Ex-premier tips Liberal leadership change to avoid poll
Embattled premier Jeremy Rockliff has vowed to fight and win a snap election, but speculation is growing his Tasmanian Liberal colleagues will deny him the chance.
Tasmania's lower house passed a motion of no confidence in Mr Rockliff on Thursday, just 15 months into the minority government's four-year term.
The vote was an episode in spiralling political brinkmanship, with the premier warning opposition leader Dean Winter he would advise for an early election if his motion succeeded.
The prevailing political wisdom is the Rockliff government will lose an election, with veteran Liberal political operative Brad Stansfield saying they would be "annihilated" in a winter campaign.
However, parliament's dissolution is not due until after Tuesday, given the need to pass a stop-gap budget bill before the election campaign.
The delay across the King's Birthday long weekend gives the 17 members of the Liberal party room - including 14 who will put their seats at risk in a campaign - plenty of time to rethink their support for Mr Rockliff.
"It's probably 70 to 80 per cent likely that either over the weekend or following the appropriation bill going through on Tuesday, Jeremy won't be leader," former premier David Bartlett told AAP.
"It won't be a coup. It will be a smooth transition of power to a new leader and Jeremy will be under all sorts of pressure from internal Liberal party people to make that happen.
"I'm not even convinced Jeremy Rockliff wants to go to another election. He'd probably rather retire to the farm."
Mr Bartlett led a Labor government between 2008-2011, including the 2010 election which required him - like Mr Rockliff after the 2024 poll - to govern in minority.
He said there were no shortage of options for a new leader, who would need to organise support from enough crossbenchers to stave off an election.
"Eric Abetz is ambitious, Michael Ferguson still has a baton in the knapsack, Guy Barnett is ambitious and Madeleine Ogilvie is ambitious," he said.
Mr Stansfield, who has advised the Liberals to four straight election wins, said the Liberals' charge to an election was "lemming-like behaviour".
"They have willingly chosen to go to their own political execution rather than change their policies or change their leader in order to stay in power," he told the FontCast podcast.
Former Liberal Premier Will Hodgman attacked the vote of no confidence, saying it was "politically reckless, and seriously damaging to Tasmania's reputation" on social media.
AAP has spoken with multiple past and present MPs and advisers, who have confirmed Liberal MPs are privately canvassing options to topple Mr Rockliff and avoid an election.
Mr Stansfield - who confirmed dissenting voices in the partyroom over the election position - said Mr Rockliff's position was secure.
"The die is cast. They have chosen to follow their leader to an election that they will lose," he said.
Liberal senator for Tasmania Jonno Duniam was incredulous about the leadership speculation.
"They could choose to change leader - I'm not a part of that party room, I'm not going to tell them what to do," he told the ABC.
"This is nuts that we're going to an election."
Mr Rockliff on Friday travelled to his home region of the north-west coast, the same community which experienced the deaths of six children in a 2021 bouncy castle tragedy.
He opted against a public appearance, given it came on the same day a verdict was finally reached on workplace health and safety failings behind the incident.
"Today politics must be put aside. Another heart wrenching day, as we relive the trauma of the Hillcrest tragedy," he posted on social media.
After losing the no-confidence vote, Mr Rockliff gave an emotional address to parliament where he revealed he fought off internal opponents to stand by the billion-dollar Hobart waterfront stadium which would house a Tasmanian AFL team - but is unpopular with voters.
"I've been advised by all the hard-heads in my party not to go down that track. Why? Because it's bad for votes," he said.
"Well, I've always said 'stuff votes' ... I'll say it for the stadium for as long as I damn well live, because I believe in it."
Embattled premier Jeremy Rockliff has vowed to fight and win a snap election, but speculation is growing his Tasmanian Liberal colleagues will deny him the chance.
Tasmania's lower house passed a motion of no confidence in Mr Rockliff on Thursday, just 15 months into the minority government's four-year term.
The vote was an episode in spiralling political brinkmanship, with the premier warning opposition leader Dean Winter he would advise for an early election if his motion succeeded.
The prevailing political wisdom is the Rockliff government will lose an election, with veteran Liberal political operative Brad Stansfield saying they would be "annihilated" in a winter campaign.
However, parliament's dissolution is not due until after Tuesday, given the need to pass a stop-gap budget bill before the election campaign.
The delay across the King's Birthday long weekend gives the 17 members of the Liberal party room - including 14 who will put their seats at risk in a campaign - plenty of time to rethink their support for Mr Rockliff.
"It's probably 70 to 80 per cent likely that either over the weekend or following the appropriation bill going through on Tuesday, Jeremy won't be leader," former premier David Bartlett told AAP.
