New study targets past flooding as key to helping property owners assess climate threats
The study, published Monday in the journal Earth's Future, found that 43% of flooded buildings in North Carolina between 1996 and 2020 were located outside the Federal Emergency Management Agency's Special Flood Hazard Area — areas that FEMA projects have a 1% risk of flooding in a given year.
The findings could help more communities get a better handle on their flood risk and flood insurance needs, experts and authors of the study said. Flood insurance has become increasingly hard to get as some companies increase the price of policies or step back from insuring homes in certain markets due to more frequent and severe weather. That has left property owners more vulnerable.
Experts told NBC News that with access to the right data sources, databases like the one described in the study could be developed nationwide.
FEMA's maps are the main source nationally to identify flood-prone areas and what structures need to be insured. But experts say the system is outdated and has low resolution. The 100-year flood plain projection doesn't paint a complete picture of what areas are likely to flood. And climate change has rendered previously authoritative weather and climate projections less reliable, the authors noted.
The study's use of address-level data allowed the researchers to pinpoint specific buildings that had flooded more than once. That information could help property owners know whether they should be purchasing flood insurance even outside of FEMA's flood hazard zones, experts said. In the U.S., 99% of counties have flooded at least once but only 4% of homeowners have flood insurance, according to FEMA.
'More information about where it has flooded in the past could help people make different decisions,' said Helena Margaret Garcia, the lead author of the study and a doctoral student at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill.
FEMA and the National Flood Insurance Program did not return requests for comment.
FEMA is currently in the process of redeveloping its flood mapping system, through an initiative called the Future of Flood Risk Data, that it says will provide a more comprehensive look at flood hazards and risks in the country using more efficient, accurate and consistent technology.
As the planet warms, heavier rainfall is becoming more common because hotter air can hold more moisture, which later falls as rain. Climate change is also leading to a rise in global sea levels, which has made coastal and even some inland areas more vulnerable to flooding. Hurricane Helene, the third-deadliest hurricane of the modern era, caused severe flooding in mountainous areas in the middle of North Carolina. Damage totaled more than $78 billion, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Severe rainfall has caused flash floods to rip through towns across the U.S. in the last two weeks, most recently on Monday in New Jersey and New York City. Extreme floods resulted in at least six deaths in North Carolina and more than 100 deaths in Texas. Flash floods are the top storm-related killer in the U.S. resulting in an average of 125 deaths per year in the last few decades, according to the National Weather Service
A North Carolina climatologist said warmer ocean waters, which also feed storms, could have been a factor in fueling last week's Tropical Storm Chantal, which broke rainfall and river-crest records in the state.
With the changing climate, having access to up-to-date maps is crucial, experts say.
For the study, researchers mapped 78 flood events between 1996 and 2020 using data from the National Flood Insurance Program — the FEMA program through which property owners can purchase insurance for potential flood-related losses. They also used emergency service requests and 'volunteered geographic information,' which they acquired through social media posts, to create what they describe as a 'first of its kind' database. Data on past floods is often difficult for the general public to access, which can make it challenging for homeowners to know whether their property has previously flooded, experts said.
Garcia said researchers can use the same methods from the study to create similar historical maps for regions across the nation to help officials identify areas in their state they may not have previously thought of as a flood risk.
While the study found that only 20,000 of the 90,000 buildings flooded more than once — more than double the number of buildings that filed NFIP claims — authors of the study are working on research to quantify its human impact. Some are looking at health outcomes, including how a flood might interrupt people's health care, and others looking into the quantity of displacement due to the repetitive flooding, Garcia said.
Antonia Sebastian, an assistant professor in the department of geological sciences at UNC-Chapel Hill, said the study aims to create a 'comprehensive record of past flooding' by gathering data on flood events that don't make the biggest headlines but still have an impact on homeowners.
'Places that have flooded before will flood again. It's just a matter of time,' Sebastian said. 'And those are all risky places.'
