Syrian government forces leave Suwayda following ceasefire
Syrian government forces have begun to leave Suwayda following a ceasefire agreement with Druze leaders. Al Jazeera's Zeina Khodr is on the outskirts of the city where she explains the security situation is still precarious.
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Al Jazeera
4 hours ago
- Al Jazeera
Why is Taiwan holding a ‘Great Recall' vote?
Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party is in a moment of crisis as nearly two-thirds of its legislators risk losing their posts through a mass referendum. Starting this weekend, voters across 31 districts in Taiwan will weigh in on whether they want to keep or remove their members of parliament. The 'Great Recall', as it has been dubbed locally, is the largest vote of its kind in Taiwan's history and, depending on the results, could cost the KMT its majority coalition in the country's legislature. The outcome will set the tone for Taiwan's domestic politics for the next three years and also shape the ability of President William Lai Ching-te's government to act on key issues, such as defence spending. On Saturday, eligible voters can participate in recall votes for 24 KMT legislators, followed by a second round of voting for seven KMT legislators in late August. The recall has been called following a wave of successful petition campaigns earlier this year. Under Taiwan's election laws, organisers must secure signatures from 10 percent of a district's registered voters to hold a recall vote. For a recall vote to succeed, 25 percent of registered voters in each district must participate, and the recall must receive more votes in favour than against. If voters choose to recall a legislator, a by-election must be held within three months. The KMT's traditional stronghold is in the north of the country and notably around the capital city of Taipei, but recall votes will be held across Taiwan this weekend. The KMT won 52 out of 113 seats in the legislature in 2024, and with the Taiwan People's Party and two independent legislators, holds a 62-seat majority coalition. That coalition has been strong enough to block the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which holds 51 seats, and stall the agenda of the country's DPP President Lai during his first year in office. Taiwan typically has high voter turnout during major elections, but recall votes are much more of a wildcard, said Lev Nachman, an expert in Taiwanese politics at National Taiwan University. 'Our prior experience should tell us that these should not pass. However, we've never seen mobilisation work like this at recalls before,' he told Al Jazeera, citing the widespread involvement of common people. 'We are in a bit of unprecedented times.' Ho Chih-yung, KMT member and former party spokesperson, told Al Jazeera the recall campaign had created a 'national election-like atmosphere' that would test the mobilisation and engagement of Taiwan's major political parties. The weather could also tip the scales, he said, as a tropical storm is passing north of Taiwan, and the bad weather may discourage the KMT's older voter base from going out to vote. The vote will determine if Lai will be a lame-duck president for the next three years, and whether he has the ability to carry out key defence and foreign policy initiatives, Nachman said. 'Unfortunately, it's a really big deal because every question that foreign policy people have is contingent upon whether these recalls are successful or not successful,' he said. The issue carries global significance due to Taiwan's contested political status and the threat of a future conflict involving China in the Taiwan Strait. 'The classic Taiwan problem is that it's not just that society is split, it's that society is split, and the clock is ticking about whether or not there's going to be a war over this place,' he added. 'Everything here is infinitely more existential.' Despite its success in the last election, picking up 14 seats, the KMT has angered voters and even alienated traditional supporters by trying to expand legislative powers and targeting President Lai's budget. The KMT majority in the legislature was able to freeze or cut 207.5 billion New Taiwan dollars (then worth $6.3bn) from Lai's 2025 budget – impacting everything from Taiwan's submarine and drone programmes to its Council of Indigenous Peoples. The budget fight was headline news across Taiwan, but it piqued international interest when the KMT targeted $3.1bn in defence spending. Brian Hoie, a non-resident fellow at the University of Nottingham's Taiwan Research Hub and a frequent commentator on Taiwanese politics, said some of the cuts angered a cross-section of voters and groups traditionally aligned with the KMT, such as farmers and Indigenous voters. 'The KMT has done very badly and angered all these random demographics by cutting the budget,' he said. 'That was just very unstrategic,' he added. The KMT is one of the oldest political parties in Asia, but a generational divide over Taiwan's relationship with China is challenging its longstanding position in Taiwanese politics. Some voters believe that the party has been co-opted by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing. The CCP has threatened to one day annex Taiwan by peace or by force, and Taiwan's two main political parties offer different approaches for how to respond to Beijing's threat. President Lai's DPP has taken a more outspoken approach by advocating for Taiwan on the international stage and ramping up defence spending, while the KMT follows a more conciliatory approach that favours ongoing dialogue with China. Fears surrounding China have in the past unseated some of the KMT's most prominent members, such as party whip Fu Kun-chi, who controversially led a delegation of lawmakers to Beijing last year at a time of significant political tension in the Taiwan Strait. Party member and former KMT spokesperson Ho said the recall supporters were abusing a system designed to remove individuals deemed unfit for holding their posts for serious reasons, such as corruption. 'This 'mass recall' campaign is not driven by the individual performance of KMT legislators, but is instead a blanket attempt to unseat opposition lawmakers across the board,' Ho said. 'To advance this effort, the DPP has deliberately framed the KMT as 'pro-China' and accused it of 'selling out Taiwan', a tactic designed to inflame ideological divisions and mobilise its base through fear and hostility, thereby increasing the likelihood that the recall votes will pass,' he said. A senior KMT party member also told Al Jazeera that voters may be looking for an outlet for their frustrations amid a rising cost of living and the economic stress resulting from United States President Donald Trump's trade war and threat of tariffs on Taiwan. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of up to 32 percent on the island-nation's export-driven economy. Over the past six months, the New Taiwan dollar has appreciated 11 percent, impacting the bottom line of thousands of small and medium domestic manufacturers who must compete with foreign goods becoming cheaper for Taiwan's consumers as their dollars go further in terms of spending power.