"It won't be a coup. It will be a smooth transition of power to a new leader and Jeremy will be under all sorts of pressure from internal Liberal party people to make that happen.
"I'm not even convinced Jeremy Rockliff wants to go to another election. He'd probably rather retire to the farm."
Mr Bartlett led a Labor government between 2008-2011, including the 2010 election which required him - like Mr Rockliff after the 2024 poll - to govern in minority.
He said there were no shortage of options for a new leader, who would need to organise support from enough crossbenchers to stave off an election.
"Eric Abetz is ambitious, Michael Ferguson still has a baton in the knapsack, Guy Barnett is ambitious and Madeleine Ogilvie is ambitious," he said.
Mr Stansfield, who has advised the Liberals to four straight election wins, said the Liberals' charge to an election was "lemming-like behaviour".
"They have willingly chosen to go to their own political execution rather than change their policies or change their leader in order to stay in power," he told the FontCast podcast.
Former Liberal Premier Will Hodgman attacked the vote of no confidence, saying it was "politically reckless, and seriously damaging to Tasmania's reputation" on social media.
AAP has spoken with multiple past and present MPs and advisers, who have confirmed Liberal MPs are privately canvassing options to topple Mr Rockliff and avoid an election.
Mr Stansfield - who confirmed dissenting voices in the partyroom over the election position - said Mr Rockliff's position was secure.
"The die is cast. They have chosen to follow their leader to an election that they will lose," he said.
Liberal senator for Tasmania Jonno Duniam was incredulous about the leadership speculation.
"They could choose to change leader - I'm not a part of that party room, I'm not going to tell them what to do," he told the ABC.
"This is nuts that we're going to an election."
Mr Rockliff on Friday travelled to his home region of the north-west coast, the same community which experienced the deaths of six children in a 2021 bouncy castle tragedy.
He opted against a public appearance, given it came on the same day a verdict was finally reached on workplace health and safety failings behind the incident.
"Today politics must be put aside. Another heart wrenching day, as we relive the trauma of the Hillcrest tragedy," he posted on social media.
After losing the no-confidence vote, Mr Rockliff gave an emotional address to parliament where he revealed he fought off internal opponents to stand by the billion-dollar Hobart waterfront stadium which would house a Tasmanian AFL team - but is unpopular with voters.
"I've been advised by all the hard-heads in my party not to go down that track. Why? Because it's bad for votes," he said.
"Well, I've always said 'stuff votes' ... I'll say it for the stadium for as long as I damn well live, because I believe in it."
Embattled premier Jeremy Rockliff has vowed to fight and win a snap election, but speculation is growing his Tasmanian Liberal colleagues will deny him the chance.
Tasmania's lower house passed a motion of no confidence in Mr Rockliff on Thursday, just 15 months into the minority government's four-year term.
The vote was an episode in spiralling political brinkmanship, with the premier warning opposition leader Dean Winter he would advise for an early election if his motion succeeded.
The prevailing political wisdom is the Rockliff government will lose an election, with veteran Liberal political operative Brad Stansfield saying they would be "annihilated" in a winter campaign.
However, parliament's dissolution is not due until after Tuesday, given the need to pass a stop-gap budget bill before the election campaign.
The delay across the King's Birthday long weekend gives the 17 members of the Liberal party room - including 14 who will put their seats at risk in a campaign - plenty of time to rethink their support for Mr Rockliff.
"It's probably 70 to 80 per cent likely that either over the weekend or following the appropriation bill going through on Tuesday, Jeremy won't be leader," former premier David Bartlett told AAP.
"It won't be a coup. It will be a smooth transition of power to a new leader and Jeremy will be under all sorts of pressure from internal Liberal party people to make that happen.
"I'm not even convinced Jeremy Rockliff wants to go to another election. He'd probably rather retire to the farm."
Mr Bartlett led a Labor government between 2008-2011, including the 2010 election which required him - like Mr Rockliff after the 2024 poll - to govern in minority.
He said there were no shortage of options for a new leader, who would need to organise support from enough crossbenchers to stave off an election.
"Eric Abetz is ambitious, Michael Ferguson still has a baton in the knapsack, Guy Barnett is ambitious and Madeleine Ogilvie is ambitious," he said.
Mr Stansfield, who has advised the Liberals to four straight election wins, said the Liberals' charge to an election was "lemming-like behaviour".
"They have willingly chosen to go to their own political execution rather than change their policies or change their leader in order to stay in power," he told the FontCast podcast.
Former Liberal Premier Will Hodgman attacked the vote of no confidence, saying it was "politically reckless, and seriously damaging to Tasmania's reputation" on social media.
