A multi-front war to remake US & world
In his quest to remake America and the world, Donald Trump is deliberately sharpening contradictions with forces he sees as obstacles to his ability to exercise power and fulfill ideological goals. The big question is whether he succeeds in shifting the balance of power in his favour or whether his multi-pronged assault results in a multi-pronged backlash or whether he advances in some domains and retreats in others.
President Trump's first domestic battle is against the US judiciary. In his first term, Trump already remade the American judiciary with a plethora of nominations of arch conservatives at different levels. When he was out of power, Trump benefited from the Supreme Court judgment on abortion (the order won him the Christian Right's loyalty) and presidential immunity (by offering a wide definition of what constituted official actions, the order absolved him of January 6-related crimes and gave him unchecked power in this term). However, to counter the work done to hold him to account for his alleged crimes, Trump sowed doubts about the legitimacy of the judiciary throughout the campaign.
Trump's second battle is against the US legislature, a battle that gets obscured by the slim Republican majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. This battle has two dimensions. The first is Trump's clear move to usurp Congressional authority with the relentless use of executive orders in a range of areas from tariffs to immigration, from government spending to the very existence of Congressionally mandated government institutions. The second dimension is the unprecedented pressure and threat that the White House is bringing to bear on legislators on the Hill to toe its line. For now, in both cases, Trump is prevailing, but how the battle evolves will answer a fundamental question: Will the Congress remain a co-equal branch of the American government or a subservient one? Will legislators hold the executive to account or be an instrument of the executive?
Trump's third battle is with the administrative State. What we have witnessed is the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)'s work, the dismantling of agencies and departments, the downsizing of personnel, the plans to dramatically whittle down the State Department, and the weakening of regulatory institutions. Its consequences are yet to fully play out. And there will be resistance in some form eventually. But this battle will answer a key question: Can a US, without the architecture of the current American State, remain stable and effective internally, and powerful and dominant externally? And after the demolition, is there an agenda for construction?
Trump has opened a fourth front against business, markets and the Federal Reserve with his tariff policy. Both American and international capital remain shaken by the policy uncertainty induced by Trump's swings on the subject. The markets are regularly sending a negative message about tariffs and US credibility. Trump wants Fed chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates; Powell has refused to be bullied and has flagged risks of unemployment and inflation. The markets took another beating as it witnessed this executive breach into central bank turf. These are serious institutional strains at a time when the economy faces real risk of not just a downturn but recession. And that has political implications: Can Trumpian economic shock and Trumpian political dominance coexist?
On the fifth front, Trump has openly targeted American civil society, universities, and independent professions. His ideological world sees these as liberal bastions controlled by a tiny few whose doors were closed for conservatives. But it is hard to escape the conclusion that Trump's actions represent a direct assault on America's knowledge infrastructure, on science and independent thought, on lawyers and academics, on the non-profit world — all because they are not seen as politically pliable. Can America retain its democratic and knowledge advantage while eroding mechanisms of democracy and sources of knowledge?
Trump's sixth front is against allies both in the Americas and Europe, with his contempt highest for those most dependent on the US. This has caused a fundamental rupture in the Trans-Atlantic strategic alliance, opened doors for a major break in the West's internal economic relationship, and led allies in Asia to doubt American commitment to their security. At the same time, allies, partners and even most antagonists are keen to cut bilateral deals with the US rather than face Trumpian wrath. So, will this battle result in a break in the US-led alliance system or its consolidation with a reset of terms of ties in the US's favour?
Seven, whether it was planned or imposed to lend retrospective coherence to the tariff policy swings, Trump has opened an economic front with China. He will hurt China's exports but will also hurt American consumers and business. The economic war can spill over to the strategic space anytime. The challenge of both competing and maintaining peace with China will become harder. This will open opportunities but also create new threats for other players. Alternatively, if the two sides arrive at a deal, the terms of the deal may well be to the detriment of other stakeholders in the region. How this battle plays out will determine whether the US and China can live in peace and on what terms.
Then there are Trump's battles against diversity and inclusion, climate and environment, international law and multilateral order. In his first 100 days, Trump has clearly waged an all-out war. It can help consolidate his power or invite a backlash. This story has just begun.
