Retail inflation in July slips to 8-year low of 1.55%
The consumer price index (CPI) based inflation was 2.1% in June and 3.6% in July 2024.
The July 2025 inflation is the lowest since June 2017 when it was at 1.46%.
"The significant decline in headline inflation and food inflation during the month of July 2025 is mainly attributed to favourable base effect and to decline in inflation of pulses and products, transport and communication, vegetables, cereal and products, education, egg and sugar and confectionery," the National Statistics Office (NSO) said.
The year-on-year food inflation rate in July was (-) 1.76%.
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Mint
15 hours ago
- Mint
WPI inflation falls to 25-month low on softer food prices
NEW DELHI: India's wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation slipped to a 25-month low of -0.58% in July, marking a second straight month in negative territory, provisional data from the Ministry of Commerce showed on Thursday. The reading was well below economists' expectations of a 0.30% decline in a Reuters poll. WPI, a proxy for producers' prices, stood at -0.13% in June, 0.13% in May, 0.85% in April, 2.25% in March, 2.45% in February, and 2.51% in January. The index was pulled down primarily by cheaper primary articles, especially food. July's decline was driven by a sharper year-on-year contraction in the food segment, down 2.15% after a 0.26% fall in June. Vegetable prices tumbled 28.96%, steeper than the 22.65% drop a month earlier, while fruit prices fell 2.65% after a 1.59% increase in June. Prices for pulses, cereals, milk, eggs, meat, and fish also softened. 'This was largely driven by the food segment, which witnessed a larger YoY contraction to the tune of 2.1% as against 0.3% in the previous prints for all the other segments hardened in July 2025, as compared to June 2025,' said Rahul Agrawal, senior economist at rating agency Icra Ltd. 'Similar to the CPI, the WPI is also likely to have bottomed out in July 2025,' Agarwal said, adding Icra it to return to positive territory in August, citing rising year-on-year prints for food and crude oil, rupee depreciation, and an unfavourable base. 'Besides, heavy rains could push up perishable prices sharply in the second half of August, and remain a key monitorable,' he added. Manufactured products, which make up nearly two-thirds of the index, rose 2.05% in July from a year earlier, slightly higher than the 1.97% increase in June. Fuel and power prices fell 2.43%, compared with a 2.65% decline the previous month. Primary articles overall dropped 4.95% year-on-year, after a 3.38% fall in June. Both consumer price index-based inflation and WPI have stayed subdued in recent months, aided by a good monsoon and easing food prices. This trend could persist in the short term, said Sonal Bandhan, economist at Bank of Baroda. 'Going forward, as uncertainties remain regarding US sanctions on importers of Russian oil and the status of a cease-fire deal also remain in limbo, but oil prices are noting some upward pressure,' she said. 'However, renewed tariff-related tensions are set to exert downward pressure on commodity prices as global growth prospects weaken. As a result, we expect WPI to remain contained in the coming months,' she added.
News18
15 hours ago
- News18
WPI inflation declines to 2-year low of (-) 0.58 pc in July
Agency: PTI New Delhi, Aug 14 (PTI) Wholesale price inflation declined to a 2-year low of (-) 0.58 per cent in July, as deflation in food and fuel kept WPI in the negative zone for the second consecutive month, government data released on Thursday showed. Experts, however, projected WPI inflation to move back into positive territory in August, as base effects fade and seasonal price increases continue. WPI-based inflation was 2.10 per cent in July last year, and (-) 0.13 per cent in June. 'Negative rate of inflation in July 2025 is primarily due to a decrease in prices of food articles, mineral oils, crude petroleum & natural gas, manufacture of basic metals, etc," the industry ministry said in a statement. According to WPI data, deflation in food articles widened to 6.29 per cent in July, as against a deflation of 3.75 per cent in June, with vegetables witnessing a sharp drop. Deflation in vegetables was 28.96 per cent in July, compared to 22.65 per cent in June. Fuel and power saw a negative inflation or deflation of 2.43 per cent in July, as against 2.65 per cent in June. In the case of manufactured products, inflation was higher at 2.05 per cent in July, as against 1.97 per cent in the month before. Barclays in a research note said that July wholesale price inflation was driven by lower food and energy prices. 'The continued negative print in headline in year-on-year terms despite the month-on-month rise in wholesale prices is explained by base effects," Barclays said. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which takes into account retail inflation to decide on monetary policy, had kept benchmark policy rates unchanged at 5.5 per cent earlier this month. The retail inflation in July dropped to an 8-year low of 1.55 per cent. ICRA Senior Economist Rahul Agrawal said the deflation in wholesale inflation was largely driven by the food segment, which witnessed a larger year-on-year contraction, led by vegetables, pulses, and eggs, meat & fish. 'Similar to the CPI, the WPI is also likely to have bottomed out in July 2025. Looking ahead, ICRA expects the headline WPI to re-enter the inflationary territory in August 2025, after a gap of two months, amid the hardening in YoY prints for food and crude oil so far, depreciation in the USD/INR pair, as well as an unfavourable base," he said. Besides, heavy rains could push up perishable prices sharply in the second half of August, and remain a key monitorable, Agrawal said. Bank of Baroda Economist Sonal Badhan said going forward, as uncertainties remain regarding US sanctions on importers of Russian oil and status of a ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine also remains in limbo, oil prices are noting some upward pressure. 'However, renewed tariff-related tensions are set to exert downward pressure on commodity prices as global growth prospects weaken. As a result, we expect WPI to remain contained in the coming months," Badhan said. PHDCCI President Hemant Jain said 'going forward, the moderation in prices of food articles and a favourable progress in the southwest monsoon will bolster agricultural activity boosting economic growth". PTI JD DRR view comments First Published: Disclaimer: Comments reflect users' views, not News18's. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
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Business Standard
15 hours ago
- Business Standard
WPI inflation dips for 2nd month, hits 25-month low of -0.58% in July
The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-linked inflation on Thursday stayed negative for the second month in a row at -0.58 per cent in July, due to the decline in food and fuel prices, according to the data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. The wholesale inflation during the same period last year was 2.10 per cent, whereas the inflation for June stood at -0.13 per cent. "Negative rate of inflation in July, 2025 is primarily due to decrease in prices of food articles, mineral oils, crude petroleum and natural gas, manufacture of basic metals," the ministry said in a statement. Food articles saw sharper deflation According to the WPI data, food articles recorded a sharper deflation of 6.29 per cent in July, compared with 3.75 per cent in June, led by a steep fall in vegetable prices. Deflation in vegetables rose to 28.96 per cent in July from 22.65 per cent during the last month. Among other categories, inflation in manufactured products inched up slightly to 2.05 per cent in July from 1.97 per cent in June. The fuel and power segment saw a deflation of 2.43 per cent in July, as against 2.65 per cent in the previous month. CPI inflation slowed to 1.55% in July As reported by Business Standard earlier, the retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), slowed to 1.55 per cent in July, down from 2.1 per cent in June. The decline was driven by a contraction in food prices, the data showed on Tuesday. This was the ninth consecutive month of easing prices, taking inflation well below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) target band of 2–6 per cent. At 1.55 per cent, it is the lowest print since June 2017, according to data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. Policy rates unchanged, inflation forecast lowered in August MPC The RBI, which tracks inflation for policy decisions, had kept benchmark rates unchanged at 5.5 per cent earlier this month. The RBI's monetary policy committee had revised its CPI-based inflation projections, sharply decreasing estimates for the financial year 2025-26 (FY26), mainly due to softer food prices, a favourable base effect, and easing global commodity costs. The FY26 inflation forecast has been eased to 3.1 per cent, down from 3.7 per cent.