AAP has spoken with multiple past and present MPs and advisers, who have confirmed Liberal MPs are privately canvassing options to topple Mr Rockliff and avoid an election.
Mr Stansfield - who confirmed dissenting voices in the partyroom over the election position - said Mr Rockliff's position was secure.
"The die is cast. They have chosen to follow their leader to an election that they will lose," he said.
Liberal senator for Tasmania Jonno Duniam was incredulous about the leadership speculation.
"They could choose to change leader - I'm not a part of that party room, I'm not going to tell them what to do," he told the ABC.
"This is nuts that we're going to an election."
Mr Rockliff on Friday travelled to his home region of the north-west coast, the same community which experienced the deaths of six children in a 2021 bouncy castle tragedy.
He opted against a public appearance, given it came on the same day a verdict was finally reached on workplace health and safety failings behind the incident.
"Today politics must be put aside. Another heart wrenching day, as we relive the trauma of the Hillcrest tragedy," he posted on social media.
After losing the no-confidence vote, Mr Rockliff gave an emotional address to parliament where he revealed he fought off internal opponents to stand by the billion-dollar Hobart waterfront stadium which would house a Tasmanian AFL team - but is unpopular with voters.
"I've been advised by all the hard-heads in my party not to go down that track. Why? Because it's bad for votes," he said.
"Well, I've always said 'stuff votes' ... I'll say it for the stadium for as long as I damn well live, because I believe in it."
Embattled premier Jeremy Rockliff has vowed to fight and win a snap election, but speculation is growing his Tasmanian Liberal colleagues will deny him the chance.
Tasmania's lower house passed a motion of no confidence in Mr Rockliff on Thursday, just 15 months into the minority government's four-year term.
The vote was an episode in spiralling political brinkmanship, with the premier warning opposition leader Dean Winter he would advise for an early election if his motion succeeded.
The prevailing political wisdom is the Rockliff government will lose an election, with veteran Liberal political operative Brad Stansfield saying they would be "annihilated" in a winter campaign.
However, parliament's dissolution is not due until after Tuesday, given the need to pass a stop-gap budget bill before the election campaign.
The delay across the King's Birthday long weekend gives the 17 members of the Liberal party room - including 14 who will put their seats at risk in a campaign - plenty of time to rethink their support for Mr Rockliff.
"It's probably 70 to 80 per cent likely that either over the weekend or following the appropriation bill going through on Tuesday, Jeremy won't be leader," former premier David Bartlett told AAP.
"It won't be a coup. It will be a smooth transition of power to a new leader and Jeremy will be under all sorts of pressure from internal Liberal party people to make that happen.
"I'm not even convinced Jeremy Rockliff wants to go to another election. He'd probably rather retire to the farm."
Mr Bartlett led a Labor government between 2008-2011, including the 2010 election which required him - like Mr Rockliff after the 2024 poll - to govern in minority.
He said there were no shortage of options for a new leader, who would need to organise support from enough crossbenchers to stave off an election.
"Eric Abetz is ambitious, Michael Ferguson still has a baton in the knapsack, Guy Barnett is ambitious and Madeleine Ogilvie is ambitious," he said.
Mr Stansfield, who has advised the Liberals to four straight election wins, said the Liberals' charge to an election was "lemming-like behaviour".
"They have willingly chosen to go to their own political execution rather than change their policies or change their leader in order to stay in power," he told the FontCast podcast.
Former Liberal Premier Will Hodgman attacked the vote of no confidence, saying it was "politically reckless, and seriously damaging to Tasmania's reputation" on social media.
AAP has spoken with multiple past and present MPs and advisers, who have confirmed Liberal MPs are privately canvassing options to topple Mr Rockliff and avoid an election.
Mr Stansfield - who confirmed dissenting voices in the partyroom over the election position - said Mr Rockliff's position was secure.
"The die is cast. They have chosen to follow their leader to an election that they will lose," he said.
Liberal senator for Tasmania Jonno Duniam was incredulous about the leadership speculation.
"They could choose to change leader - I'm not a part of that party room, I'm not going to tell them what to do," he told the ABC.
"This is nuts that we're going to an election."
Mr Rockliff on Friday travelled to his home region of the north-west coast, the same community which experienced the deaths of six children in a 2021 bouncy castle tragedy.
He opted against a public appearance, given it came on the same day a verdict was finally reached on workplace health and safety failings behind the incident.
"Today politics must be put aside. Another heart wrenching day, as we relive the trauma of the Hillcrest tragedy," he posted on social media.