Al Jazeera
10 hours ago
- Al Jazeera
Could Israel be planning a second war on Iran?
Israel's leadership views its 12-day war with Iran last month as a success – several Iranian military leaders were killed, Iran's defensive military capabilities were weakened, and the United States was convinced to take part in a raid on the Iranian nuclear site at Fordow. But while Israeli leaders were quick to claim victory, they emphasised that they were ready to attack again if necessary, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying he had 'no intention of easing off the gas pedal'. And Israel is already looking for the next opportunity to wage another devastating conflict aimed at bringing down the Islamic Republic in Iran, analysts told Al Jazeera. However, to do so, it would require the 'permission' of the US, which may not be willing to give it. Back in mid-June, a surprise Israeli attack led to the war, in which more than 1,000 Iranians and 29 Israelis were killed. Israel justified the war by claiming that it was acting preemptively and in 'self-defence' to take out Iran's nuclear programme, which Tehran has long said is for civilian purposes. Speaking to Al Jazeera earlier this week, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed doubt over how long the current ceasefire will remain in place. 'We are fully prepared for any new Israeli military move, and our armed forces are ready to strike deep inside Israel again,' he said. Cause for war Despite Israel's emphasis that it was targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, it mainly assassinated high-ranking government and military officials, indicating a clear attempt to weaken and possibly bring down the regime. Trita Parsi, an expert on Iran and the cofounder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, a left-wing US think tank, believes Netanyahu is looking for an opportunity to resume that mission. 'The reason the Israelis want to attack again … is because they want to make sure they turn Iran into the next Syria or Lebanon – countries Israel can attack anytime with impunity,' he told Al Jazeera. Israel's next opportunity to muster up a pretext for a war could come after European countries reimpose debilitating sanctions on Iran. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is reported to have held a call with his counterparts from Germany, France and the United Kingdom earlier in July, in which they agreed that United Nations Security Council sanctions would be reimposed if a new nuclear deal was not agreed upon by the end of August. The sanctions had been lifted when Iran and several Western countries agreed on a nuclear deal in 2015. The US pulled out of that deal two years into President Donald Trump's first term in 2018 and restored sanctions as part of a maximum pressure campaign. Now, European parties to the deal could do the same, and that could prompt Iran to walk out of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, warned Parsi. 'That would provide [Israel] with a political window to [attack again],' he told Al Jazeera. Meir Javedanfar, Iran lecturer at Israel's Reichman University, added that Israel would nevertheless have to muster up or present credible intelligence that suggests Iran is rebuilding or repairing its nuclear programme. He warned that, 'to launch such an attack, Israel would need the agreement of the United States and its President Trump', permission he regarded as less likely in light of US concern over Israeli attacks on Syria. Israeli operations While Israeli strikes on Iran may not be imminent, a report in The New York Times on Wednesday suggests that it is carrying out covert operations responsible for sudden explosions and fires across the country. The paper cited three informed officials and a European diplomat who attributed the apparently random fires and explosions at apartment complexes, oil refineries, near an airport and a shoe factory, to acts of sabotage likely carried out by Israel. 'I think Benjamin Netanyahu has found a formula where it is able to attack Iran with impunity despite pushback from Donald Trump,' said Negar Mortazavi, an expert on Iran with the Center for International Policy (CIP), a think tank based in Washington, DC. Any ongoing covert operations are a result of Israel's extensive infiltration of Iranian security and infrastructure that became apparent during the early stages of the June conflict, with individuals targeted through what was presumed to be teams of local intelligence operatives and drones launched against Iranian targets from within Iranian territory. There was no evidence to suggest that Israel's network within Iran had ended with the war, analyst and Iran expert Ori Goldberg said. 'Israel has built a robust [security] system within Iran and, like all such systems, its muscles need flexing occasionally,' he said from Tel Aviv. 