systems deployed during Operation Sindoor. Military sources told my colleague Amrita Nayak Dutta that the war may not impact Indian military hardware just yet. However, if Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, a motion already approved in Iranian parliament, it may severely hit India's oil and gas imports.
🎧 For more on the US strikes in Iran, tune in to today's '3 Things' podcast episode.
Moving on to the rest of the day's headlines.
India has sealed the trade deal with the UK; another one with the US is in the offing. But are the trade talks with the European Union lagging? 'What is important is not about being fast and furious, but resolute and substantial, for both constituencies. Europeans may be a bit slower, we are a bit bureaucratic, we are not shining, but at the end of the day, we deliver,' the EU Ambassador to India, Herve Delphin, said. Read everything he said about EU-India ties in the latest Idea Exchange session.
ID'ed: The National Investigation Agency has made a breakthrough in its probe into the April 22 Pahalgam attack, identifying the three attackers — all from Pakistan. Crucially, the identities differ from the three sketches released by the Jammu and Kashmir police right after the incident.
Dig in: Mining and related activities are prohibited in a one-kilometre zone outside the Critical Tiger Habitat (CTH) in the Sariska Tiger Reserve. Last year, over 50 marble and dolomite mines were shut down on the Supreme Court's order due to their proximity to the CTH. Now, a plan to retreat the CTH boundaries may hand a lifeline to these mines.
Data crunch: Macroeconomic figures point to steady growth for India, but rarely account for individual well-being. Researchers Ashok Gulati and Ritika Juneja's breakdown of the numbers shows that India's poverty levels have reached a historic low. There may be a need to reexamine government policies, particularly around the food and fertiliser subsidies.
'Spiritual Disneyland': In 2021, bulldozers arrived at Auroville to make way for the Centre's master plan to redevelop the experimental township. The Centre insists its plans are based on the Galaxy Plan of the township's founder, Mirra Alfassa or 'Mother'. However, long-time residents have accused the authorities of indulging in 'methodical erosion' of the township's founding ideals, alleging control, surveillance, and censorship. A wave of visa renewal denials has also left many of the Aurovillians displaced. Arun Janardhan spoke to the residents to make sense of the allegations.
In England's first innings against India in the ongoing Test series, Harry Brook stopped just one short of scoring a century. National sports editor Sandeep Dwivedi travelled to rural Yorkshire, where a village of 7,000 raised Brook. A boy who practically grew up at a clubhouse in the village's centre is now England's big batting hope and their heir-apparent to Test skipper Ben Stokes. Read Dwivedi's dispatch.
That's all for today, folks! Until tomorrow,
Sonal Gupta
Sonal Gupta is a senior sub-editor on the news desk. She writes feature stories and explainers on a wide range of topics from art and culture to international affairs. She also curates the Morning Expresso, a daily briefing of top stories of the day, which won gold in the 'best newsletter' category at the WAN-IFRA South Asian Digital Media Awards 2023. She also edits our newly-launched pop culture section, Fresh Take.
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