After losing the no-confidence vote, Mr Rockliff gave an emotional address to parliament where he revealed he fought off internal opponents to stand by the billion-dollar Hobart waterfront stadium which would house a Tasmanian AFL team - but is unpopular with voters.
"I've been advised by all the hard-heads in my party not to go down that track. Why? Because it's bad for votes," he said.
"Well, I've always said 'stuff votes' ... I'll say it for the stadium for as long as I damn well live, because I believe in it."
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Ex-federal Liberal MP Bridget Archer is viewed as a likely candidate in Bass should Mr Rockliff hang on. Anti-salmon independent Peter George, who ran Julie Collins close in the safe federal seat of Franklin, told AAP he was considering his options. Opposition leader Dean Winter moved the no-confidence motion due to the state budget, which included ballooning deficits and debt forecasts and the proposals to privatise state assets. However, it's the stadium that looms as the biggest issue. Veteran political campaigner Brad Stansfield, who has worked on the Liberals' last four election wins, said it would be issue No.1. "At the last election ... we mostly kept it hidden from the campaign," he said on his FontCast podcast. "This campaign is going to be the referendum on the AFL stadium that we haven't yet had. It is coming like a steam train." The roofed Macquarie Point stadium is a condition of an AFL licence, with the state government responsible for delivery and cost overruns. But recent polls suggest Tasmanians are not sold on the need for a new stadium. Labor and the Liberals support the stadium, but Mr Stansfield said Mr Rockliff would be the one to pay the electoral price. "If you don't like the stadium, you will vote against the Liberals," he said. Roland Browne, spokesperson for the anti-stadium Our Place group, told AAP they would campaign if there was an election. Mr Browne said he could see a scenario where one or both of the major parties would join the Greens in opposing the project. No state-owned businesses will be sold off, the Tasmanian premier has declared, following a week of political turmoil. Liberal leader Jeremy Rockliff has ruled out privatisations in an attempt to diffuse opposition attacks, with the possibility of selling some government entities among Labor's reasons for moving a vote of no confidence against the premier. 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Veteran political campaigner Brad Stansfield, who has worked on the Liberals' last four election wins, said it would be issue No.1. "At the last election ... we mostly kept it hidden from the campaign," he said on his FontCast podcast. "This campaign is going to be the referendum on the AFL stadium that we haven't yet had. It is coming like a steam train." The roofed Macquarie Point stadium is a condition of an AFL licence, with the state government responsible for delivery and cost overruns. But recent polls suggest Tasmanians are not sold on the need for a new stadium. Labor and the Liberals support the stadium, but Mr Stansfield said Mr Rockliff would be the one to pay the electoral price. "If you don't like the stadium, you will vote against the Liberals," he said. Roland Browne, spokesperson for the anti-stadium Our Place group, told AAP they would campaign if there was an election. 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But Labor shadow treasurer Josh Willie said privatising government assets was "in their DNA" regardless of the latest statements from the premier. "They didn't take it to the last election and they tried to sell Tasmanian assets," he told reporters in Hobart on Saturday. "So they will try to do it again, and the only way to stop them is to not vote for them." The political ructions look to set send Tasmanians back to the polls for the fourth time in seven years unless the Liberal party opts to remove Mr Rockliff and negotiate a new deal with crossbenchers. An election could be called on Tuesday. Senior Liberal figures including Senator Jonno Duniam are calling the prospect of a snap election "nuts". "I would have thought every effort should be put into not going to an election ... the people that lose out most in all this - forget the parliamentarians - it's the people of Tassie," he told ABC Radio. 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Even if the federal government lowers barriers blocking imports of US beef, it would be no match for higher quality and cheaper to produce Australian cattle. Australia is considering granting more American beef producers access to the local market as a potential bargaining chip to strike a deal on tariffs, as the two nations' leaders prepare to potentially meet face-to-face for the first time. For biosecurity reasons, Australia imposes a soft ban on US beef. Cattle that can be proven to have been raised and slaughtered in the US are allowed into the Australian market, but large amounts of beef sent to American abattoirs come from Mexico or Canada, which are barred from importation. Challenges in tracing the origin of cattle means in practice beef imports are not allowed, until the US can show the same traceability systems Australia has in place. Australian beef producers urged the government not to loosen biosecurity protections. 