‘Big Risk'—Surprise Bitcoin Price Crash Fear Emerges
Bitcoin has swung wildly over the last week as traders brace for a massive bitcoin and crypto market shock.
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The bitcoin price plummeted toward $100,000 per bitcoin at the beginning of the latest Israel-Iran conflict, with a serious Coinbase warning further weighing on the bitcoin price.
Now, after a bitcoin price rebound fails to hold despite a surprise crypto market prediction by U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent, analysts are warning that the rising risk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz key global oil market passage could spark a fresh round of crypto volatility.
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U.S. president Donald Trump has played down the chances of a peace deal between Israel and ... More Iran—something that's weighed on the bitcoin price and wider crypto market.
'There's still one big risk to watch out for: the Strait of Hormuz,' Tracy Jin, the chief operating officer of crypto exchange MEXC, said in emailed comments.
"About 20% of the world's oil (20 million barrels) goes through this narrow stretch of land, and any kind of conflict could lead to a sharp rise in energy prices. Experts are saying that the price of Brent could go above $115, which might add 70-90 basis points to inflation by the end of the year. That sort of supply shock would probably lead to a risk-off move, which would put pressure on both crypto and equities. As crypto trades become more and more linked to macro assets, bitcoin, which is often seen as 'macro beta' these days, is likely to see some fresh volatility."
Jin added that rising energy prices could also have a knock on effect to energy-hungry bitcoin miners who have to power and cool their computers to maintain the bitcoin network in exchange for freshly-minted bitcoin.
The odds of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz have spiked to around 40% on the crypto-powered prediction platform Polymarket over the last 24 hours as U.S. president Donald Trump plays down the chance of a peace deal between Israel and Iran.
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The bitcoin price has dipped after touching a fresh all-time high in May.
However, while the bitcoin price has swung along with stock markets over the last week, bitcoin and crypto analysts have said they believe it will continue to hold up if the fighting spirals into a wider regional conflict.
'Bitcoin will be resilient and any dips will be very shallow,' Markus Thielen, the chief executive of 10x Research, said in emailed comments.
'There is no indication that anybody would be willing to liquidate their bitcoin … even the long term holders are accumulating while normally we would see them to sell at this point.'
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