What's At Stake If Israel-Iran Conflict Escalates? 5 Worst-Case Scenarios

NDTV

9 hours ago

What began as simmering tensions between two rivals has now exploded into one of the most dangerous flare-ups the Middle East has seen in years. On June 13, Israel launched a sweeping aerial offensive, striking over 100 strategic targets, from nuclear facilities to military installations, across Iran. Tehran responded, unleashing waves of missiles and drones on Israeli cities, damaging vital infrastructure.
Over 100 people have been reported killed in Iran, and at least seven in Israel, with hundreds of others injured.
As both nations trade blows, global powers are sounding alarms over the risk of a full-scale regional war. Here are some of the most concerning scenarios experts fear may unfold:
The United States May Join
Iran believes the US tacitly supported Israel's June 13 aerial strikes. With American troops stationed across the region, US targets may become vulnerable.
A single American casualty could force US President Donald Trump to act, despite his "no new wars" promise.
Israel Fails To Crush Iran's Nuclear Programme
Despite the scale of Israel's assault, doubts remain over its impact. Iran's enriched uranium may be hidden deep underground, and killing scientists won't erase nuclear expertise.
If Israel's strikes miss uranium stockpiles or leave key facilities like Fordow intact, Iran may race to build a bomb.
With more aggressive commanders now in charge, risking a cycle of retaliation and further Israeli strikes in what is grimly called "mowing the grass."
Gulf States In The Crosshairs
If Iran can't hit Israel hard, it may strike softer Gulf targets, like oil fields or US airbases in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or Bahrain. Past attacks show it is capable.
A fresh assault could pull Gulf nations into the war and demand more US firepower.
A Global Economic Shock
Oil prices are rising. If Iran moves to block the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial choke-point for global oil, or if the Houthis in Yemen resume attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes, the impact could be global.
Many economies are still struggling with inflation and post-Covid pandemic recovery. Another oil shock could deepen the cost-of-living crisis. And any rise in crude prices would directly benefit Russia, giving President Vladimir Putin a financial windfall for his war in Ukraine.
Iran's Regime Falls
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Iranian people that the strikes were "clearing the path for you to achieve your freedom."
If Israel triggers regime collapse, the result may not be freedom, but a vacuum. Iran could face internal conflict, like post-Saddam Hussein Iraq or Muammar Gaddafi's Libya.
The region might face years of instability, radicalisation, and displacement.