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"Any beef that's coming in from the US is probably going to be targeting quite select segments of beef consumption, probably the cheaper cuts, produced beef products. "So it's not really competing with the premium Australian beef products that our beef farms produce." The low exchange rate of the Australian dollar as well as the high cost of transporting US beef also reduced the likelihood of it outcompeting homegrown products, he said. Local consumers are accustomed to leaner, higher-quality Australian beef and unlikely to be won over by fatty, hormone-injected American competitors. "I think there's not a lot of risk to Australian producers of beef, with this possibility of some limited US beef being imported into Australia," Mr Humphreys said. Australia's Department of Agriculture is reviewing its ban on Mexican and Canadian beef slaughtered in the US. Agriculture Minister Julie Collins said any decision to allow greater access for US beef would be based on science and evidence. Even if the federal government lowers barriers blocking imports of US beef, it would be no match for higher quality and cheaper to produce Australian cattle. Australia is considering granting more American beef producers access to the local market as a potential bargaining chip to strike a deal on tariffs, as the two nations' leaders prepare to potentially meet face-to-face for the first time. For biosecurity reasons, Australia imposes a soft ban on US beef. Cattle that can be proven to have been raised and slaughtered in the US are allowed into the Australian market, but large amounts of beef sent to American abattoirs come from Mexico or Canada, which are barred from importation. Challenges in tracing the origin of cattle means in practice beef imports are not allowed, until the US can show the same traceability systems Australia has in place. Australian beef producers urged the government not to loosen biosecurity protections. "Australia's biosecurity status is integral to the success and sustainability of our agricultural industries," National Farmers Federation president David Jochinke said. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese assured farmers the government would make no compromises on biosecurity. But as long as biosecurity was protected, Mr Albanese said he would be open to discussions about easing restrictions. David Humphreys, vice chair of industry body Western Beef Association, was open to the idea as well. As long as Australia's biosecurity standards were protected, it would be a beneficial outcome for all Australian farmers if it could be used as leverage to lower US tariffs, he said. Assuming US beef imports posed no disease risk, the impacts for Australian farmers from extra competition would be limited. "Australia has very competitive and relatively cheap beef production in comparison," Mr Humphreys told AAP. "Any beef that's coming in from the US is probably going to be targeting quite select segments of beef consumption, probably the cheaper cuts, produced beef products. "So it's not really competing with the premium Australian beef products that our beef farms produce." The low exchange rate of the Australian dollar as well as the high cost of transporting US beef also reduced the likelihood of it outcompeting homegrown products, he said. Local consumers are accustomed to leaner, higher-quality Australian beef and unlikely to be won over by fatty, hormone-injected American competitors. "I think there's not a lot of risk to Australian producers of beef, with this possibility of some limited US beef being imported into Australia," Mr Humphreys said. Australia's Department of Agriculture is reviewing its ban on Mexican and Canadian beef slaughtered in the US. Agriculture Minister Julie Collins said any decision to allow greater access for US beef would be based on science and evidence. Even if the federal government lowers barriers blocking imports of US beef, it would be no match for higher quality and cheaper to produce Australian cattle. Australia is considering granting more American beef producers access to the local market as a potential bargaining chip to strike a deal on tariffs, as the two nations' leaders prepare to potentially meet face-to-face for the first time. For biosecurity reasons, Australia imposes a soft ban on US beef. Cattle that can be proven to have been raised and slaughtered in the US are allowed into the Australian market, but large amounts of beef sent to American abattoirs come from Mexico or Canada, which are barred from importation. Challenges in tracing the origin of cattle means in practice beef imports are not allowed, until the US can show the same traceability systems Australia has in place. Australian beef producers urged the government not to loosen biosecurity protections. "Australia's biosecurity status is integral to the success and sustainability of our agricultural industries," National Farmers Federation president David Jochinke said. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese assured farmers the government would make no compromises on biosecurity. But as long as biosecurity was protected, Mr Albanese said he would be open to discussions about easing restrictions. David Humphreys, vice chair of industry body Western Beef Association, was open to the idea as well. As long as Australia's biosecurity standards were protected, it would be a beneficial outcome for all Australian farmers if it could be used as leverage to lower US tariffs, he said. Assuming US beef imports posed no disease risk, the impacts for Australian farmers from extra competition would be limited. "Australia has very competitive and relatively cheap beef production in comparison," Mr Humphreys told AAP. "Any beef that's coming in from the US is probably going to be targeting quite select segments of beef consumption, probably the cheaper cuts, produced beef products. "So it's not really competing with the premium Australian beef products that our beef farms produce." The low exchange rate of the Australian dollar as well as the high cost of transporting US beef also reduced the likelihood of it outcompeting homegrown products, he said. Local consumers are accustomed to leaner, higher-quality Australian beef and unlikely to be won over by fatty, hormone-injected American competitors. "I think there's not a lot of risk to Australian producers of beef, with this possibility of some limited US beef being imported into Australia," Mr Humphreys said. Australia's Department of Agriculture is reviewing its ban on Mexican and Canadian beef slaughtered in the US. Agriculture Minister Julie Collins said any decision to allow greater access for US beef would be based on science and evidence.