Chad Berginnis, the executive director of the Association of Flood Plain Managers who wasn't involved in the study, said FEMA's maps are designed to implement the NFIP by determining what areas have to purchase flood insurance, using the 100-year flood plain as a guide. He said the study's analysis of historical flooding highlights that officials may need to require flood insurance in areas outside of FEMA's flood hazard zone.
'FEMA flood maps are a starting point and not an end point,' Berginnis said. 'They will show you one kind of flood risk, but if you want a total perception of flood risk, one of the things you got to do is find historical flood information.'
He said replicating similar database models as the one described in the study in other local areas could help flood plain managers increase awareness among their communities about who is at risk of flooding by pinpointing where it has occurred previously.
'Just given the flood history of [the Guadalupe River], and having a daughter of the age that's going to camps too, I mean, this is really hitting home to me. You know, how is it that we, that societally, we're not comprehending that these same locations can also be very risky areas and not either demanding or finding out a little bit more about it. So, I think clearly we don't have enough awareness of flood risks.'
June Choi, a doctoral student in earth system science at Stanford University who was not part of the study, said the finding that many flooded buildings were located outside of at-risk areas designated by FEMA's flood maps is likely the case across all states. The new database may be limited because it doesn't factor in how building density changes over time. But its use of historical records and address-specific data still make it a valuable resource for assessing future flood risk, she said.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
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Newsweek
a day ago
- Newsweek
Map Shows Where 100-Year Floods Have Hit Across the US Over Past Year
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The term "100-year flood" implies that the event is a rare occurrence; however, dozens of such storms have inundated the United States over the past year alone, prompting concern that they are occurring more frequently as the Earth's climate continues to warm. Why It Matters Flooding is the second-deadliest weather hazard in the U.S., next to extreme heat. Devastating flood events have made headlines numerous times this year, including a 1,000-year atmospheric river event that hit the Midwest and South in April and the deadly floods that inundated Central Texas over the July 4th weekend. The frequency of such flooding rainstorms, which often go hand-in-hand with death and destruction, is alarming. What's even more concerning is that AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva told Newsweek that these events are happening more frequently. What To Know In 2024, dozens of 100-year rainstorms struck the U.S. Each point is marked on the map below, created by Colorado State University. The points marking each event are widespread, with only a few states escaping unscathed. Last year wasn't a one-time occurrence, either. This year is also "shaping up to be one of the most flood-impacted summers on record in the United States," AccuWeather reported. A map from Colorado State University shows where 100-year rainstorm events were documented in 2024. A map from Colorado State University shows where 100-year rainstorm events were documented in 2024. Colorado State University What Is a 100-Year Flood? The United States Geological Service (USGS) describes the term "100-year flood" as an attempt "to simplify the definition of a flood that statistically has a 1-percent chance of occurring in any given year." Where Did 100-Year Rainstorms Hit in 2024? On the CSU map, countless points pepper the Eastern Seaboard around North Carolina and South Carolina after Hurricane Helene struck in September. Others show the devastating impact of the summer monsoon season in New Mexico, which caused deserts to flood and cars to become stranded as water washed over a highway. Vermont faced catastrophic floods in late July. Central Texas, known as Flash Flood Alley, experienced several 100-year rainstorms last year, as did Florida, with a scattershot of points dated as occurring during the Atlantic hurricane season. There was also an onslaught of precipitation that hit South Dakota in June 2024, as well as a similar storm that measured as a 100-year event at several locations in Missouri in November, among others. Only a few states emerged unscathed, including Iowa, Wisconsin, Oregon, Washington, and Massachusetts, but most of the U.S. experienced some form of severe flooding precipitation last year. Why Are 100-Year Floods Occurring More Frequently? The map's creator, Russ Schumacher, a professor of atmospheric sciences at CSU and a CSU climatologist, told Newsweek that improved technology, such