What's the cost to Florida's economy of Canadian tariffs and canceling spring break?
Miamians love to complain about tourists clogging the roads and jamming the beaches. But lately, we've had to wonder: What if they stopped coming?
It's mostly Canadians we're talking about. There are worrying indications that our neighbors to the north, long a staple of South Florida tourism, may be staying away this year in big enough numbers to make a dent in our service-based economy.
A recent story by the Miami Herald noted that flights from Quebec to Miami are down 20%, and the drop is more noticeable at the Fort Lauderdale airport, where airlines have reduced planned seat capacity from April all the way through June.
The decline in Canadian tourism is being felt by restaurants and small business owners, too. Some Canadians have cited political reasons for not visiting. Roger Quesnel, from Quebec, recently told the Miami Herald that his son-in-law doesn't '...want to come down here and spend money for Trump.' Some businesses cited rising costs to visit Florida along with the political climate as key reasons for the downturn.
But political reasons are definitely part of it. And Canadians are making their feelings known with billboards across Florida, including a couple along Interstate 75 near Miramar. One of the billboards, which the Canadian government paid for, tells drivers on the highway that President Trump's newly imposed tariffs amount to a tax 'on hardworking Americans.'
Will this really pinch South Florida? Stacy Ritter, president and CEO of Visit Lauderdale, the area's official marketing organization, said 'the region annually receives about 1.1 million Canadian tourists, whose absence could significantly impact the local economy.'
A loss of Canadian tourism is problematic for a state and an area that has long depended heavily on the tourism industry. Canadians have long been part of the the traditional Florida 'snow birds' — people who come south and stay during the winter months, then fly back home when spring arrives. We may gripe about their driving habits and how hard it is to get around at the height of the season, but our economy relies on tourists.
And don't forget Miami Beach also shooed away a lot of spring breakers in the last couple of years. The Beach's 'break up with spring break' campaign was understandable and needed: In 2023, Miami Beach saw a record number of shootings during spring break. The city commission pushed back, hard, with sky-high parking rates, lane narrowing, license plate readers and anti-spring break video that went viral.
It seems to have worked. Spring break weekends were much tamer this year and last. And people are still visiting Miami Beach. As Miami Beach Commissioner Alex Fernandez wrote in an opinion article for the Miami Herald earlier this month, data from the Miami Beach Visitor and Convention Authority showed hotel occupancy for the week ending March 22 at 85% — a 10.5% increase from two years ago.
That's a good sign of a resilient economy but he did also note that some businesses have been impacted by the change, with some restaurants and retailers feeling financial strain from a loss in foot traffic in March.
Uber drivers also have lamented a lower number of riders during what is usually a busy spring season.
Fernandez said Miami Beach must adapt. He's right. Perhaps it's time to revisit the former Mayor Dan Gelber's live-work-play vision to turn South Beach into a mixed-use cultural district.
But adapting — and broadening our economic base — should also be part of a larger conversation about Florida and its future as a tourist destination. Sun and beaches and the outdoors will always attract visitors. Florida is in no real danger when it comes to tourism. Still, we don't know yet how deeply the Trump tariff war will cut into the ability or desire of people to come to the Sunshine State.
What would Florida be without all its tourists? Let's hope we don't have to find out.
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