The Advertiser
an hour ago
- The Advertiser
Budget blowout, $1b stadium and new ships sink premier
HOW JEREMY ROCKLIFF'S MINORITY LIBERAL GOVERNMENT WAS LEFT IN TATTERS ELECTORAL REFORM * On taking office in 2022, one of Mr Rockliff's first acts as Tasmanian premier was to back the return of a 35-seat House of Assembly, up from 25, to reduce the workload on ministers and MPs * Given Tasmania's Senate-like lower house, this made it easier for independents and Greens to win seats, producing a hung parliament at the 2024 election MINORITY MAYHEM * Mr Rockliff's Liberals suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the 2024 poll but remained parliament's biggest party, with 14 MPs to Labor's 10 and the five Greens * To govern, Mr Rockliff signed deals with five other crossbenchers, including various promises he has struggled to fulfil, straining relationships SPIRITS SAGA * The biggest turbulence for the Rockliff government has been its botched replacement of Spirit of Tasmania ferries, the critical sea link to the mainland * Two Finland-built ships were due in 2024, but the new berth in Devonport won't be ready until 2026, with costs blowing out from $90 million to $495 million * Michael Ferguson took the fall, resigning as infrastructure minister in August and then, as a no-confidence motion loomed, as Treasurer in October AFL ASPIRATION * An Australian Rules state to its boots, Tasmania has always coveted a place in the AFL and got it in 2022 when a bid championed by former premier Peter Gutwein was realised by Mr Rockliff * The deal came with strings attached - the AFL will pay the least, but demands a roofed stadium close to the inner-city * The federal government does not pay as much as the state government, which also crucially, is on the hook for cost overruns - already into the hundreds of millions STADIUM STRUGGLES * The huge stadium project has drawn opposition, with some saying it's in the wrong spot, including Hobart City Council and the RSL, given the proximity to heritage and a nearby war memorial * Economists attack dubious return-on-investment projections; engineers doubt the feasibility of the Macquarie Point site, and those outside of Hobart feel it's an over-the-top investment, especially given the state's health and housing woes BUDGET BLOWOUT * The final straw - at least to Labor - was new Treasurer Guy Barnett's budget unveiled in May * The Liberals unveiled deficits as far as the eye could see and ballooning debt to $10 billion - a huge amount for a state of 550,000 people * The blowout drew huge criticism inside and outside parliament LABOR EMBOLDENED * The Labor opposition has suffered four election defeats in a row, the past three under Rebecca White, but has enjoyed a poll uptick under new leader Dean Winter * Mr Winter sees a government on the ropes and enough of the crossbench agree * Labor was emboldened by the huge support Tasmanians offered to candidates in the federal election, with four of the five seats now in Labor hands DEADLOCK BROKEN * After two days of debate, a vote on Mr Winter's motion of no confidence was finally taken * With the result locked at 17-17, Labor speaker Michelle O'Byrne cast a deciding vote with her party, ending Mr Rockliff's premiership * Mr Winter ruled out forming government in a deal with the Greens - without which Labor doesn't have the numbers - in effect making an election a certainty WHAT NEXT? * Parliament will resume to pass an emergency funding bill so essential government services can continue beyond July 1 * Once the bills pass both houses of parliament, Mr Rockliff says he will visit Governor Barbara Baker to call an election, likely in late July * There remains the prospect that Mr Rockliff - who is wedded to the stadium project - could depart as leader, allowing the Liberals a fresh chance to cobble together another minority government without an election, and perhaps the stadium HOW JEREMY ROCKLIFF'S MINORITY LIBERAL GOVERNMENT WAS LEFT IN TATTERS ELECTORAL REFORM * On taking office in 2022, one of Mr Rockliff's first acts as Tasmanian premier was to back the return of a 35-seat House of Assembly, up from 25, to reduce the workload on ministers and MPs * Given Tasmania's Senate-like lower house, this made it easier for independents and Greens to win seats, producing a hung parliament at the 2024 election MINORITY MAYHEM * Mr Rockliff's Liberals suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the 2024 poll but remained parliament's biggest party, with 14 MPs to Labor's 10 and the five Greens * To govern, Mr Rockliff signed deals with five other crossbenchers, including various promises he has struggled to fulfil, straining relationships SPIRITS SAGA * The biggest turbulence for the Rockliff government has been its botched replacement of Spirit of Tasmania ferries, the critical sea link to the mainland * Two Finland-built ships were due in 2024, but the new berth in Devonport won't be ready until 2026, with costs blowing out from $90 million to $495 million * Michael Ferguson took the fall, resigning as infrastructure minister in August and then, as a no-confidence