as radar, provides better access to data, which can make it seem as if the flood events are happening more frequently. However, he also stressed the impact of climate change. "The physics of climate change tells us that we should see these extreme events more frequently," he said. As the atmosphere grows warmer through global warming, its ability to hold moisture increases, DaSilva told Newsweek. "This is why in the wintertime, we typically don't see too much flash flooding in the wintertime," DaSilva said. "It's too cold, and there's snow, of course, but it's hard to get the moisture content you need for heavy rain events in the wintertime because it's cooler out. In the summertime obviously the temperature is above freezing, but the atmosphere can hold more water content. There's more moisture to squeeze out." Which States Have Increased Flood Risk? As the atmosphere's ability to hold moisture increases, DaSilva told Newsweek that states in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys are becoming wetter, while areas like California are becoming drier. What People Are Saying AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva told Newsweek: "When the atmosphere is getting warmer as a what it's doing is making summer warmer and the shoulder seasons warmer as well. What's happening is those seasons, especially in the summertime, the [atmosphere's] ability to hold more moisture is going up as well." DaSilva added: "It doesn't guarantee we will see more rain over a certain area, it rains, it's going to rain heavier." The USGS in a webpage about 100-year flood events: "In other words, over the course of 1 million years, these events would be expected to occur 10,000 times. But, just because it rained 10 inches in one day last year doesn't mean it can't rain 10 inches in one day again this year." What Happens Next As the probability of heavy rain events increases, people are advised to have a flood plan in place before such an event occurs in their area. People should also never drive on a flooded roadway, as most flood-related deaths occur in vehicles.


Chicago Tribune
5 days ago
- Chicago Tribune
Conservation practices needed to protect Illinois farmers as topsoil loss increases, experts say
As the deadline approaches for Congress to renew the U.S. Farm Bill, agricultural experts and farmers are calling on legislators to prioritize protecting topsoil in the Midwest and throughout the country, especially as the federal government is withdrawing from conservation initiatives. Topsoil is eroding, on average, at a rate of three-quarters of an inch per year in the Midwest, a rate double what the U.S. Department of Agriculture considers sustainable, according to a 2022 study published in the journal Earth's Future. The study also concluded more than 57 billion metric tons of topsoil have eroded in the Midwest over the last 160 years. 'Not to sound alarmist, but we rely and a lot of the world relies on the Midwest producing a lot of food,' said Evan Thaler, a geological researcher who helped author the study. 'Fertilizing crops can't keep up with the amount of productivity that's lost by erosion.' Topsoil contains living microorganisms and decaying plant roots that are important for productive crop growth. Excessive topsoil erosion can lead to a decrease in soil fertility levels and a decline in potential crop yields. No-till and reduced tillage farming, as well as cover crops, are among the best ways to counter topsoil erosion, experts say, especially as climate change has led to increased rainfall intensity. But under the Trump administration, federal support for these practices could be dramatically reduced. Some experts, including Andrew Margenot, an associate professor of crop sciences at the University of Illinois, have expressed skepticism about the figures in the study, particularly as they relate to erosion rates in Illinois. But Margenot called topsoil erosion a 'silent killer' whose worst effects may not become apparent for decades. Thaler said erosion rates aren't expected to be as severe in areas with flatter landscapes like much of Illinois. 'So it's not the whole landscape that's eroding quickly,' Thaler said of the Midwest. 'It's just portions of the landscape, but those portions of the landscape are eroding quite fast.' Regardless, experts agreed that excessive topsoil loss is an issue that poses long-term risks for the Midwest and requires assistance for farmers looking to implement conservation farming practices. 'It (erosion) is a way that we destroy really what is the best resource we have in this state,' Margenot said. 'We have a lot of wind, a lot of coal, etc., but we also have the best soils in the world.' Tillage clears crop residue from fields after harvesting and helps prepare the soil for seeding. The USDA notes that conventional tillage practices are most intensive on the soil and can increase the likelihood of erosion and nutrient runoff into waterways. In contrast, no-till and reduced tillage farming incorporate practices such as field mulching, crop rotation, as well as less-intensive tillage equipment. 