Bank of Japan pivot to QE may fuel Bitcoin rally — Arthur Hayes
The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) upcoming monetary policy meeting in June may provide the next significant catalyst for global risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies.
The BoJ is set to take its next interest rate decision at its upcoming monetary policy meeting on June 16–17.
The central bank may provide the next significant catalyst for Bitcoin and other risk assets if it pivots to quantitative easing (QE), according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom.
'If the BOJ delays QT, and restarts selected QE at its June meeting risk assets are going to fly,' Hayes wrote in a June 10 X post.
QE refers to central banks buying bonds and pumping money into the economy to lower interest rates and encourage spending during difficult financial conditions.
On July 31, 2024, the Bank of Japan introduced a plan to cut government bond purchases by 400 billion yen per quarter, starting in August 2024. The quantitative tightening plan is set for an interim assessment period at the upcoming meeting on June 16, signaling a potential opportunity to pivot.
BoJ officials are reportedly discussing making smaller reductions to the bank's bond buying, from the current 400 billion to 200 billion yen per quarter, starting from April 2027, unnamed sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. Japanese bond market crisis was the catalyst for Bitcoin's $112,000 high
Bitcoin rose to the $112,000 all-time high on May 22, two days after the 30-year yield on Japanese bonds reached a new all-time high of 3.185% on May 20, 2025.
The concerns around Japan's sovereign bond market inspired institutions to reconsider Bitcoin's role as a hedge against sovereign default risks, according to Bitwise's head of European research, André Dragosch.
'Perceived default risk continues rising, yields continue rising? This is a rough benchmark of why Bitcoin could be heading toward $200,000,' Dragosch told Cointelegraph, adding that Bitcoin is 'free from counterparty risk.'
Government bonds are typically considered safe-haven assets. But when yields rise sharply, it often signals investor concerns about fiscal sustainability and repayment risk.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/boj-june-introduce-qe-next-bitcoin-catalyst-arthur-hayes
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