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Indian Express
15 minutes ago
- Indian Express
Tariff Tracker, June 14: US-China talks restore May 12 status, World Bank forecasts slowdown
Dear reader, Washington will host a massive military parade commemorating 250 years of the US Army on Saturday (June 14), which also happens to be US President Donald Trump's 79th birthday. The event is estimated to cost between $25 million and $45 million, and feature over 6,000 soldiers, 128 army tanks, armoured personnel carriers and artillery, as well as an aerial display featuring 62 aircraft, according to AP reporting. Traditionally, US military parades have been conducted at the end of a war to celebrate victory or to welcome the returning troops. The last military parade took place in 1991 at the end of the Gulf War, and was a less contentious event than Saturday's festivities. The timing is significant as well. Over the last week, the Trump administration has initiated a new phase of its sweeping crackdown against illegal immigration. Raids by the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the garment district in Los Angeles resulted in a flurry of arrests, triggering protests by residents. As the standoff escalated, the US President fanned the fire further, deploying the National Guard and Marines in the city. These moves are unprecedented – the last time a US president deployed the National Guard bypassing a state governor's mandate, it was Lyndon B Johnson in 1958 (check year) seeking to protect Civil Rights activists marching from Selma to Montgomery in Alabama. The use of the National Guard, typically a decision exercised by the state, was challenged in court by California Governor Gavin Newsom, and a federal court ruled in his favour on Friday, ordering control of the troops to be restored to Newsom. However, this order was almost immediately stayed following an appeal by the Trump administration. The latest round of trade talks between the US and China this week reportedly resulted in a handshake agreement between the officials of the two countries on Wednesday (June 11) in London. In a social media post, Trump wrote, 'OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI (Jinping) AND ME.' While details of the agreement are still to be revealed, reports suggest a return to the terms agreed by both countries on May 12 in Geneva. You will recall that the US and China agreed to lower their tariffs on each other by 115%, reducing US tariffs on China to 30% and Chinese tariffs to 10%. The escalating trade war between the US and China began in February, with Trump announcing a 10% fentanyl tariff on China along with tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which was doubled to 20% in March. Unlike other nations, China did not immediately seek talks with the US president, and instead, announced countermeasures targeting Liquefied Natural Gas, coal, and farm machinery, among other products. Trump's Liberation Day tariff announcements singled out China, and in the days that followed, saw US tariffs on Chinese products reach 145%, while China charged 125% tariffs. China also decided to hit the US (and by extension the rest of the world) where it hurts most, by announcing an elaborate licensing system to restrict rare earths exports, citing a national security risk. We explained why this move is significant in the Tariff Tracker on June 2. The May 12 agreement had extracted an assurance from the Chinese side to resume rare earths exports. However, the Trump administration accused China of acting slowly in this regard and moved to retaliate, restricting access to a range of software, products, chemicals and technologies critical to the Chinese manufacture of advanced chips and jet engines. Ultimately the a detente became possible following a phone call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping last Thursday (June 5) to iron out the differences. For now, the talks have resulted in one certain outcome – that American restrictions on exports of tech and ethane gas to China, as well as visa restrictions targeting Chinese students, would be removed. In exchange, China has agreed to grant rare earths licences to US firms, according to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. However, these licences would only be valid for 6 months, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal citing people familiar with the matter. On May 29, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit stayed an order by the US Court for International Trade, which had ruled Trump's tariffs were illegal under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, 1977 (IEEPA). These pertained to two sets of tariffs – the Liberation Day tariffs, which stipulated a 10% baseline tariff for all countries and the country-specific tariffs, as well as the fentanyl tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. On Tuesday (June 10), the appeals court ruled that the tariffs could continue even as legal challenges against them were being heard. However, the court allowed for the cases challenging the tariffs to be expedited, and that the case will be heard on a sped-up basis by the full panel of judges at the court. 'The court also concludes that these cases present issues of exceptional importance warranting expedited en banc consideration of the merits in the first instance,' the order said. The May 29 ruling had said that Trump had exceeded his powers as president in using the emergency powers under the IEEPA to impose tariffs on all countries, using the US's trade deficit as a rationale. In the Tariff Tracker on May 29, we explained how emergency laws have been used in the US, and how the federal court ruled thus. In its biannual Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank forecasted a global economic slowdown due to 'substantial headwinds, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty.' However, this would likely stop short of a full-blown recession. The World Bank also announced that the fallout of Trump's tariffs could lead to the weakest decade of economic growth since the 1960s, with global output expected to slow to 2.3% in 2025 from 2.8% last year. The decline would be most acutely felt by the US, with growth estimated to decline to 1.4% from 2.8% last year. 'The rise in trade barriers, heightened uncertainty and the spike in financial market volatility are set to weigh on private consumption, international trade and investment,' the report said. It also anticipated a decline in investment 'due to record-high uncertainty, the rise in financing costs, and reduced domestic and external demand.' The World Bank also said that if the tariff rates were to be halved, global economic growth could rise by 0.2% over the next two years. Emerging markets and developing economies would continue to outperform developed nations this year too, but the extent of growth would not be sufficient to narrow income gaps with richer countries, boost job creation, and reduce extreme poverty. India is projected to grow by 6.3% over 2025-26, the fastest-growing large economy. In the face of global uncertainty, investments and exports would remain subdued. The number aligns with the IMF's forecast of 6.2% over the coming year in its World Economic Outlook report.