'When they talk about 'conventional agricultural practices,' tillage is our No. 1 offender,' said Emily Hansen, a commercial agricultural educator with University of Illinois Extension. The 2018 Farm Bill — an omnibus bill that includes federal funding for conservation programs — is set to expire in September after having twice been extended by Congress. This reauthorization deadline comes after President Donald Trump immediately took steps to suspend funding under former President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act on his first day back in office. Billions of dollars earmarked under the act for farming conservation practices were frozen. This funding freeze came at a time when the impacts of topsoil erosion are becoming more apparent in Illinois. High winds over recently tilled farm fields likely contributed to a massive dust storm in May, the first to affect the Chicago area in 40 years. In 2023, a dust storm in central Illinois caused 84 vehicles to crash on I-55, killing eight people and injuring at least 36. Such incidents have helped to renew debates on agriculture's role in hazardous weather events and further discussions on the importance of topsoil conservation. Others emphasize that soil conservation is important for the long-term economic outlook of the U.S. Cash crops, hidden costs'For decades, we have rightly focused on protecting our most vulnerable soils,' said Garrett Hawkins, president of the Illinois Corn Growers Association, in a statement. 'However, IL Corn encourages decision makers to think differently, to consider how programs can better protect our most productive soils.' The association is a farmer-led organization that represents the interests of Illinois corn farmers in Washington, D.C., and Springfield. 'Conserving our most productive acres is essential if we want to stay competitive in global markets,' Hawkins said. 'Modernizing our approach to conservation and creating programs that empower farmers to protect their most valuable soils with flexible and scalable solutions is vital. If we fail to deliver effective programs, technical assistance, and meaningful funding to our farmers, soil health and soil erosion will continue to be a challenge.' The association developed the Precision Conservation Management program, which collects data and helps farmers adopt conservation practices. 'What they've found over the last five years of data is that the most profitable fields in Illinois are doing no tillage with soybeans and one pass or less with corn,' Hansen said. In most cases, she said, data has shown there isn't an economic or agricultural benefit for corn farmers to do more than one tillage pass over their fields. According to data from the University of Illinois, 46% of soybean fields in Illinois had adopted no-till during the years of 2015 to 2017 but only 13% of cornfields. Illinois is the No. 1 producer of soybeans in the U.S. and the No. 2 producer of corn. 'Corn is a lot more challenging and that's where we see people doing those multiple tillage passes,' Hansen said. 'Corn, it needs good contact with the soil, so you do have to do some amount of tillage with it. But you know more than one pass is probably overdoing it a bit.' Among the first to get involved with PCM was Dirk Rice, a corn and soybean farmer in Champaign County. Rice said the genesis of Precision Conservation Management was the desire to help address farmers' financial concerns when adopting conservation practices. 'If you want a farmer to shift away from a practice that he knows has worked for him for 20, 30 years, there's always a concern of 'How does that affect me, financially?'' Rice said. 'And so the idea was, let's look financially at how farmers are doing this practice compared to this practice, compared to this practice,' he said. 'And I think after a decade or more of data, what we're seeing is the people that are doing less tillage are at least as profitable.' Rice, who said all of his soybean fields are no-till and over 80% of his corn fields are no-till or strip-till (a less intensive form of tillage), noted some difficulty in dealing with potential fungi that can grow in corn residue. He also said grain quality has declined in certain situations where he's no-tilled. Despite such challenges, Rice said soil conservation has been a tradition in his family for generations through practices like crop rotation, and it's a tradition he intends to continue. 'I'm sitting on ground my great-great-grandfather moved (to) in 1881,' Rice said. 'It's real personal to me that I leave that better than it was when I got here. And I think every generation in our family has felt the same way.' Rice added that fertilizer is a huge expense for his farm's operation and keeping soil nutrients in place helps with these costs and reduces runoff. 