Why it is a mistake to recognize a Palestinian state

Globe and Mail

3 days ago

Canada's decision to recognize Palestinian statehood is a grave mistake, for several reasons.
First, it rewards terrorism. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is wrong about many things, but he is right about that.
Palestinian advocates have argued for years that the major Western powers should grant recognition to a sovereign Palestine, as many other countries already have. The Western powers have always balked, arguing that formal recognition should come only after a final peace settlement. Now France, Britain and Canada have agreed. They are the first members of the G7 club of rich, democratic nations to take this momentous step.
Hamas can now argue that its Oct. 7 attack on Israel won Palestinians the prize that has eluded them for so long. It drew the Israelis into a devastating counterattack that blackened their reputation. Gaza may be in ruins, its people in misery, but some of Israel's most powerful friends have turned against the Jewish state. Murder works. Yahya Sinwar, the Oct. 7 mastermind later killed in Gaza, would be pleased.
Second, it chokes off the opportunity for a negotiated agreement. The template for that has always been land for peace. Israel ends its occupation, the Palestinians acknowledge Israel's right to live in peace, the world gives its blessing to the new state of Palestine. Though the prospect of such a deal seems remote now, it is still the best route to a lasting solution.
Analysis: Movement to recognize Palestinian statehood reflects Israel's growing isolation
This pre-empts it. What leverage do Canada and its partners possess now, having granted the Palestinians their long-sought reward in advance?
Third, it recognizes something that does not exist, at least not yet. Recognition usually comes when a new country has a functioning government that exercises effective control over a coherent territory. The state that Canada is about to recognize is divided into separate pieces: the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, one torn by war, the other in turmoil. Two mutually hostile groups are vying to rule that notional state. One, Hamas, is a violent Islamist movement whose leadership has been decimated; the other, the Palestinian Authority, is stagnant, unpopular and corrupt.
Neither has faced the voters in years. Both lack all democratic legitimacy. Mahmoud Abbas, the weak and discredited PA leader, has held power since 2005. He will soon turn 90.
Prime Minister Mark Carney says he has the personal assurance of Mr. Abbas that the leader will hold proper elections next year. Canada's decision to recognize a Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly in September is 'predicated' on that pledge. Predicated on, but not conditional on. Canada won't wait to see whether Mr. Abbas actually holds a free vote, as he has often promised to do in the past. Mr. Carney will just take his word.
Explainer: What does Canada's recognition of a Palestinian state mean in practice?
So, Canada's decision rewards terrorism, reduces the chances of a negotiated settlement and recognizes a state that does not exist.
Apart from all that, it will almost certainly fail to achieve its immediate goal. The three allies seem to think that recognizing Palestinian statehood will jolt Israel into seeing just how disgusted and furious the international community is with its conduct of the war in Gaza. The hope is that Israel's leaders will come to their senses, declare an immediate ceasefire and stop blocking the road to the creation of a free Palestine.
More likely, the gesture will push Israel's right-wing government into a corner, making it even less willing to listen. It is determined to thwart the emergence of a Palestinian state, which it is convinced would become another Gaza: an extremist-run terror state on Israel's doorstep. All the finger wagging from Paris, London and Ottawa is not going to change its mind.
Nor will the move have much effect on Hamas, which continues to insist on keeping its arms, its hostages and its political control of Gaza despite all the suffering the recent conflict has brought – suffering it caused by attacking Israel and prolongs to this day by refusing to give ground at the bargaining table. If anything, this will embolden its hard-liners.
Canada, like most of the world, would like to end Gaza's agony and bring the war to a quick conclusion. Unfortunately, Ottawa's empty gesture might have exactly the opposite effect.