Starmer's ‘one in, one out' migrant deal has already failed, evidence suggests

Telegraph

3 days ago

Fifty per cent more migrants have crossed the Channel since Sir Keir Starmer agreed his 'one in, one out' deal with France than in the same period last year, analysis shows.
The deal, struck with Emmanuel Macron, the French president, last month means Britain will detain illegal migrants and send them back to France in return for taking a similar number of asylum seekers from France.
The agreement is meant to deter migrants from making the Channel crossing because those who reach Britain are likely to be sent back.
Sir Keir unveiled the scheme at a joint press conference with Mr Macron on July 10, four weeks before the scheme began, and said it would 'show others trying to make the same journey that it will be in vain'.
The Prime Minister wrote on X last month: 'For the very first time, migrants arriving via small boat will be detained and returned to France in short order. This Government is breaking the business model of criminal smuggling gangs and securing our borders.'
But analysis by The Telegraph suggests the announcement did not have a deterrent effect. It has found that, between July 10 and last Sunday, the most recent day for which the Home Office has published figures, 5,438 migrants crossed the Channel in small boats.
This is more than 50 per cent higher than the 3,581 who made the journey over the same period last year, which was the first month of the Government's Border Security Command.
It is also 78 per cent greater than the 3,055 arrivals under Rishi Sunak in the summer of 2023, and narrowly beats the previous record of 5,360, set in 2022 when Boris Johnson was prime minister.
It is believed that the trial scheme, which began on Wednesday, will return about 50 migrants a week to France, which will mean about 800 over the course of a year.
The weather is a significant factor in the number of people crossing the Channel, with conditions good so far this year.
Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said: 'These figures show that the Government's so-called deal is no deterrent at all.
'I saw this with my own eyes on the Channel last week. If only 6 per cent of the illegal immigrants are removed and 94 per cent can stay in the UK, that is no deterrent at all. We need every single illegal immigrant to be removed upon arrival. That would be a real deterrent.'
He added that he believed the Government was 'too weak to do it, and as a result, this year so far has been the worst in history' for migrant crossings.
The Government hopes that the number of returns to France will quickly increase after the trial period of the scheme is over.
The Home Office released footage of migrants being detained on the first day that the scheme was running, with the first men arrested at Dover harbour.
The number of migrants to cross the English Channel since Labour came to power last summer is expected to hit 50,000 this week. Kemi Badenoch, the leader of the Conservatives, has claimed that she would reduce the number to zero 'quickly' if she entered No 10.
A Home Office spokesman said: 'This analysis does not represent the effectiveness of our ground-breaking pilot scheme to detain and return migrants to France, which was implemented just last week.
'We all want to end dangerous small boat crossings, which threaten lives and undermine our border security, and break the business model of vile people-smuggling gangs.
'So far this year, 15,000 crossing attempts have been stopped, and we know more needs to be done to build on this.
'Alongside our pilot scheme, the French authorities are also working to amend their operational policy to allow maritime forces to intervene at sea.'