Prime Minister Ishiba's struggles put his leadership in jeopardy

Japan Times

20-03-2025

A Japanese prime minister can't just leisurely tackle global issues, manage the party, pass government legislation and endure endless hours of opposition questioning one by one. He must have the energy, mental capacity and leadership ability to handle all at once. So a clear sign that a prime minister is overwhelmed is when he starts making unforced errors.
Which brings us to where things currently stand: After two years spent by his party dealing with a reporting scandal, Ishiba decided to hand out ¥100,000 gift certificates to 15 newly elected Liberal Democratic Party members. The opposition and the anti-LDP media quickly jumped on the move, with several parties calling for his resignation as prime minister. The usual suspect, or citizens group, filed a lawsuit the same day, alleging that Ishiba (and those who received the gifts) violated the political contributions law, which bans political funds from being given to individuals.
Ishiba appeared genuinely shocked by the scandal. The certificates were quickly returned, so a bit of tempest in a teapot, but yet another example of his penchant for situational unawareness.
They say it takes a village sometimes to achieve something meaningful.
It took a significant effort, involving many of Japan's best and brightest experts on U.S.-Japan relations, to get the nation's accidental prime minister, Ishiba, to follow the plan for his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in early February. They had to teach him what to say, what not to say and when to smile.
The long-delayed meeting allowed Japan to postpone the inevitable for a while. However, Ishiba had no plan beyond trying desperately to remain neutral on the situations in Ukraine, Gaza and the ongoing tariff war between the U.S., Europe, Canada and Mexico.
Hiding in the weeds works for a while, but now there's no place to hide. Ishiba sent his commerce minister, Yoji Muto, to the U.S., but Japan's steel and aluminum exports remain subject to a 25% tariff, though that's a minor issue.
The White House spokesperson took an odd shot at Japan's supposed "700%" import tariff on rice. However, this reflects that the new U.S. administration is moving quickly and relying on inaccurate data. The 350,000 tons of U.S. rice imported into Japan face a 0% tariff, while the U.S. imports very little Japanese rice. The "700% tariff" isn't actually a percentage but a fixed ¥341 per kilogram, which applies to just 0.03% of imported rice. Let's talk about reciprocity.
But as Ishiba tries to milk his two-hour meeting with Trump for all it's worth, the focus is now shifting to a more pressing issue — autos.
The good news first: Some 60% of new Japanese-branded cars sold in the United States are manufactured in Japanese-owned American factories that represent tens of billions of dollars in investments. Another 20% of Japanese car sales come from factories in Canada and Mexico. One hopes that the final investigations into parts content show that these cars fully comply with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, and therefore should be imported tariff-free, as Trump himself negotiated the deal, making it harder to dispute.
Now the bad news: That leaves about 1.4 million cars built in Japan and exported to the U.S. exposed to a new 25% tariff. That is going to hurt and Ishiba is doing nothing to prevent it.
Then there is the issue of the prime minister's singular focus on getting the 2025 fiscal budget passed by the legislature before April 1. If he doesn't, Japan's parliament could start resembling the U.S. Congress with its continuing budget resolutions. The opposition parties will likely use the gift certificate scandal to hold him hostage right up to the very last minute.
Japan's more powerful Lower House approved the heavily compromised budget, marking the first time in nearly three decades that a budget from the ruling government needed to be amended. And despite the LDP-led coalition holding a majority, the prime minister now faces expected opposition in the Upper House.
Ishiba made a colossal mistake by calling an early election when one wasn't needed for another year. As a result, he now leads a barely governable minority government. He has meekly surrendered many of the levers of control and power in the Japanese government to opposition parties, who are taking full advantage of the situation, making him pay dearly.
With an Upper House election looming in July, Ishiba is creating communication problems between the Prime Minister's Office, key decision-makers within his party and himself. He often announces decisions, only to reverse them later, like with the medical expense co-payment cap. This shows just how difficult the role of prime minister in Japan really is for most people.
Ishiba is failing, and doing so very publicly. The annual budget has never needed to be amended a second time in the Upper House where the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition still holds a majority, at least for now. After members of his own party revolted against his plan to raise medical cost caps, he was forced to reverse the hike and revise the budget a second time.
As I said during the LDP presidential election last September, he was never up for this job, something former Prime Ministers Fumio Kishida and Yoshihide Suga, who put him in the role, should have known. LDP lawmakers, especially those up for election in July, are growing restless, with some calling for a new party leader before then. Some may call this a conservative revolt, but it is broader than that.
Ishiba has one job left: Pass the fiscal 2025 budget by March 31. After that, calls for him to step down will only intensify. With the world as turbulent as it is, the country cannot continue with such a weak and indecisive leader.
Edo Naito is a commentator on Japanese politics, law and history. He is a retired international business attorney and has held board of director and executive positions at several U.S. and Japanese multinational companies.