What Will Tesla's Robotaxi Service Look Like in the Future? CEO Elon Musk Envisions a Combination of Uber and Airbnb.

Globe and Mail

6 hours ago

After years of speculation, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) will soon launch its first batch of robotaxis in Austin, Texas, an event that will be closely monitored by the market.
While Tesla at its core is an electric vehicle company, investors have run up the valuation of the stock by betting on future innovations like robotaxis and Tesla's planned rollout of humanoid Optimus robots.
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Both could be massive new businesses that generate tons of new revenue. Looking specifically at robotaxis, Musk has grand plans. The billionaire foresees a business model that combines Uber and Airbnb. Let's take a look.
Tesla owners could rent their vehicles to the fleet
It's still early days, but if everything works out the way Musk hopes, Tesla will be able to launch a large ride-hailing fleet of driverless robotaxis that could potentially compete with the largest players like Uber. While Uber is not specifically building full self-driving (FSD) vehicles, it has positioned itself as a partner for autonomous companies and also forged several partnerships with big players like Waymo.
Some have speculated that Tesla could potentially acquire or partner with Uber, although Musk has shut those rumors down, claiming there is no need. When videos recently surfaced of the first Tesla Model Ys beginning to map Austin, Musk said on X, "... these are unmodified Tesla cars coming straight from the factory, meaning that every Tesla coming out of our factories is capable of unsupervised self-driving!"
The other big aspect that Musk wants to incorporate -- the Airbnb aspect -- is enabling Tesla owners to essentially rent out their vehicles to the fleet. Late last year, Gary Black, the renowned managing partner of The Future Fund, tweeted that Tesla owners could potentially earn $40,000 per year by renting out their Teslas to the robotaxi fleet.
Black assumed that owners would charge $1 for each mile rented to the robotaxi fleet, take home 75% of the earnings, and also assumed 25 trips a day, with each trip six miles long on average. That would certainly be an intriguing proposition.
Musk has also said that he thinks there could be hundreds of thousands of robotaxis in Tesla's fleet and on the road by late next year.
Early days
While the prospects of the robotaxi business are undoubtedly exciting, investors should probably temper their expectations for now.
Musk recently announced that Tesla plans to roll out 10-20 robotaxis on June 22. Reports suggest the robotaxis will be driverless, but that there could be a human monitoring the vehicles remotely. Furthermore, the driverless Teslas will be geofenced to start, meaning they will only operate in certain parts of Austin.
Initial media reports suggested the launch would be June 12, but Musk on X attributed the delay to Tesla being "super paranoid about safety." While I am not an expert on FSD, it strikes me as a little concerning that Tesla is pushing out a launch 10 days to once again ensure that everything is safe. I'm not suggesting the vehicles aren't safe, but rather that the launch could be pretty basic to begin with and that Musk's timeline for FSD is likely a bit ambitious. Ramping things up could take more time than expected.
Additionally, as I've written about previously, I believe Tesla's current valuation likely factors in a significant amount of success from robotaxis and Optimus robots. Tesla already trades at 172 forward earnings.
At the end of May, when Tesla traded at 180 times forward earnings, Black also noted on X that in the history of the stock market, no company with a $1 trillion market cap has ever traded at a forward P/E like that. At that kind of multiple, Black said Tesla's market cap should actually be bigger than Apple or Microsoft, which "seems insane," given these companies' massive total addressable markets, huge brands, and incredible cash-flow generating capabilities. This is something for investors to keep in mind.
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Bram Berkowitz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Airbnb, Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.