Price of this summer grilling staple remains at record high as beef lovers adapt

Fox News

14-07-2025

Beef prices in the U.S. continue to hit record highs, yet demand for the popular summer grilling staple remains strong — prompting shoppers, farmers and restaurants to adapt.
A pound of ground beef cost $6.67 just before the Fourth of July weekend, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), marking the highest price for beef ever recorded by the group.
It was up nearly 70 cents from May, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported it skyrocketed 16% from a year earlier and nearly 50% from five years ago.
"The main factors for our higher beef prices this year are driven by supply, demand and financial elements like higher interest rates," said Paul Savage, director of commodities forecasting at Chicago-based ArrowStream, which provides supply chain technology to restaurants.
A key driver behind the rising prices is the shrinking cattle population.
The national herd has declined to 86.7 million head, the lowest since 1951, according to the AFBF.
Prolonged droughts in cattle-producing states like Texas, Kansas and Nebraska have devastated grazing pastures, forcing many farmers to cull their herds.
At the same time, rising tariffs and ongoing trade disruptions have made cattle production more costly.
Additionally, cases of the New World Screwworm – a parasitic fly whose maggots burrow into and feed on the flesh of cattle – halted imports from Mexico to the U.S., though the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said some ports could reopen soon.
The U.S. gets most of its cattle imports from Mexico and Canada.
"The rising cost of ground beef is a perfect example of how global trade dynamics and domestic supply constraints collide," Robert Khachatryan, founder and CEO of California-based Freight Right Global Logistics, told Fox News Digital.
"Transporting cattle, which often involves multiple cross-country moves between birth, feedlots and processing, has become more costly due to fuel volatility and ongoing driver shortages in the freight sector," Khachatryan said.
"From ranch to processor to store shelf, every leg of the journey is costlier, and that cumulative pressure is showing up right on the price tag."
The USDA predicts that cattle prices will remain elevated into 2026, meaning retail beef prices likely won't drop for several years. Nonetheless, it remains Americans' second-favorite choice of meat, according to the USDA, with nearly 57 pounds of it being consumed per person annually.
While factors such as population growth, recently expanded food assistance benefits and the popularity of high-protein diets are contributing to slightly higher demand, overall consumption has not dramatically spiked.
"We're producing roughly the same amount of beef that we did in 2015 but, given a higher population, supply is tight," Savage said.
The U.S. population reached 340.1 million in July 2024, up from 336.8 million from the year before, marking the highest year-over-year increase since 2001, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Last year, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits were increased for many recipients, but President Donald Trump's "big, beautiful bill" includes cuts to the program.
"Potentially, lower interest rates [for farmers] would help and the recently announced changes to the SNAP program may also help lower prices," he said. "But it won't happen overnight."
In the meantime, the U.S. is importing more beef from Australia, New Zealand and Brazil, Savage said, and limiting beef exports to other countries to help stabilize supply. Farmers are also growing bigger animals to offset the lower cattle harvest.
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"Cattle weights are actually at an all-time high this year," he said.
As for the 130,000 restaurants that ArrowSteam services, many are swapping out expensive steaks for value-friendly options and changing menu recipes to include less expensive proteins, he said.
Shoppers are seeking out more affordable cuts such as chuck, round and top sirloin, Savage said, though it has driven up their prices more than premium options like strip steaks.
Some grocery store chains are leaning into beef and pork blends, chicken-focused products and seasonal promotions to steer shoppers toward more affordable proteins, according to Khachatryan.
The cost of other meat options, including chicken, has been more stable.
The price of pork chops has seen the lowest drop, with an average price of $14.13 for three pounds – almost 9% lower than in 2024, according to the AFBF.