England or Spain? Brown-Finnis' Euro 2025 final prediction
Final
27 July, 17:00 BSTSt Jakob-Park, BaselWorld ranking: 5th v 2ndBest previous Euros finish: England - winners 2022. Spain - semi-finals 1997.Watch live on BBC One, iPlayer and the BBC Sport website; live commentary on Radio 5 Live and BBC Sounds.England will know they can play much better than they did in their quarter-final and semi-final wins over Sweden and Italy, and success on Sunday is a matter of them bringing their best game from the first second to the last.Against a team as good as Spain, they cannot afford any defensive mistakes - they have to be absolutely watertight at the back.Germany defended superbly against Spain in their semi-final and goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger had a brilliant tournament. But she made one mistake at the very end and that was all it took for them to go out.Spain have so many world-class players and arguably the best in Aitana Bonmati, that they can take advantage of any error.England won't be afraid of them, though. There is no chance of that.From the outside, beating the world champions might seem like a daunting task. Spain were the better side when they beat the Lionesses in the 2023 World Cup final and they have won 10 games in a row - a run that includes victory over England the last time they met, in June.But Spain's last defeat, in February, came against the Lionesses at Wembley. Having a recent result like that to lean on for reassurance is huge ahead of an occasion like this.I look back at that game and think England can do it this time too - and the players will 100% believe it as well.
Germany showed England the way?
Rewatching Germany's semi-final against Spain would be the perfect preparation for England, certainly in terms of seeing a system that will allow them to get at their opponents.Germany were well organised at the back but also created a number of chances too. England need to do exactly the same to squeeze Spain, but then be more clinical when they get their own opportunities, which they will.It's quite easy to see where Spain's vulnerability could be - they play a high line at the back so you can hurt them with quick attacks and pace in behind.So, you are looking at the pace of Chloe Kelly and Lauren Hemp being key for the Lionesses, with Alessia Russo making fast forward runs as well.Goalkeeper Hannah Hampton can play a part too, if you remember the goal England scored against the Netherlands in the group stage, where she played a long ball to Russo who set up Lauren James for a stunning strike from the edge of the area.
We have seen already how goalkeepers have often been the players who have decided the tightest of matches, whether in penalty shootouts or open play, so Hampton's overall performance is likely to be crucial if England are going to win.She has been solid so far at these Euros - brilliant with her feet and very good with her hands. Hampton has commanded her area too and seems to be gaining confidence with every match.If it comes down to a battle between her and Spain's Cata Coll, I would back Hampton all the way.I want to see Coll tested, because I don't think that has happened much so far in Switzerland - Spain have not come under too much pressure in any of their games.One way of doing that would be with our set-piece deliveries. Spain have looked a little rusty when they have faced them and I would not be surprised if a free-kick or corner leads to an England goal on Sunday.
The verdict?
I have said England will win Euro 2025 from the start and I am not changing my mind now.I've not just been backing them blindly as they have gone through the tournament either. They've essentially been playing knockout football since losing their opening group game to France, but have had the mentality to solve every problem they have faced.Their progress has not exactly been straightforward but Sarina Wiegman keeps coming up with a way of winning, and I believe she will do the same against Spain.It is going to be extremely close, of course, because there is so little between the two teams, but I think the Lionesses will win by one goal.After needing penalties in the quarter-finals and extra-time in the semi-finals, this time I can see them getting the job done in 90 minutes.Brown-Finnis' prediction: 2-1
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