motion loomed, as Treasurer in October AFL ASPIRATION * An Australian Rules state to its boots, Tasmania has always coveted a place in the AFL and got it in 2022 when a bid championed by former premier Peter Gutwein was realised by Mr Rockliff * The deal came with strings attached - the AFL will pay the least, but demands a roofed stadium close to the inner-city * The federal government does not pay as much as the state government, which also crucially, is on the hook for cost overruns - already into the hundreds of millions STADIUM STRUGGLES * The huge stadium project has drawn opposition, with some saying it's in the wrong spot, including Hobart City Council and the RSL, given the proximity to heritage and a nearby war memorial * Economists attack dubious return-on-investment projections; engineers doubt the feasibility of the Macquarie Point site, and those outside of Hobart feel it's an over-the-top investment, especially given the state's health and housing woes BUDGET BLOWOUT * The final straw - at least to Labor - was new Treasurer Guy Barnett's budget unveiled in May * The Liberals unveiled deficits as far as the eye could see and ballooning debt to $10 billion - a huge amount for a state of 550,000 people * The blowout drew huge criticism inside and outside parliament LABOR EMBOLDENED * The Labor opposition has suffered four election defeats in a row, the past three under Rebecca White, but has enjoyed a poll uptick under new leader Dean Winter * Mr Winter sees a government on the ropes and enough of the crossbench agree * Labor was emboldened by the huge support Tasmanians offered to candidates in the federal election, with four of the five seats now in Labor hands DEADLOCK BROKEN * After two days of debate, a vote on Mr Winter's motion of no confidence was finally taken * With the result locked at 17-17, Labor speaker Michelle O'Byrne cast a deciding vote with her party, ending Mr Rockliff's premiership * Mr Winter ruled out forming government in a deal with the Greens - without which Labor doesn't have the numbers - in effect making an election a certainty WHAT NEXT? * Parliament will resume to pass an emergency funding bill so essential government services can continue beyond July 1 * Once the bills pass both houses of parliament, Mr Rockliff says he will visit Governor Barbara Baker to call an election, likely in late July * There remains the prospect that Mr Rockliff - who is wedded to the stadium project - could depart as leader, allowing the Liberals a fresh chance to cobble together another minority government without an election, and perhaps the stadium HOW JEREMY ROCKLIFF'S MINORITY LIBERAL GOVERNMENT WAS LEFT IN TATTERS ELECTORAL REFORM * On taking office in 2022, one of Mr Rockliff's first acts as Tasmanian premier was to back the return of a 35-seat House of Assembly, up from 25, to reduce the workload on ministers and MPs * Given Tasmania's Senate-like lower house, this made it easier for independents and Greens to win seats, producing a hung parliament at the 2024 election MINORITY MAYHEM * Mr Rockliff's Liberals suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the 2024 poll but remained parliament's biggest party, with 14 MPs to Labor's 10 and the five Greens * To govern, Mr Rockliff signed deals with five other crossbenchers, including various promises he has struggled to fulfil, straining relationships SPIRITS SAGA * The biggest turbulence for the Rockliff government has been its botched replacement of Spirit of Tasmania ferries, the critical sea link to the mainland * Two Finland-built ships were due in 2024, but the new berth in Devonport won't be ready until 2026, with costs blowing out from $90 million to $495 million * Michael Ferguson took the fall, resigning as infrastructure minister in August and then, as a no-confidence motion loomed, as Treasurer in October AFL ASPIRATION * An Australian Rules state to its boots, Tasmania has always coveted a place in the AFL and got it in 2022 when a bid championed by former premier Peter Gutwein was realised by Mr Rockliff * The deal came with strings attached - the AFL will pay the least, but demands a roofed stadium close to the inner-city * The federal government does not pay as much as the state government, which also crucially, is on the hook for cost overruns - already into the hundreds of millions STADIUM STRUGGLES * The huge stadium project has drawn opposition, with some saying it's in the wrong spot, including Hobart City Council and the RSL, given the proximity to heritage and a nearby war memorial * Economists attack dubious return-on-investment projections; engineers doubt the feasibility of the Macquarie Point site, and those outside of Hobart feel it's an over-the-top investment, especially given the state's health and housing woes BUDGET BLOWOUT * The final straw - at least to Labor - was new Treasurer Guy Barnett's budget unveiled in May * The Liberals unveiled deficits as far as the eye could see and ballooning debt to $10 billion - a huge amount for a state of 550,000 people * The blowout drew huge criticism inside and outside parliament LABOR