2025 Tour Championship odds, DFS picks: Can anyone challenge Scottie Scheffler?
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Scheffler will be looking to defend his Tour Championship title from 2024 this week, but he will have a tougher time doing so as everyone in the field will be starting the tournament on level terms. The old system was underwhelming for both fans and players. This new system isn't perfect, but at least the best players in the world will have a tougher challenge to test who is at their best to end the season.
And, yes, East Lake Golf Club should prove to be a strong test for the players this week. A few recent updates: The 14th hole at East Lake Golf Club has been changed from a Par 5 to a Par 4, and the rough has been lengthened a bit. The greens should be more settled after the changes that Andrew Green put in place in 2024.
The key stats I will focus on include driving accuracy, strokes gained on approach, strokes gained on approach from 125 to 150 yards, 3-putt avoidance and strokes gained on difficult Par-70 golf courses that are over 7,400 yards. I will be using weighted strokes gained this week with the stacked field and the challenging course. I will play around with the number of rounds a bit, as I want to play the players who are at their best at this moment.
Course: East Lake Golf Club
Location: Atlanta
Designer: Tom Bendelow (redesigned by Donald Ross, George Cobb, Rees Jones and Andrew Green)
Par: 70
Length: 7,490 yards
Average green size: 6,238 square feet
Past champions: 2024 Scottie Scheffler, 2023 Viktor Hovland, 2022 Rory McIlroy, 2021 Patrick Cantlay, 2020 Dustin Johnson, 2019 Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy (+850) is looking for his fourth Tour Championship win this week. Scheffler is the betting favorite with very short odds; when the best golfer in the world is a less than 2-to-1 favorite to win a golf tournament, you have to find some value in other spots. McIlroy had some rust to his game last week at the BMW Championship, but seemed to knock it off by the fourth round when he managed to drive a Par-4 green with a 3-wood. He will need to be a little sharper with his wedges to win this week, but I wouldn't be surprised if he wins.
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Viktor Hovland (+2200) has been on fire since his poor first round at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He has gained over nine strokes combined on approach over his last two tournaments, and he has been positive with the putter for four straight tournaments. He may not be on Michael Kim's Christmas card list this year (knocked Kim out of the Tour Championship with a birdie on the last hole at the BMW Championship), but he would be on mine if he could pull out a win this week.
Tommy Fleetwood (+800) doesn't have a win on the PGA Tour, and that is not going to change this week. Fleetwood has been excellent down the stretch of the season and sits second in my power rankings and in my strokes gained weighted over his last 36 rounds. Fleetwood has gained over 10.3 strokes combined on approach over his last two tournaments. He has gained over 15 strokes putting over his last three tournaments. If it weren't for some late Sunday meltdowns and bad luck, he would be coming into this week with multiple wins on tour this season. Betting him this way, we can root for Fleetwood without the inevitable heartbreak.
Russell Henley (+1200) comes into this week third on the PGA Tour in proximity to the fairway while hitting the fairway with his drives at almost a 68 percent pace. He has had an excellent season, and his finishes in the playoffs would have been a little better if he had been a little hotter with the putter. He has gained strokes on approach in six straight tournaments.
Scottie Scheffler ($13,900) has five wins on the PGA Tour season and is the defending champion coming into this week. He will have Tedd Scott back on his bag this week after winning last week for the first time without Scott on the bag. Fading Scheffler with his form is almost impossible to do. He would have to be priced in the 15k range for me to even think about it.
Tommy Fleetwood ($9,900) See above.
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Russell Henley ($9,600) See above.
Viktor Hovland ($9,400) See above.
Sam Burns ($8,500) gained strokes across the board here in 2023, and he gained over four strokes on approach here last year. Burns has gained strokes on approach in four straight tournaments and is on an absolute heater with the putter, gaining over 12 strokes combined putting in his last two tournaments.
J.J. Spaun ($8,100) is making his Tour Championship debut, but the 2025 U.S. Open winner can't be overlooked. He has gained almost 12 strokes combined on approach in the last two weeks and has been a hot putter away from winning. He is well inside the top of my model and is coming in at a nice salary-relief price.
Cameron Young ($7,900) has had an excellent end to the PGA Tour season with a win at the Wyndham and then two straight top-11 finishes in the playoffs. He has gained over 12 strokes combined off the tee in his last three tournaments and is one of the hottest putters on the PGA Tour. He struggled with his approach shots and around the greens in his only trip here in 2022, but should have a better showing this week with his current form.
Sepp Straka ($7,600) is a must-play every time he is priced in this range. Straka has had such a strong season, and hopefully the issues he had to deal with off the course last week won't affect him this week. He has gained over eight strokes combined on approach in his three trips to East Lake. He will need to drive the ball better than he has at past Tour Championships to make some noise this week.
Maverick McNealy ($7,300) gained strokes across the board on Sunday at the BMW Championship, which led to a very nice third-place finish. He is also making his debut at the Tour Championship this week, but could make some noise with his current form.
Harris English ($6,900) is priced too low to ignore with how he has played this season. The issue is that he has struggled with his approach shots during the playoffs, which has kept him from having a good end to the season. He has never driven it well here in three trips. I'm going to play him a little less than what it seems the public is this week.
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Akshay Bhatia ($6,700) almost choked his way out of making it to East Lake on Sunday. He couldn't hit a green or make a putt to save his life down the stretch, but somehow made his way to the Tour Championship. I think he will play well this week after getting through all of that pressure on Sunday. It should free him up for a nice finish to the season. His overall game fits this course really well, and his price is nice.
Shane Lowry ($6,400) gained strokes everywhere except around the green here last year when he finished T9. He has been struggling a bit to end the year, but this course suits his game pretty well. We need to save some money somewhere, and Lowry seems like a decent choice. I want to play Sungjae Im ($6,200) so bad, but I can't after he lost over 10.7 strokes on approach last week.
(Photo of Scottie Scheffler: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
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