Trump escalates nuclear tensions as Russia deadline nears

The Hill

3 days ago

President Trump is rattling the U.S.'s formidable nuclear saber amid his growing frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin's refusal to halt the war in Ukraine, just days ahead of Trump's deadline for a ceasefire.
Trump last week said he was moving two 'nuclear' submarines closer to Russia in response to threatening rhetoric from a top Kremlin official. On Sunday, he confirmed the vessels were now 'in the region.'
It's not clear if Trump is referring to nuclear-armed submarines or nuclear-powered attack submarines, but the confusion adds to the threat, which coincides with the president's Friday deadline for Russia to end the war or face further economic isolation.
Experts say it's a risky tactic unlikely to sway Putin, who has stood in the way of the president's campaign promise to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of returning to the White House.
'I don't see a lot of the benefits or the advantages, given that the Russians know very well that we have, for decades, had nuclear-armed submarines that could target what matters to them,' said Erin Dumbacher, the Stanton Nuclear Security Senior Fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations.
'I see more risk than reward to using statements like this.'
While experts don't see an imminent threat, they warn against careless and bombastic statements that could lead to risky miscalculation and confrontation.
'Does this mean that all of a sudden we should all be going to the cellar and locking ourselves in? No,' said former Rep. John Tierney (D-Mass.), who is the executive director of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, in a call with The Hill.
'Of major concern is nuclear rhetoric that could all too easily lead to mistake or miscalculation resulting in catastrophe. Trump's verbal engagement with an essentially powerless Russian politician is inappropriate and unhelpful,' he said in an earlier statement. 'What is needed is a steady hand, not someone who allows his anger at a personal insult to risk escalating to a dangerous situation.'
Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy for peace missions, is expected in Moscow later this week to push Putin to agree to a ceasefire. If that fails, Ukraine's supporters are hoping Trump will pull the trigger on 'secondary tariffs' on countries that import oil from Russia, in a bid to choke off the Kremlin's ability to finance its war.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Monday downplayed the movement of the U.S. submarines to its nearby waters, saying it does not want to be dragged into a tit-for-tat escalation.
'In general, of course, we would not want to get involved in such a controversy and would not want to comment on it in any way,' Peskov told reporters, according to Reuters. 'Of course, we believe that everyone should be very, very careful with nuclear rhetoric.'
Peskov added that Russia does not currently see the movement as an escalation.
'It is clear that very complex, very sensitive issues are being discussed, which, of course, are perceived very emotionally by many people,' he added.
Trump announced the move after what he called 'highly provocative statements' from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who is now the deputy chair of the country's security council.
Medvedev had criticized Trump's foreign policy and threat of sanctions. Earlier this week, Trump reduced a 50-day timeline for Russia to reach a ceasefire, after repeatedly lashing out at Putin for continued attacks on Ukraine.
Medvedev, a frequent anti-Western critic seen as having little decision-making power in the Russian government, said Trump is 'playing the ultimatum game with Russia: 50 days or 10,' and he warned about the risk of war between 'nuclear-armed adversaries.'
He also referenced Russia's 'dead hand' capabilities — a Cold War relic that describes Moscow's ability to launch a nuclear strike even if the Russian leadership is taken out.
'Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences,' Trump responded in a Truth Social post. 'I hope this will not be one of those instances.'
Trump has wielded America's nuclear arsenal in the past, particularly during his attempts to get North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions during his first term. Trump often raised the prospect of nuclear war with Pyongyang, boasting he would unleash 'fire and fury' on the country, and that he had a 'much bigger' and 'more powerful' nuclear arsenal.
Trump's latest move to send two U.S. nuclear submarines to circle near Russia is unlikely to cause major concern for Moscow, given that such vessels patrol oceans across the globe daily, experts said.
But the heightened rhetoric and concerns for miscalculation are underscoring key gaps in nuclear arms control and nonproliferation efforts.
The Russian Foreign Ministry on Monday said it was not bound by a moratorium on short- and intermediate-range missiles, in what Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said was a response to U.S. discussions to deploy long-range conventional missiles to Europe. The missiles were banned under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which Trump pulled out of in his first term in response to Russian violations of the treaty.
And the New START treaty between the U.S. and Russia is set to expire in February. The treaty put restrictions on America and Russia's nuclear arsenals and allowed reciprocal inspection and verification.
Russia suspended its participation in the treaty in 2023, and the U.S. took countermeasures that effectively suspended American participation, raising concerns among nuclear arms control experts about the next steps.
'I'm not seeing a lot of conversation about what would happen after that, in an effort to restrict or limit or even maintain the current levels,' said Dumbacher, who most recently was a CFR international affairs fellow with the Pentagon. In that role she helped craft language signed on by the U.S. and China that humans, and not artificial intelligence, should control nuclear weapons.
Dumbacher pointed out Russia is not a party to that agreement, which speaks to Medvedev's threats of Russia's 'dead hand' capabilities.
'I think every nuclear weapons country should sign on to some sort of confidence building measure like that, where we say we're never going to hand this decision over to a machine,' she said.
Even as Trump heightens his rhetoric against Russia, the president has highlighted nuclear arms control as a priority. In a speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, he said he wanted nuclear arms reduction talks with both Russia and China. And Trump boasts of halting fighting between Pakistan and India as averting a nuclear war.
Rose Gottemoeller, who served as deputy secretary-general of NATO from 2016-19, noted Trump's success in getting Putin in 2019 to a freeze on all nuclear warheads, as well as his signal more recently that he is not interested in the U.S. building more warheads.
'Today's U.S. political reality mandates that the next arms control treaty has to be wholly owned by President Donald Trump if it is to be successful,' Gottemoeller wrote in an article for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists late last month, pointing out that any new arms control treaty will need the ratification of Congress.
'With the willingness that President Trump has already shown to take on the issue of constraining warheads, the current U.S. administration has the opportunity to forge into new territory on nuclear arms control.'