'Anything I can do to keep all my nutrients in place, that's how much less I got to turn around and buy next year or somewhere down the road. So that's a real no-brainer to me,' Rice said. Along with no-till and reduced tillage, cover crops — plants grown when the main cash crop isn't planted — can help keep topsoil 'anchored in place' and mitigate erosion and nutrient loss, Hansen said. She said cover crops such as cereal rye, which has a similar root structure to native prairie grasses, can help prevent nutrient and fertilizer runoff into streams and rivers that ultimately lead into the Gulf of Mexico. 'Cover crops have multiple benefits. They're tackling that erosion problem, they're tackling the nutrient loss,' Hansen said. 'So I like telling farmers to plant cover crops, but easier said than done.' Margenot noted that most farmland in Illinois is rented and not directly owned by the farmers who cultivate it, which can complicate efforts to plant cover crops. Less than a fourth of Illinois farmland is owned by the farmer who works the land, according to data from the Illinois Farm Business Farm Management, a nonprofit association that helps farmers make management decisions. 'They're not farmed by the owner, and a lot of times the landlord just wants a check,' Margenot said. 'They don't have a patience for cover crops because that digs into the net profit.' Margenot compared cover crops to adding another ball for a juggler and said they 'complicate the operation' for farmers. While great at reducing nitrate losses from fields, Margenot said, cover crops aren't 'that common in the Midwest,' especially in Illinois, because 'they don't really make you money.' 'When it comes to the bottom line, farms are businesses. They have mortgages to pay kids to send to college. Cover crops are not a great proposition,' Margenot said. 'I think they're great ecologically and I think that they, in the long term, probably have a positive ROI (return on investment) for the farm. But in the short term there's good evidence that cover crops aren't a great financial decision for a lot of operations.' Margenot said a comprehensive Farm Bill needs to incentivize farmers and landowners to plant cover crops given the associated costs and complications to farm operations. Thaler, the erosion study author, agreed. 'We need to be able to feed people,' he said. 'And unfortunately, if we don't start farming in a way that conserves our topsoil (and) really take approaches to allow farmers to experiment with conservation techniques, then I think we're going to be in some serious danger.' Among federal programs included in the Farm Bill is the Environmental Quality Incentives Program, which provides technical and financial assistance for farmers implementing conservation efforts. Jonathan Coppess, director of the Gardner Agriculture Policy Program at the University of Illinois, worked on legislation for the 2008 and 2014 Farms Bills. 'What EQIP does is the farmer goes out and takes on a practice that will reduce soil erosion, like a grass waterway for example so you get a washout spot in a field,' Coppess said. 'So the farmer will go out and get that done, and then about 75% of the expected cost of that would be reimbursed, if you will, by USDA through this EQIP program.' 'There's a lot of uncertainty around' the upcoming Farm Bill, Coppess said. 'There was a significant amount of funding provided by Congress in the Inflation Reduction Act, about $18 billion over multiple years for programs like EQIP, and the (Trump) administration froze a lot of that.' In April, a federal judge ordered the Trump administration to take immediate steps to reinstate this funding, citing a lack of authority on the part of the Departments of Energy, Housing and Urban Development, Interior and Agriculture, as well as the Environmental Protection Agency. Coppess described the short-term impacts of this funding freeze as 'potentially catastrophic' for farmers who spent money on conservation initiatives and who had expected reimbursement funding, especially if they had taken out a loan. 'If the administration eliminated whatever's remaining of that (Inflation Reduction Act) money, which may be as much as $12 billion, then over the long term that is a reduction in the investment in conservation,' Coppess said. 'We're investing in practices that will keep soil in the field, and get it out of the waterways, not have dust storms on the roads, those sort of things.' Coppess said 'every dollar that goes out the door' should have the priority focus of: 'Are we helping farmers deal with risk issues in farming that matter to the food supply?' Coppess said such an approach would require recalibrating crop insurance, repurposing subsidy funds for conservation and refocusing conservation funds on risk-based priorities; something he said wouldn't be easy and is 'a little idealistic for what we've seen in Congress recently.' Legislators need to focus more on how to address the long-term challenges faced by farmers, he said. 'Problem is that's not the conversation we're having,' Coppess said.