Time of India
18 minutes ago
- Time of India
‘No Kings' protests to sweep US as Trump marks army anniversary with parade on his 79th birthday
The No Kings protests are being coordinated by a wide coalition of progressive groups Cities large and small across the United States braced for mass protests Saturday as the 'No Kings' Day of Defiance unfolded in response to President Donald Trump's policies and a $45 million military parade in Washington, DC, marking the Army's 250th anniversary, and Trump's 79th birthday. Though no protests are scheduled in the capital itself, where tanks and helicopters will roll past cheering crowds, organizers have planned demonstrations in nearly 2,000 locations nationwide. The 'No Kings' campaign, led by the 50501 Movement, named for 50 states, 50 protests, one movement, was designed to counter what they describe as a 'billionaire-first,' increasingly militarized administration. 'The flag doesn't belong to President Trump. It belongs to us,' the movement's website declared. 'On June 14th, we're showing up everywhere he isn't, to say no thrones, no crowns, no kings.' Protests intensify amid immigration raids and military deployments The nationwide protests have been further inflamed by Trump's federal immigration enforcement raids and his decision to send National Guard troops and Marines to Los Angeles. The move came after protesters blocked a freeway and set cars ablaze. Police responded with tear gas, rubber bullets, and flash-bang grenades, and local officials imposed curfews. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 5 Books Warren Buffett Wants You to Read In 2025 Blinkist: Warren Buffett's Reading List Undo Democratic governors quickly condemned Trump's deployment of federal forces. 'This is an alarming abuse of power,' several said in a joint statement, warning the administration not to undermine local law enforcement. Still, officials pledged to protect the right to protest peacefully while cracking down on violence and property damage. Philadelphia, site of the flagship 'No Kings' rally, is preparing for an estimated 100,000 demonstrators. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro said his administration and state police were coordinating with local law enforcement, while Philadelphia DA Larry Krasner said immigration agents exceeding their authority would be arrested. 'If you're doing what Martin Luther King would have done, you're going to be fine,' Krasner said. National guard mobilized in multiple states Republican governors in Virginia, Texas, Nebraska and Missouri have taken preemptive steps, mobilizing their National Guard troops. 'There will be zero tolerance for violence, destruction or disrupting traffic,' said Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin. 'If you violate the law, you're going to be arrested.' Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe echoed the approach, saying he wouldn't 'wait for chaos to ensue,' while Nebraska's governor signed an emergency proclamation activating the state's Guard, citing 'recent instances of civil unrest across the country.' In Florida, a march is expected to reach the gates of Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort. Gov. Ron DeSantis warned protesters that 'the line is very clear, do not cross it.' Democrats call for calm While supporting the protests, Democratic leaders stressed the importance of nonviolence. Washington state Gov. Bob Ferguson warned that any unrest could be used as justification for further federal intervention. 'Donald Trump wants to be able to say that we cannot handle our own public safety in Washington state,' Ferguson said. Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs also appealed for peace, urging demonstrators to 'remain calm as they exercise their First Amendment right to make their voices heard.' In California, state troopers have been placed on 'tactical alert,' meaning all days off are canceled for officers amid fears of escalating unrest. A symbolic showdown The 'No Kings' protests are timed deliberately to clash with the military celebration in Washington, which the Army says could draw up to 200,000 attendees and includes hundreds of military vehicles, aircraft, and nearly 7,000 soldiers. Organizers call the event a symbol of excessive presidential power. Protests earlier this year have linked Trump and tech billionaire Elon Musk, accusing them of treating democratic institutions like personal empires. The name 'No Kings' references both that sentiment and the historical rejection of monarchy in America's founding. Saturday's demonstrations, billed as a peaceful but forceful rejection of Trumpism, are expected to be the largest single-day protest since Trump's return to the White House. 'No weapons of any kind' are permitted at the events, and all participants are urged to de-escalate if tensions rise. Organizers hope their message is heard: 'This isn't just about Trump,' one organizer said. 'It's about rejecting the idea that anyone, president or billionaire, is above the people.'