'Sometimes this isn't for strategic reasons, so much as tactical ones. As soon as you have infrastructure or people in place within another country, you have a limited time to use them, so if that's setting fires or setting detonations, it's a way of keeping them active and letting Iran know they're there.' Likelihood of new war Few could have predicted the complete absence of restraint with which Netanyahu, previously a figure considered to be somewhat averse to conflict, has attacked neighbouring states, Syria and Lebanon, as well as regional actors, such as Yemen and Iran, while maintaining his brutal assault upon Gaza. But while a renewed offensive upon Israel's historical bogeyman, Iran, might prove popular in the face of growing internal division over Israel's war on Gaza, how well received it might be by his principal ally remains to be seen. 'Trump is a concern and Israel will want to keep on the right side of whatever line he's drawn [on its actions],' Goldberg said. 'But Iran is a consensus issue within Israel. People might argue about Gaza, but never Iran. If Netanyahu feels himself under threat, he's going to want to crack the Iranian whip and unify people behind him.' Iran, for its part, won't be caught flat-footed a second time, say analysts. Mortazavi told Al Jazeera that Iran is expecting Israel to continue its aggression, even as it still holds out hope to reach a deal on its nuclear programme through diplomacy. 'I think they know that a deal will reduce the chances of an Israeli attack,' she said.
Al Jazeera
13 hours ago
- Al Jazeera
US, Israel recall teams from Gaza ceasefire talks after Hamas proposal
United States special envoy Steve Witkoff has said he is cutting short talks aimed at reaching a truce in Israel's war on Gaza, after the latest proposal from Hamas showed 'a lack of desire to reach a ceasefire'. Witkoff made the announcement in a statement on Thursday, just hours after the office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had also recalled its negotiating team from Qatar amid the latest diplomatic flurry. There was no immediate comment from Hamas. The group has repeatedly accused Israel of blocking a ceasefire agreement. Earlier in the day, Hamas had submitted its latest response to a ceasefire framework floated by mediators Qatar, Egypt and the US. Netanyahu's office confirmed receipt of the response, and said it was under review. Neither side disclosed the contents. Both Israel and Hamas are facing growing international pressure to reach an agreement as the humanitarian and hunger crisis in the territory continues to deteriorate sharply amid Israel's severe restrictions on the entry of aid. At least 115 people have died from malnutrition since Israel launched its war on Gaza in October 2023, mostly in recent weeks, as the United Nations and aid agencies have warned that Gaza's residents were facing mass starvation. 'While the mediators have made a great effort, Hamas does not appear to be coordinated or acting in good faith,' Witkoff said in a statement. 'We will now consider alternative options to bring the hostages home and try to create a more stable environment for the people of Gaza,' Witkoff said, without elaborating. Witkoff, a businessman with no formal diplomatic experience prior to his appointment, said the US remains 'resolute' in seeking an end to the war in Gaza, adding it was 'a shame that Hamas has acted in this selfish way'. The current proposal under discussion has been reported to include a 60-day ceasefire in which Hamas would release 10 living captives and the remains of 18 others. In turn, Palestinians imprisoned by Israel would be released and aid supplies would be ramped up as the two sides held negotiations on a lasting truce. Details of the current sticking point were not immediately clear, but officials from both sides have previously pointed to a dispute over what would happen in the wake of any new ceasefire. Israel has repeatedly said it plans to deploy the military long term in Gaza, seeking a complete defeat of Hamas, despite warnings that such a goal is unrealistic. Earlier this month, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz reportedly laid out a plan for the forced transfer of Palestinians to a 'humanitarian city' within Gaza, a maximalist approach that critics say would violate international law. Israel's government has also faced domestic pressure over the plan, amid fears it would foreclose ceasefire negotiations and block the release of captives still held in Gaza. Reporting from Washington, DC, Al Jazeera's Shihab Rattansi said it remained unclear whether the US withdrawal from the talks was a 'negotiating tactic'. 'It's a very sternly worded tweet, talking about 'alternative options for a more stable environment for the people of Gaza,'' he said. 'We know that Trump simply hasn't ruled out ethnic cleansing, so-called 'self deportation', in his words, of Palestinians.' 'Right now, we simply don't know whether it's a negotiating position or the end of the negotiations,' Rattansi said. Israel's war in Gaza has killed at least 59,587 Palestinians since it began in the wake of the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, which killed at least 1,139 people. This week, more than 100 aid groups blamed Israel's restrictions on aid for 'mass starvation' in the enclave.
