New data show the US's immigrant population declining dramatically. Is it true?

USA Today

2 days ago

The monthly Current Population Survey shows a dramatic drop but the data is less reliable than other Census tools.
The country's immigrant population may have dropped by roughly 2 million people in the first six months of the year, according to new government data.
The new data offer an early – if imperfect – signal that President Donald Trump's immigration crackdown may already be showing an impact.
Steven Camarota, director of research at the right-leaning Center for Immigration Studies said the estimated decline of 2.2 million foreign-born people in the Current Population Survey was the largest such drop in a single year in three decades.
Either "something has fundamentally changed in America, or the response rate has dramatically changed," he said.
Demographers say it might be both – but either way, the new data has significant limits.
Jed Kolko, senior fellow at the non-partisan Peterson Institute for International Economics, cautioned that "there aren't other current data that can corroborate this enormous estimated decline."
"Even with fewer immigrants coming to the U.S. and more people leaving or being deported, an annual rate of 4 million is an extraordinary number that is way outside the range of immigration estimates that leading researchers have made," said Kolko, who served as Undersecretary of Commerce under President Joe Biden.
Is the data accurate?
The Census surveys 60,000 households every month for the Current Population Survey, which tracks fluctuations in population. That compares to the less frequent, but more reliable, American Community Survey, which is underpinned by interviews with 2 million households.
Because it's smaller, the population survey may occasionally overstate, or understate, population shifts, and demographers say it could be years before a full picture emerges.
Julia Gelatt, associate director of U.S. immigration policy at the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute, said the monthly survey "is a really important and helpful tool, but one of its flaws is that it has a small sample size."
The monthly survey data, produced in conjunction with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has shown "increased volatility" in native-born and foreign-born populations in recent years, according to the Census Bureau, and isn't designed to measure immigration levels.
Are immigrants afraid to answer accurately?
Between the Trump administration's sprawling crackdown on illegal immigration and the onslaught of zero-tolerance messaging, it's possible that some survey respondents are now too scared to tell the government whether they or members of their household are immigrants.
That could lead to an undercount, Gelatt said.
"Because of the atmosphere – the mass deportation campaigns, the constant announcements – immigrants might be more reticent," she said. "They may be afraid to say they are a noncitizen."
Migration surged after the pandemic
The post-pandemic wave of immigrants contributed to the country's fastest population growth in more than two decades.
In December, the Census Bureau announced it had updated its methodology to better measure the wave of migration to the United States that followed the global COVID-19 pandemic.
More than 7 million people immigrated to the United States between April 2020 and June 2024, according to the Census Bureau – a "net" estimate that subtracts all the foreign-born people who left during the period.
Years of surging migration to the United States angered millions of Americans, who saw failed border security in the masses of asylum-seekers awaiting processing at the U.S.-Mexico border during the Biden administration.
Reversing the migration trend
During his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump vowed to reverse the trend.
He promised to deport 1 million immigrants this year, and his administration has employed aggressive tactics to deliver on it: from a plan to hire 10,000 more deportation agents, to using military aircraft to return immigrants to their home countries, to terminating immigrants' right to post bond when they are detained.
Although deportations have increased, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement data suggest the number may fall well short of 1 million this year.
ICE has reported 246,000 removals so far this fiscal year, which began in October 2024 and ends Sept. 30 and includes more than three months of data under the Biden administration.
But some other immigrants, here legally or illegally, have chosen to return voluntarily to their home countries. If the population survey is an accurate count, it would represent a mass exodus.
"The trend has been down, down, down – which we normally never see," Camarota said.
Lauren Villagran can be reached at [e-mail].