The Hill
19-07-2025
- The Hill
Without weather forecasters, our canaries in the storm, expect disaster
Before modern forecasting, hurricanes were mass casualty events. The 1900 Galveston Hurricane killed over 8,000 people, wiping out an entire city with a 15-foot storm surge. Less than a century ago, Hurricane Okeechobee killed over 2,500 Floridians in a tragedy that today would be largely preventable. We've come a long way since the days when hurricanes struck without warning. I know, because I helped develop the systems that save countless lives and give communities time to prepare. That was my job until February, when I was terminated by President Trump and Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency alongside hundreds of other scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Since then, I have continued my work in hurricane forecasting through Cooperative Institute research; however, the cuts left deep holes across NOAA's forecasting teams that've not been filled. This purge isn't 'cutting waste' — it is dismantling America's hurricane monitoring systems. At the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, I worked on the next-generation Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System. This system enabled emergency managers to issue timely evacuation orders during life-threatening hurricanes like Helene and Milton, helping prevent thousands of potential fatalities. Yet even with cutting-edge forecasting, Helene revealed new, urgent challenges. In the last decade, freshwater flooding surpassed storm surge as the leading cause of hurricane-related deaths. Helene's victims were coastal residents and mountain communities, caught unprepared by catastrophic inland flooding. Dozens more died — victims of power outages, delayed medical care and collapsed infrastructure in the days after the storm passed. If our warning systems don't evolve to keep pace with rapidly changing storms, Helene's damage may seem merciful compared to future disasters. Precisely when adaptation is most urgent, political decisions have systematically dismantled our protective infrastructure. Key vacancies remain across NOAA's local forecast offices, satellite operations and modeling teams — many of which are already stretched thin this hurricane season. Without continuous investment in modeling and surveillance, hurricane season, which officially began June 1, will become even deadlier and harder to predict. DOGE's decimation of the forecasting workforce unravels a century of progress in hurricane survival rates. While the full impact of these cuts won't be seen overnight, the damage will compound the longer these positions go unfilled. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration isn't just a research agency; it's America's first line of defense against natural disasters. Forecasting is the foundation of all response efforts. While scientists aren't knocking doors with evacuation orders ourselves, we're the ones telling first responders when, if, and whose doors they should knock on. When NOAA functions at full capacity, emergency managers have the tools they need to prepare their communities. NOAA's remaining scientists and National Weather Service forecasters will give their all this hurricane season to deliver the most accurate forecasts possible, but dedication can't make up for a system that's been hollowed out, and grit can only hold together this critical system for so long. Privatizing these forecasting services creates a dangerous 'pay-to-play' model for life-saving information. This approach wouldn't just create barriers for low-income families; it would hamstring small municipalities and volunteer emergency services trying to protect their communities. The private sector cannot fill this void. The National Weather Service processes over 6 billion observations daily and issues approximately 1.5 million forecasts and 50,000 warnings annually. No private entity possesses infrastructure that can match this scale and reliability. There is a better path forward. By recommitting to public science and restoring forecasters' positions, we can build systems that adapt to changing storms, accurately track flood zones and storm paths, and provide both inland and coastal communities with the advanced warning they need to stay safe. We owe this to every family who will face the next Helene or Milton. Congress must act urgently to restore NOAA's full operational capacity and reject all efforts to privatize these essential services. The FY26 federal budget proposes a $1.3 billion cut to NOAA's core operations, such as satellite programs essential to forecasting, programs supporting climate modeling and even public education. NOAA can't issue life-saving warnings if its data stream has gone dark. And the research that drives improvements in modeling and forecasting is threatened if some of the budget proposals come to fruition. There have been some positive developments from Congress. The House Republicans' fiscal 2026 Commerce-Justice-Science spending bill, announced on Monday, proposes a much-smaller cut of $387 million, bringing the NOAA budget to $5.8 billion. While it's a modest improvement, it still does not fully cover the financial needs of an agency tasked with protecting hundreds of millions of Americans. Hurricane forecasting shouldn't be treated like a luxury or a political football. It's public infrastructure that's as essential as our power grids or water systems. Storm surges don't check voter registrations before flooding homes, and hurricanes won't stop based on who occupies the White House. Without urgent action in this year's budget, we risk turning the worst-case scenario into reality. The question isn't whether the storms are coming. It's whether we'll be ready when they do.