FAO: Meat and dairy lift food prices as sugar falls
The Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) index FAO Food Price Index rose modestly by 0.5% from May and was 5.8% higher than a year earlier, despite falling prices for cereals and sugar.
Overall, food prices remain elevated compared to last year but are still below the peak reached in early 2022.
Food Price Index rises slightly in June
The cereal price index fell by 1.5% in June compared to May. World maize prices declined sharply for the second month amid abundant supplies from Argentina and Brazil. Prices of sorghum and barley also decreased.
Wheat prices, however, increased due to weather concerns in parts of the European Union (EU), Russia, and the United States. International rice prices dipped slightly, mainly for Indica varieties, reflecting softer demand.
The vegetable oil price index rose 2.3% from May, led by gains in palm, soy, and rapeseed oils. Palm oil prices climbed nearly 5% on strong global demand.
Soy oil prices increased due to expectations of higher biofuel demand in Brazil and the USA, as well as stronger soybean prices in South America.
Rapeseed oil prices rose amid tight global supply, while sunflower oil prices eased due to improved production in the Black Sea region.
The meat price index increased by 2.1% in June, hitting a new all-time high. Prices rose for bovine, pig, and ovine meats, while poultry prices continued to fall.
Dairy prices up; sugar falls to lowest since 2021
The dairy price index rose 0.5% in June. Butter prices reached a record high amid tight supplies in Oceania and the EU, alongside strong demand from Asia. Cheese prices increased for the third consecutive month, while skim and whole milk powder prices declined due to ample supply and subdued demand.
The sugar price index dropped 5.2% from May, marking its fourth consecutive monthly decline and reaching its lowest level since April 2021. This decline reflects improved production prospects in Brazil, India, and Thailand.
Record global cereal production forecast
FAO also released its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief , forecasting global cereal production in 2025 to reach an all-time high of 2,925 million tonnes—up 0.5% from last month and 2.3% above 2024 levels.
This upward revision is driven by improved outlooks for wheat, maize, and rice. However, hot and dry weather in key producing regions could impact yields, particularly for maize.
Wheat output is forecast at 805.3 million tonnes, boosted by higher-than-expected yields in India and Pakistan. Maize production is expected to increase due to favourable conditions in Brazil and larger planted areas in India, offsetting declines in Ukraine and the EU caused by dry weather.
Rice production is projected to reach a record 555.6 million tonnes (milled basis), supported by better prospects in India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Viet Nam.
Despite strong overall forecasts, hot and dry weather in some key regions may reduce maize yields, posing risks to supply.
Global cereal use and stocks expected to increase
Global cereal utilisation in 2025/26 is forecast at 2,900 million tonnes, up 0.8% from 2024/25. Use of coarse grains has been revised upward, while wheat use forecasts were slightly lowered. Rice consumption is expected to rise, driven by food demand and ethanol production in India.
World cereal stocks at the end of the 2025/26 season are projected at 889.1 million tonnes, a 2.2% increase from opening levels. The global stocks-to-use ratio is expected to rise to 30.3%, indicating a comfortable supply outlook.
Cereal trade projected to grow
Global cereal trade in 2025/26 is predicted to reach 486.9 million tonnes, up 1.2% from the previous year. Wheat and rice exports are forecast to increase, with rice trade reaching an all-time high of 60.8 million tonnes. Maize trade is expected to decline slightly, while trade in barley and sorghum will likely rise.
The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), hosted by FAO, also published its monthly Market Monitor. This edition includes an article on strategic grain reserves (SGRs) and food security, offering principles to keep SGRs small, simple, and smart.
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