EMBOLDENED * The Labor opposition has suffered four election defeats in a row, the past three under Rebecca White, but has enjoyed a poll uptick under new leader Dean Winter * Mr Winter sees a government on the ropes and enough of the crossbench agree * Labor was emboldened by the huge support Tasmanians offered to candidates in the federal election, with four of the five seats now in Labor hands DEADLOCK BROKEN * After two days of debate, a vote on Mr Winter's motion of no confidence was finally taken * With the result locked at 17-17, Labor speaker Michelle O'Byrne cast a deciding vote with her party, ending Mr Rockliff's premiership * Mr Winter ruled out forming government in a deal with the Greens - without which Labor doesn't have the numbers - in effect making an election a certainty WHAT NEXT? * Parliament will resume to pass an emergency funding bill so essential government services can continue beyond July 1 * Once the bills pass both houses of parliament, Mr Rockliff says he will visit Governor Barbara Baker to call an election, likely in late July * There remains the prospect that Mr Rockliff - who is wedded to the stadium project - could depart as leader, allowing the Liberals a fresh chance to cobble together another minority government without an election, and perhaps the stadium HOW JEREMY ROCKLIFF'S MINORITY LIBERAL GOVERNMENT WAS LEFT IN TATTERS ELECTORAL REFORM * On taking office in 2022, one of Mr Rockliff's first acts as Tasmanian premier was to back the return of a 35-seat House of Assembly, up from 25, to reduce the workload on ministers and MPs * Given Tasmania's Senate-like lower house, this made it easier for independents and Greens to win seats, producing a hung parliament at the 2024 election MINORITY MAYHEM * Mr Rockliff's Liberals suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the 2024 poll but remained parliament's biggest party, with 14 MPs to Labor's 10 and the five Greens * To govern, Mr Rockliff signed deals with five other crossbenchers, including various promises he has struggled to fulfil, straining relationships SPIRITS SAGA * The biggest turbulence for the Rockliff government has been its botched replacement of Spirit of Tasmania ferries, the critical sea link to the mainland * Two Finland-built ships were due in 2024, but the new berth in Devonport won't be ready until 2026, with costs blowing out from $90 million to $495 million * Michael Ferguson took the fall, resigning as infrastructure minister in August and then, as a no-confidence motion loomed, as Treasurer in October AFL ASPIRATION * An Australian Rules state to its boots, Tasmania has always coveted a place in the AFL and got it in 2022 when a bid championed by former premier Peter Gutwein was realised by Mr Rockliff * The deal came with strings attached - the AFL will pay the least, but demands a roofed stadium close to the inner-city * The federal government does not pay as much as the state government, which also crucially, is on the hook for cost overruns - already into the hundreds of millions STADIUM STRUGGLES * The huge stadium project has drawn opposition, with some saying it's in the wrong spot, including Hobart City Council and the RSL, given the proximity to heritage and a nearby war memorial * Economists attack dubious return-on-investment projections; engineers doubt the feasibility of the Macquarie Point site, and those outside of Hobart feel it's an over-the-top investment, especially given the state's health and housing woes BUDGET BLOWOUT * The final straw - at least to Labor - was new Treasurer Guy Barnett's budget unveiled in May * The Liberals unveiled deficits as far as the eye could see and ballooning debt to $10 billion - a huge amount for a state of 550,000 people * The blowout drew huge criticism inside and outside parliament LABOR EMBOLDENED * The Labor opposition has suffered four election defeats in a row, the past three under Rebecca White, but has enjoyed a poll uptick under new leader Dean Winter * Mr Winter sees a government on the ropes and enough of the crossbench agree * Labor was emboldened by the huge support Tasmanians offered to candidates in the federal election, with four of the five seats now in Labor hands DEADLOCK BROKEN * After two days of debate, a vote on Mr Winter's motion of no confidence was finally taken * With the result locked at 17-17, Labor speaker Michelle O'Byrne cast a deciding vote with her party, ending Mr Rockliff's premiership * Mr Winter ruled out forming government in a deal with the Greens - without which Labor doesn't have the numbers - in effect making an election a certainty WHAT NEXT? * Parliament will resume to pass an emergency funding bill so essential government services can continue beyond July 1 * Once the bills pass both houses of parliament, Mr Rockliff says he will visit Governor Barbara Baker to call an election, likely in late July * There remains the prospect that Mr Rockliff - who is wedded to the stadium project - could depart as leader, allowing the Liberals a fresh chance to cobble together another minority government without an election, and perhaps the stadium