Time of India
24 minutes ago
- Time of India
'No Kings' protests sweep US as Trump stages $45 million military parade
As tanks roll through Washington's streets in celebration of the US Army's 250th anniversary, millions across the country are expected to gather in protest against what they describe as the authoritarian excesses of Donald Trump's second term. The nationwide demonstrations, under the banner 'No Kings', are taking place in roughly 2,000 locations, from major cities to rural counties, in what may become the most significant mobilisation since Trump's re-election. The protests are timed to coincide with the President's birthday and the military parade. The parade features 6,000 Army troops, 49 aircraft, 128 military vehicles, and even 25 horses. The cost is projected between $25 million and $45 million. Though the Pentagon says the parade marks the Army's historic milestone, organisers claim it is being used as a 'vanity display' by Trump. The event, which Trump had wanted to stage during his first term after witnessing France's Bastille Day celebrations in 2017, had been cancelled earlier due to high cost. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Play War Thunder now for free War Thunder Play Now D.C. avoided, Philadelphia becomes focal point Despite the parade's location, 'No Kings' organisers have intentionally avoided holding protests in Washington DC. Instead, Philadelphia—home to the US Constitution—will host the flagship event. A local group is also organising a 'DC Joy Day' to celebrate the city's culture without inviting confrontation near the military spectacle. According to the protest website, the goal is to draw a 'clear contrast between our people-powered movement and the costly, wasteful, and un-American birthday parade in Washington'. Live Events The coalition includes over 200 organisations such as the American Civil Liberties Union , the American Federation of Teachers, and the Communications Workers of America. Their call: 'No thrones. No crowns. No kings.' Rising tensions and pre-emptive crackdowns In the days leading up to the protest, tensions have escalated. Trump ordered National Guard and US Marine deployments to Los Angeles earlier this week, aiming to suppress anti-deportation protests. It was a move many civil rights groups have likened to Cold War-era military interventions. Interest in 'No Kings' reportedly surged following this. Republican governors in several states have also taken action. Texas Governor Greg Abbott activated his state's National Guard ahead of the protest wave. In Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis publicly stated that drivers could legally hit protesters if surrounded by a crowd. 'You don't have to sit there and just be a sitting duck and let the mob grab you out of your car and drag you through the streets. You have a right to defend yourself in Florida,' he said. Trump responds: 'I don't feel like a King' On Thursday, Trump was asked directly about the 'No Kings' protests. 'I don't feel like a king. I have to go through hell to get things approved,' he said. Earlier in the week, he had warned that protesters would be 'met with very big force', though the White House later softened that message by claiming he supported peaceful demonstrations. Still, Trump also said Tuesday: 'By the way, for those people that want to protest, they're going to be met with very big force. And I haven't even heard about a protest, but you know, this is people that hate our country.' A year of growing dissent The scale of anti-Trump demonstrations has grown since his second term began in February. According to the Harvard-based Crowd Counting Consortium, there were three times as many protests by March 2025 as during the same period in 2017. These actions have spanned causes, including mass deportations, federal budget cuts, and public opposition to Elon Musk's growing influence in federal contracts. The previous largest day of protest, the 'Hands Off' march in April, drew around 1.5 million people according to independent estimates. The consortium stated in a new analysis: 'Overall, 2017's numbers pale in comparison to the scale and scope of mobilisation in 2025 – a fact often unnoticed in the public discourse about the response to Trump's actions.' Protests stress non-violence Organisers of 'No Kings' have reiterated a commitment to nonviolence. Participant guides distributed ahead of Saturday's events urge attendees to de-escalate potential conflicts and avoid provocation. The organisers' statement reads: 'We're showing up everywhere he isn't—to say no thrones, no crowns, no kings.' Despite the tense atmosphere, the message from the streets remains clear. As Trump's display of force takes centre stage in Washington, much of the rest of America is choosing to show a different face—one of defiance, unity, and peaceful resistance.
